River Flood Watch 14, NWS Medford, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
907 AM PDT WED MAR 28 2012

.DISCUSSION...TODAY REPRESENSTS A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WIND AND
PRECIPITATION FOR THE AREA...NOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM THAT DUMPED HEAVY SNOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...LIGHTER
AMOUNTS EAST OF THE CASCADES...AND HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE
COAST RANGE. GIVEN THE DEPICTED INSTABILITY OFFSHORE PER SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND ON THE MORNING MEDFORD BALLOON SOUNDING...SOME SHOWERS
WITH ACCOMPANYING GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY BUT WARMING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES SHOULD PREVENT THESE FROM
BEING NUMEROUS.

A FRONT WILL ALIGN ITSELF NEAR THE OREGON COAST WITH DEEP MOISTURE
TRAINING OVER IT...RESULTING IN HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR THE COAST AND
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN INLAND. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD BE ABOVE MOST
MAJOR PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THIS WILL BE GOOD FOR
TRAVELING BUT RESULT IN RISING RIVERS...CREEKS AND STREAMS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IS LIKELY TO BE A SIGNIFANT HEAVY
PRECIPITATION EVENT...AND I ENCOURAGE YOU TO READ THE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW AND STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES IN THE UPCOMING DAYS.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE WINDY AND SHOWERY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LOWERING SNOW LEVELS BELOW 4000 FEET.

PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS AND A
LOOK INTO THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EAST OF THE CASCADES AND
IN SOME WEST SIDE VALLEYS THIS MORNING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES EAST. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A
CONCERN TODAY...BUT WILL BE AN ISSUE AT THE COAST LATE THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR WIND SPEED SHEAR DEVELOPING.
WIND SPEED SHEAR IS ALSO A CONCERN IN THE UMPQUA BASIN AND ROGUE
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT IS LIKELY TO OCCUR LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY PER GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENT
OUTPUT...AND A TRAIN OF DEEP MOISTURE UPSTREAM OVER THE PACIFIC PORTRAYED
BY CIRA MOISTURE IMAGERY. THIS EVENT WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT CURRY
COUNTY BUT EFFECTS COULD BE FELT ANYWHERE ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CASCADES THROUGH FRIDAY. A HOST OF PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
THIS...AND THEY INCLUDE A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE COQUILLE RIVER AT
COQUILLE AT PDXFLWMFR...AN AN AEREAL FLOOD WATCH FOR RISING
CREEKS...RIVERS...AND STREAMS...AND A FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK AT
PDXESFMFR. RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS WILL START TO RISE THURSDAY
MORNING AND LIKELY CONTINUE RISING THROUGH SATURDAY AT LEAST.
PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE FORECAST FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM PDT WED MAR 28 2012/

DISCUSSION...CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS THE UPPER LOW CENTERED
NEAR 45N/132 W AND MOVING TOWARDS WESTERN WASHINGTON. MEANWHILE THE
LAST OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS MOVING OVER THE CASCADES AND SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SHORTWAVE HAS
BROUGHT A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY WET SNOW OVER THE SISKIYOUS
AND CASCADES WITH 1-2 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES. BECAUSE OF THIS
A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 5 AM PDT. DETAILS ON
THIS CAN BE FOUND AT PDXWSWMFR.

WE'LL FINALLY CATCH A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE WEATHER TODAY. THAT'S
THE GOOD NEWS. THE BAD NEWS IS THAT ANOTHER STRONG FRONT IS HEADING
OUR WAY AND WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AND STRONG WINDS TO THE COAST. WINDS WILL CRANK UP
ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TO FOLLOW EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CURRENT GUIDANCE
SHOWS 950 MB WINDS PUSHING NEAR 78 KTS NEAR CAPE BLANCO AND POINTS
NORTH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND WE'LL BE ISSUING A HIGH WIND WATCH
FOR THE COAST. THE REASON FOR THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS THAT WITH AN
ALREADY SATURATED AND UNSTABLE GROUND...IT WILL NOT TAKE AS MUCH
WIND TO TOPPLE TREES AND CAUSE SOME POWER OUTAGES. GUSTY WINDS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND EAST OF THE CASCADES BUT
THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THEY REACH WARNING CRITERIA.
WE'LL HAVE THE DAY SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS.

IF THE WIND WAS NOT ENOUGH. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD SOUTH ALONG THE OREGON COAST AS THE FRONT FRONT SLOWLY MOVES
SOUTH DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. NOW KEEP IN MIND THE GROUND IS
ALREADY SATURATED AND RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE ALREADY HIGH. SO IT'S A
GOOD BET WE COULD END UP WITH MORE FLOODING CONCERNS FOR THE COASTAL
RIVERS. DETAILS ON CURRENT FLOOD STATEMENTS CAN THIS CAN BE FOUND AT
ESFMFR AND FFAMFR.

THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL STALL THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER WITH AN AMPLE
MOISTURE SOURCE OVER THE PACIFIC TOWARDS 150W AND IS TAKING AIM AT
SOUTHWEST OREGON. IF THIS PANS OUT...THEN THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
GET POUNDED WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 6-10
INCHES OF PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN COOS...CURRY AND EXTREME WESTERN
JOSEPHINE COUNTIES BETWEEN THURSDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING.

WHILE THE DETAILS DIFFER BOTH THE GFS AND EC SHOW A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AND TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST OREGON WITH A COLD FRONT TO
FOLLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BRING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS AT THE COAST AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE
DETAILS ON THIS ARE LIKELY TO VARY OVER THE COMING DAYS..BUT BEARS
CLOSE WATCHING.

ALL SIGNS ARE POINTING TO A CONTINUED ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR
MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF STORMS IMPACTING THE FORECAST
AREA. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE THE DETAILS THIS FAR OUT ARE
SKETCHY...BUT WILL BE REFINED OVER TIME. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     ORZ021-022.

CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING ABOVE 3500
     FEET FOR CAZ080.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     PZZ350-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

SK/MP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
650 AM PDT WED MAR 28 2012

CAZ080>085-ORZ021>031-281500-
WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY-CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY-
SOUTH CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY-
NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST SISKIYOU COUNTY-
NORTHEAST SISKIYOU AND NORTHWEST MODOC COUNTIES-MODOC COUNTY-
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON COAST-CURRY COUNTY COAST-
CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY-EASTERN CURRY COUNTY AND JOSEPHINE COUNTY-
EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY FOOTHILLS-JACKSON COUNTY-
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES-
SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES-KLAMATH BASIN-
NORTHERN AND EASTERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND WESTERN LAKE COUNTY-
CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE COUNTY-
650 AM PDT WED MAR 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AND SOUTHWEST OREGON.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
831 AM PDT WED MAR 28 2012

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SSW OBRIEN            42.05N 123.71W
03/28/2012  M2.25 INCH       JOSEPHINE          OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL ENDING AT 8AM.
            REPORTED BY SPOTTER JO36

&&

IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
908 AM PDT WED MAR 28 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0907 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 SSW SUNNY VALLEY      42.59N 123.41W
03/28/2012  M1.56 INCH       JOSEPHINE          OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR RAINFALL

&&

SPILDE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1056 AM PDT WED MAR 28 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       W DUNSMUIR              41.23N 122.27W
03/28/2012  M3.47 INCH       SISKIYOU           CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR ACCUMULATION...1.25 ON GROUND...MOSTLY RAIN WITH
            SOME MELTED SNOW.

&&

BUNKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1126 AM PDT WED MAR 28 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY SNOW       4 SW WEED               41.37N 122.43W
03/28/2012  M4.5 INCH        SISKIYOU           CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            12 HOUR ACCUMULATION...

&&

BUNKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1128 AM PDT WED MAR 28 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1128 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 W MERLIN              42.52N 123.50W
03/28/2012  M2.60 INCH       JOSEPHINE          OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR ACCUMULATION

&&

BUNKER

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