Small Craft Advisory for Winds 113, NWS Medford, OR

236 
WHUS76 KMFR 180036
MWWMFR

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
436 PM PST SAT NOV 17 2012

PZZ350-356-376-181500-
/O.EXT.KMFR.SE.W.0054.000000T0000Z-121120T1800Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.SI.Y.0112.000000T0000Z-121118T1800Z/
/O.UPG.KMFR.SR.A.0008.121118T1800Z-121120T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KMFR.SR.W.0009.121118T1800Z-121120T0600Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLORENCE TO CAPE BLANCO OR OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE BLANCO OR TO PT. ST. GEORGE CA OUT 10 NM-
WATERS FROM CAPE BLANCO OR TO PT. ST. GEORGE CA FROM 10 TO 60 NM-
436 PM PST SAT NOV 17 2012

...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST TUESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM
PST SUNDAY...
...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 10 PM PST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS ISSUED A STORM
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 10 PM PST
MONDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY. THE HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST TUESDAY.


* WINDS: SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL INCREASE
  AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT TO 20 TO 30 KT. WINDS
  WILL INCREASE FURTHER ON SUNDAY TO GALE FORCE WITH SOME GUSTS AT
  OR ABOVE STORM FORCE DEVELOPING NORTH OF ABOUT GOLD BEACH IN THE
  AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT A LOW LEVEL JET
  STREAM WILL DEVELOP WEST OF THE COAST CAUSING SOUTH WINDS TO
  PEAK AT 40 TO 50 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 50 TO 65 KNOTS NORTH AND WEST
  OF ABOUT BROOKINGS.

* SEAS: COMBINED SOUTHWEST SEAS OF 11 TO 14 FEET AT A DOMINANT
  PERIOD OF 14 SECONDS THIS EVENING WILL STEEPEN FURTHER AND BUILD
  TO A VERY STEEP 15 TO 18 FEET OVERNIGHT. AS WINDS INCREASE TO
  STORM FORCE ON SUNDAY COMBINED SEAS OF 14 TO 18 FT ARE EXPECTED
  TO CONTINUE...BUT THEY WILL STEEPEN SUBSTANTIALLY. SUNDAY NIGHT
  THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SEAS WILL BUILD EVEN FURTHER REACHING 22 TO
  27 FEET OVER MOST OF THE AREA.

* AREAS AFFECTED: WHILE ALL AREAS WILL BE AFFECTED...CONDITIONS
  ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF AND INSIDE OF ABOUT 5 NAUTICAL MILES OF
  BROOKINGS WILL BE A BIT LESS HAZARDOUS THAN ELSEWHERE. THE MOST
  HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FROM GOLD BEACH NORTHWARD.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING MEANS HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE
IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN
PORT...OR TAKE SHELTER UNTIL WAVES SUBSIDE.  COMMERCIAL VESSELS
SHOULD PREPARE FOR ROUGH SEAS AND CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR
TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL HAZARDOUS SEAS SUBSIDE.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR WIND MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 23 TO
33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

A STORM WARNING MEANS THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO ALL
VESSELS. ALL SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT.

&&

$$

PZZ370-181500-
/O.EXT.KMFR.SE.W.0054.000000T0000Z-121120T1800Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.SI.Y.0113.000000T0000Z-121118T1800Z/
/O.UPG.KMFR.SR.A.0008.121118T1800Z-121120T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KMFR.SR.W.0009.121118T1800Z-121120T0600Z/
WATERS FROM FLORENCE TO CAPE BLANCO OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-
436 PM PST SAT NOV 17 2012

...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST TUESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM
PST SUNDAY...
...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 10 PM PST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS ISSUED A STORM
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 10 PM PST
MONDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY. THE HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST TUESDAY.


* WINDS: SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL INCREASE
  AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT TO 20 TO 30 KT. WINDS
  WILL INCREASE FURTHER ON SUNDAY TO GALE FORCE WITH GUSTS AT OR
  ABOVE STORM FORCE DEVELOPING AROUND NOON. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
  MONDAY NIGHT A LOW LEVEL JET STREAM WILL DEVELOP WEST OF THE
  COAST CAUSING SOUTH WINDS TO PEAK AT 45 TO 50 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
  55 TO 65 KNOTS.

* SEAS: COMBINED SOUTHWEST SEAS OF 14 TO 16 FEET AT A DOMINANT
  PERIOD OF 14 SECONDS THIS EVENING WILL STEEPEN FURTHER AND BUILD
  TO A VERY STEEP 17 TO 19 FEET OVERNIGHT. AS WINDS INCREASE TO
  STORM FORCE ON SUNDAY COMBINED SEAS OF 17 TO 19 FT ARE EXPECTED
  TO CONTINUE...BUT THEY WILL STEEPEN SUBSTANTIALLY. SUNDAY NIGHT
  THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT SEAS WILL BUILD EVEN FURTHER REACHING 23 TO
  27 FEET OVER MOST OF THE AREA.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING MEANS HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE
IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN
PORT...OR TAKE SHELTER UNTIL WAVES SUBSIDE.  COMMERCIAL VESSELS
SHOULD PREPARE FOR ROUGH SEAS AND CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR
TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL HAZARDOUS SEAS SUBSIDE.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR WIND MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 23 TO
33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

A STORM WARNING MEANS THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO ALL
VESSELS. ALL SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT.

&&

$$

BTL

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD

372 
WHUS76 KMFR 181050
MWWMFR

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
250 AM PST SUN NOV 18 2012

PZZ350-356-376-190000-
/O.EXT.KMFR.SE.W.0054.000000T0000Z-121121T0600Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.SI.Y.0112.000000T0000Z-121118T1800Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.SR.W.0009.121118T1800Z-121120T0600Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLORENCE TO CAPE BLANCO OR OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE BLANCO OR TO PT. ST. GEORGE CA OUT 10 NM-
WATERS FROM CAPE BLANCO OR TO PT. ST. GEORGE CA FROM 10 TO 60 NM-
250 AM PST SUN NOV 18 2012

...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST TUESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM
PST THIS MORNING...
...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
10 PM PST MONDAY...

THE HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST
TUESDAY. A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS
MORNING TO 10 PM PST MONDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING. 

* WINDS: SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT WILL INCREASE FURTHER LATE
  THIS MORNING TO GALE FORCE 35 TO 45 KT WITH GUSTS AT OR ABOVE
  STORM FORCE DEVELOPING NORTH OF ABOUT GOLD BEACH IN THE
  AFTERNOON. SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT A LOW LEVEL JET
  STREAM WILL DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE COAST CAUSING SOUTH WINDS
  TO INCREASE TO STORM FORCE FROM BROOKINGS NORTH. WINDS WILL
  PEAK AT 45 TO 55 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 55 TO 65 KNOTS ON MONDAY. 

* SEAS: COMBINED SOUTHWEST SEAS OF 15 TO 18 FEET AT A DOMINANT
  PERIOD OF 14 SECONDS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. THEN AS WINDS
  INCREASE TO STORM FORCE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS
  AFTERNOON...COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 16 TO 20 FT AND STEEPEN
  SUBSTANTIALLY AS WIND WAVES BUILD. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
  NIGHT SEAS WILL BUILD EVEN FURTHER REACHING 22 TO 27 FEET OVER
  MOST OF THE AREA. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
  TUESDAY TO 14 TO 18 FEET.

* AREAS AFFECTED:THE MOST HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FROM
  GOLD BEACH NORTHWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. THEN ON MONDAY...ALL
  AREAS WILL BE AFFECTED...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST
  SOUTH OF AND INSIDE OF ABOUT 5 NAUTICAL MILES OF BROOKINGS WILL
  BE A BIT LESS HAZARDOUS THAN ELSEWHERE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING MEANS HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE
IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN
PORT...OR TAKE SHELTER UNTIL WAVES SUBSIDE.  COMMERCIAL VESSELS
SHOULD PREPARE FOR ROUGH SEAS AND CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR
TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL HAZARDOUS SEAS SUBSIDE.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR WIND MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 23 TO
33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

A STORM WARNING MEANS THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO ALL
VESSELS. ALL SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT.

&&

$$

PZZ370-190000-
/O.EXT.KMFR.SE.W.0054.000000T0000Z-121121T0600Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.SI.Y.0113.000000T0000Z-121118T1800Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.SR.W.0009.121118T1800Z-121120T0600Z/
WATERS FROM FLORENCE TO CAPE BLANCO OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-
250 AM PST SUN NOV 18 2012

...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST TUESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM
PST THIS MORNING...
...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
10 PM PST MONDAY...

THE HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST
TUESDAY. A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS
MORNING TO 10 PM PST MONDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING. 

* WINDS: SOUTH WINDS 25 TO 30 KT WILL INCREASE FURTHER LATE THIS
  MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON TO GALE FORCE 35 TO 45 KT WITH GUSTS
  AT OR ABOVE STORM FORCE. SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT A
  LOW LEVEL JET STREAM WILL DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE COAST CAUSING
  SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE TO STORM FORCE. WINDS WILL PEAK AT 45
  TO 55 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 55 TO 65 KNOTS ON MONDAY.

* SEAS: COMBINED SOUTHWEST SEAS OF 15 TO 18 FEET AT A DOMINANT
  PERIOD OF 14 SECONDS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. THEN AS WINDS
  INCREASE TO STORM FORCE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS
  AFTERNOON...COMBINED SEAS WILL BUILD TO 16 TO 20 FT AND STEEPEN
  SUBSTANTIALLY AS WIND WAVES BUILD. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
  NIGHT SEAS WILL BUILD EVEN FURTHER REACHING 22 TO 27 FEET OVER
  MOST OF THE AREA. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
  TUESDAY TO 14 TO 18 FEET.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING MEANS HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE
IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN
PORT...OR TAKE SHELTER UNTIL WAVES SUBSIDE.  COMMERCIAL VESSELS
SHOULD PREPARE FOR ROUGH SEAS AND CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR
TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL HAZARDOUS SEAS SUBSIDE.

SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR WIND MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 23 TO
33 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE
OPERATING SMALLER VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

A STORM WARNING MEANS THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO ALL
VESSELS. ALL SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT.

&&

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD

253 
WHUS76 KMFR 181657
MWWMFR

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
857 AM PST SUN NOV 18 2012

PZZ350-356-376-190100-
/O.CAN.KMFR.SI.Y.0112.000000T0000Z-121118T1800Z/
/O.EXT.KMFR.SR.W.0009.121118T1657Z-121120T0600Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.SE.W.0054.000000T0000Z-121121T0600Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLORENCE TO CAPE BLANCO OR OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE BLANCO OR TO PT. ST. GEORGE CA OUT 10 NM-
WATERS FROM CAPE BLANCO OR TO PT. ST. GEORGE CA FROM 10 TO 60 NM-
857 AM PST SUN NOV 18 2012

...STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST MONDAY...
...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST
TUESDAY...

THE STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST MONDAY. A
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST TUESDAY.

* WINDS: SOUTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT THIS
  MORNING WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...REACHING STORM
  FORCE 40 TO 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
  THIS EVENING. WINDS MAY DECREASE OVERNIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE
  AGAIN MONDAY MORNING...TO 45 TO 55 KT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 70
  KT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* SEAS: COMBINED SEAS OF 18 TO 22 FEET THIS MORNING WILL BUILD
  THROUGH THE DAY AS WINDS INCREASE. PERIODS WILL ALSO SHORTEN AS
  WIND WAVES INCREASE WITH SEAS BECOMING EXTREMELY STEEP THIS
  AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING TONIGHT. VERY STEEP...DANGEROUS SEAS
  WILL CONTINUE MONDAY WITH COMBINED SEAS REACHING 22 TO 27 FEET
  BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL REMAIN VERY STEEP BUT BEGIN TO
  DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT.

* AREAS AFFECTED: THE MOST HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FROM
  GOLD BEACH NORTHWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON MONDAY...ALL AREAS
  WILL BE AFFECTED...BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE PARTICULARLY HAZARDOUS
  DOWN WIND...NORTH...OF THE CAPES...ESPECIALLY CAPE BLANCO.
  CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF AND INSIDE OF ABOUT 5
  NAUTICAL MILES OF BROOKINGS WILL BE A BIT LESS HAZARDOUS THAN
  ELSEWHERE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A STORM WARNING MEANS THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO ALL
VESSELS. ALL SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT.

A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING MEANS HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE
IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN
PORT...OR TAKE SHELTER UNTIL WAVES SUBSIDE.  COMMERCIAL VESSELS
SHOULD PREPARE FOR ROUGH SEAS AND CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR
TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL HAZARDOUS SEAS SUBSIDE.

&&

$$

PZZ370-190100-
/O.CAN.KMFR.SI.Y.0113.000000T0000Z-121118T1800Z/
/O.EXT.KMFR.SR.W.0009.121118T1657Z-121120T0600Z/
/O.CON.KMFR.SE.W.0054.000000T0000Z-121121T0600Z/
WATERS FROM FLORENCE TO CAPE BLANCO OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-
857 AM PST SUN NOV 18 2012

...STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST MONDAY...
...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST
TUESDAY...

THE STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST MONDAY. A
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST TUESDAY.

* WINDS: SOUTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT THIS
  MORNING WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...REACHING STORM
  FORCE 40 TO 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
  THIS EVENING. WINDS MAY DECREASE OVERNIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE
  AGAIN MONDAY MORNING...TO 45 TO 55 KT WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 70
  KT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* SEAS: COMBINED SEAS OF 18 TO 22 FEET THIS MORNING WILL BUILD
  THROUGH THE DAY AS WINDS INCREASE. PERIODS WILL ALSO SHORTEN AS
  WIND WAVES INCREASE WITH SEAS BECOMING EXTREMELY STEEP THIS
  AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING TONIGHT. VERY STEEP...DANGEROUS SEAS
  WILL CONTINUE MONDAY WITH COMBINED SEAS REACHING 22 TO 27 FEET
  BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL REMAIN VERY STEEP BUT BEGIN TO
  DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT.

* AREAS AFFECTED: ALL AREAS WILL BE AFFECTED TODAY THROUGH
  MONDAY...BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE PARTICULARLY HAZARDOUS ON MONDAY
  DOWN WIND...NORTH...OF THE CAPES...ESPECIALLY CAPE BLANCO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A STORM WARNING MEANS THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO ALL
VESSELS. ALL SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT.

A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING MEANS HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE
IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN
PORT...OR TAKE SHELTER UNTIL WAVES SUBSIDE.  COMMERCIAL VESSELS
SHOULD PREPARE FOR ROUGH SEAS AND CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR
TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL HAZARDOUS SEAS SUBSIDE.

&&

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
855 AM PST SAT NOV 17 2012

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING...WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION STREAMING AHEAD OF IT.
OVERNIGHT RAINFALL TOTALS WERE FOCUSED NEAR THE COAST AND TO THE
SOUTH OF MOUNT SHASTA. BOTH THESE AREAS RECEIVED ONE HALF INCH TO
OVER AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION. EAST SIDE AREAS MEASURED AROUND A
QUARTER INCH OF PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS ARE STILL ABOVE 5000
FEET PER RECENT OBSERVATIONS. TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE FRONT WILL
SWING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...SPREADING ANOTHER HALF INCH TO INCH OF
RAINFALL AT THE COAST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA NEAR MOUNT SHASTA...AND
QUARTER INCH EAST OF THE CASCADES. WEST SIDE VALLEYS WILL RECEIVE
BETWEEN A TENTH AND QUARTER INCH. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5500 FEET NEAR MOUNT SHASTA. SEE
DETAILS AT WSWMFR.  SNOW LEVELS TONIGHT WILL LOWER TO NEAR PASS
LEVEL BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET...WITH HWY 140 NEAR LAKE OF THE WOODS
EXPECTED TO MEASURE SEVERAL INCHES OVERNIGHT. MOST PRECIPITATION
WILL TAPER OFF AS SNOW LEVELS DROP SO NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW IMPACTS
ARE EXPECTED.

AFTER A RELATIVE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION SUNDAY BUT A SHARP
INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL SEND
ABUNDANT RAINFALL TO THE COAST AND JUST INLAND LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. PLEASE SEE THE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS ON
THIS HIGH-IMPACT PRECIPITATION AND WIND EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING ALONG THE
COAST, WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND EAST OF
THE CASCADES IN OREGON. LOCAL IFR CIGS/VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO
OCCURRING IN VALLEY FOG IN THE ROGUE VALLEY...INCLUDING KMFR...WITH
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND 16-18Z.

A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BRINGING  AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY  PRECIPITATION. AS
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS...EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS
TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED  EXCEPT
IN AREAS WHERE DOWNSLOPING SOUTH WINDS WILL CREATE ISLANDS OF  VFR
CONDITIONS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE FROM
THE CASCADES WEST UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES. BEHIND THE
FRONT...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH ISOLATED MVFR
CIGS...BUT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN WEST OF THE CASCADES
TONIGHT. ALSO LOCAL IFR CIGS/VISIBILITIES IN FOG IS POSSIBLE IN
INLAND VALLEYS TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 AM PST SAT NOV 17 2012/

DISCUSSION...THE BIG PICTURE OF THE WEATHER IN OUR AREA IS THAT A
SERIES OF FRONTS WILL BRING VERY WET AND WINDY CONDITIONS AT LEAST
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THERE WAS NO CHANGE NECESSARY TO THE SNOW HEADLINE OR THE WIND
HEADLINES THAT ARE IN EFFECT. BUT THERE WERE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE MARINE HEADLINES. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN SISKIYOU COUNTY ABOVE 5500 FEET THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A BURST OF HIGHER INTENSITY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF A CUTOFF LOW HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO MODOC AND SOUTHERN LAKE
COUNTIES LATER THIS MORNING WHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT REACHES THE
COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS OUR AREA...REACHING THE
CASCADES IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE EXITING INTO EASTERN OREGON AND
NEVADA LATE THIS EVENING. STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL TOTALS AT SOUTHERLY FACING
SLOPES ESPECIALLY IN CURRY, JOSEPHINE, AND WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF SISKIYOU COUNTY. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE AROUND 5500 TO
6000 FEET TODAY. BUT AT THE BACK EDGE OF THE FRONT IT WILL DIP TO
AROUND 4500 TO 5000 FEET THIS EVENING WITH A BRIEF LIGHT
ACCUMULATION OF UP TO A COUPLE INCHES POSSIBLE.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING WITH A WEAKENING OF SOUTH WINDS THOUGH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL PROVIDE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVER THE WEST SIDE. THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE VERY STRONG AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STORM
FORCE WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH WINDS INCLUDING GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
DEVELOPING AT THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GUSTY AND STRONG SOUTH
WINDS WILL DEVELOP INLAND MONDAY. WINDS IN THE ROGUE VALLEY MAY
REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ON MONDAY BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
AT THE COAST...OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ACROSS THE EAST SIDE AND
ESPECIALLY IN BOTH THE SOUTHERN SHASTA VALLEY FROM WEED TO AROUND
LAKE SHASTINA AND IN LAKE COUNTY NEAR SILVER LAKE.

THE FRONT WILL GET HUNG UP ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE WEST SIDE ALL
THE WAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS LONG DURATION RAINFALL WILL
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON CREEKS AND RIVERS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR IN CURRY COUNTY WITH AN
EVENT TOTAL OF AROUND 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. BUT, RAIN TOTALS WILL
LIKELY ALSO BE NOTEWORTHY IN COOS, DOUGLAS, JOSEPHINE AND WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTIES. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH DURING THE PERIOD
OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION...GENERALLY ABOVE 6000 FEET.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE
BUT THERE IS NOT YET GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING, STRENGTH
AND TRACK OF SYSTEMS. I HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF AND CONTINUED
WITH A BROAD BRUSH OF PRECIPITATION LIKELY ON THE WEST SIDE AND A
CHANCE ON THE EAST SIDE. THE 06Z GFS FOLLOWS ITS 00Z RUN IN
INDICATING STRONGER RIDGING INTO CALIFORNIA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY THAN WAS SHOWN IN ITS EARLIER RUNS OR SHOWN BY THE ECMWF.
MEANTIME...THE 00Z ECMWF WOULD BRING A WEAK TO MODERATELY STRONG
SYSTEM EAST INTO OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH THE SNOW LEVEL AROUND 5000 FEET. THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS
OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAIN OUT OF PHASE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION CONTINUING TO BE COLDER AND WETTER
THAN THE GFS.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ORZ030-031.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     ORZ029>031.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ021-022-024-027-028.

CA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     CAZ085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR CAZ080>083.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING ABOVE 5500
     FEET FOR CAZ082-083.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ081.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-376.
     STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR PZZ350.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR PZZ370.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY
     FOR PZZ376.

SK/DW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
708 AM PST SAT NOV 17 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0708 AM     HEAVY RAIN       NE BROOKINGS            42.06N 124.29W
11/17/2012  M1.30 INCH       CURRY              OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR ACCUMULATION

&&

BUNKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
714 AM PST SAT NOV 17 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0708 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 NNW BROOKINGS         42.12N 124.32W
11/17/2012  M2.27 INCH       CURRY              OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR ACCUMULATION

&&

BUNKER