River Flood Watch 33, NWS Medford, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
347 PM PST SAT DEC 1 2012

.SHORT TERM...
THE MOST INTENSE WEATHER SYSTEM OF THE MOST RECENT STORM SERIES...FROM
A POTENTIAL CUMULATIVE IMPACT PERSPECTIVE...IS MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. RAINFALL RATES WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT...PEAKING IN THE 10PM TO 6AM PST TIME FRAME. SNOW LEVELS
CURRENTLY NEAR 6500 FEET WILL CLIMB TO 7000 TO 8000 FEET AT MOST
LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT ONLY TO COME CRASHING DOWN TO NEAR 4500 FEET
BETWEEN 6AM AND 10AM PST SUNDAY MORNING. A NUMBER OF AREAL FLOOD
WATCHES...FLOOD WATCHES FOR THE COQUILLE RIVER...AND WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. ADDITIONALLY...THE COQUILLE
AT COQUILLE IS UNDER A FLOOD WARNING.

THE BOTTOM LINE WITH THIS NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS THAT IT IS A QUICK
HITTER...CAPABLE OF VERY HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN ABOUT A 12 HOURS
TIME PERIOD. HAVE BEEN CONSULTING WITH THE PORTLAND RIVER FORECAST
CENTER MUCH OF THE DAY RELATED TO THIS. CONCERNS ARE THAT ALREADY
SATURATED GROUND MEANS RUNOFF WILL OCCUR IMMEDIATELY AT MOST WEST
SIDE LOCATIONS AS PRECIPITATION RATES SKY ROCKET OVERNIGHT. MODELS
INDICATE THAT THERE IS A GOOD POTENTIAL OF SOME DAILY RAINFALL
RECORDS BEING APPROACHED FOR SUNDAY...BUT WE ARE LIKELY TO FALL
SHORT ONLY BECAUSE OF PRECIPITATION DURATION BEING ONLY ABOUT 12
HOURS. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS LIKELY...AND CREEK AND
RIVER FLOODING IN POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT THE CASCADES WESTWARD.
PLEASE SEE THE AREAL FLOOD WATCH FOR MORE SPECIFICS.

SUNDAY MORNING THE FRONT WILL RAPIDLY SWING THROUGH WITH SHOWERS
AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS. BTL

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK...
WE'LL CATCH A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME WILL BE WEST OF THE CASCADES WITH
MOST OF IT FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST...BUT WERE NOT EXPECTING ANY
EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS. THE NEXT FOCUS OF CONCERN IS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE EC AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING ANOTHER STRONG STORM REACHING THE OREGON COAST. THE EC
SHOWS A DEEPER LOW DEVELOPING JUST OUTSIDE OF 130 W AND 40 N AND
TRACKING NORTHEAST TOWARDS VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE GFS IS NOT AS
STRONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW BUT THE TRACK IS SIMILAR. THE CONCERN
WITH THIS STORM IS THAT IT WILL HAVE A TROPICAL CONNECTION AND
THIS IS BEING SUPPORTED BY THE FORECAST WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT.
THIS MEANS WE COULD GET ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN
COOS...CURRY...JOSEPHINE AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTIES WHICH MAY
RESULT IN ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS AND POSSIBLE DEBRIS FLOWS
AND MUDSLIDES IN THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND POSSIBLY EAST OF THE
CASCADES.

THINGS FINALLY START TO IMPROVE WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT MOVING
SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN DECREASING
PRECIPITATION. WEAKER SYSTEMS WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS TIME
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER AND NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.AVIATION...
BASED ON THE 01/18Z TAF CYCLE

THERE IS A RISK OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE UMPQUA BASIN THIS
EVENING INCLUDING KRBG DUE A RAPID DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL FOR WIND SPEED SHEAR AT THE
COAST...BUT KEPT IT OUT OF THE TAF FOR KOTH WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL DUE TO LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
SOUTH. STEADY PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CIGS WILL RETURN TO THE COAST
AND WEST SIDE THIS EVENING.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ029>031.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM PST SUNDAY ABOVE 4500
     FEET FOR ORZ030.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ027-028.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM PST SUNDAY ABOVE 4500
     FEET FOR ORZ027-028.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     ORZ021-022.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ORZ021-022-024.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM PST THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR ORZ023-025-026.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     CAZ084-085.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM PST SUNDAY ABOVE 4500
     FEET FOR CAZ080.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR CAZ080.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM PST THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR CAZ081>083.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ081.

PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

BTL/PETRUCELLI/SPILDE

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
337 PM PST SAT DEC 01 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 WSW OBRIEN            42.06N 123.73W
12/01/2012  M2.60 INCH       JOSEPHINE          OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            330PM TO 330PM.

&&

GLASER