Alert archive / Oregon / Red Flag Warnings in 2012

Red Flag Warning 11, NWS Medford, OR

August 16, 2012Modoc County, Siskiyou County, California; 9 counties in Oregon

NWS Medford, OR issued this red flag warning at Aug 16, 2012, 3:40 PM PDT for Modoc County, Siskiyou County, California; 9 counties in Oregon. It took effect at Aug 17, 2012, 4:00 PM PDT. It was in force for 31 hr. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Aug 16, 2012, 3:40 PM PDT (22:40 UTC)
In effect from
Aug 17, 2012, 4:00 PM PDT
Expired
Aug 18, 2012, 11:00 PM PDT
In force
31 hr
Issued by
NWS Medford, OR

Counties Modoc County, CA, Siskiyou County, CA, Coos County, OR, Curry County, OR, Douglas County, OR, Harney County, OR, Jackson County, OR, Josephine County, OR, Klamath County, OR, Lake County, OR, Lane County, OR

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Aug 18, 10:48 AM PDTHEAVY RAIN 0.335 N Keno, OR

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

The nearest sounding before it

Medford/Jackson, OR (KMFR), launched 12:00Z, 10.7 hours before the alert went out and 55 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Medford/Jackson, OR at 12:00Z on 2012-08-16Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Medford/Jackson, OR at 12:00Z on 2012-08-16The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 5 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
2319 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
9 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
5 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
1 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

591 
WWUS86 KMFR 162240
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
340 PM PDT THU AUG 16 2012

ORZ621-623-624-171400-
/O.UPG.KMFR.FW.A.0009.120817T2300Z-120819T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0011.120817T2300Z-120819T0300Z/
SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES-
KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT-WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST-
340 PM PDT THU AUG 16 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT
SATURDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES
621...623 AND 624...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT
SATURDAY. THIS UPGRADES THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 621...623 AND 624.

* THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
  LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
  OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A FOCUS FROM THE SISKIYOU
  MOUNTAINS NORTHEASTWARD UP THE CASCADES EASTWARD TO SUMMER RIM.

* OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY 
  THUNDERSTORMS.

* IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND VERY DRY FUELS WILL LIKELY
  RESULT IN NEW WILDFIRE STARTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

CAZ282-284-171400-
/O.EXT.KMFR.FW.A.0009.120817T2300Z-120819T0300Z/
SHASTA-TRINITY NATIONAL FOREST IN SISKIYOU COUNTY-
SISKIYOU COUNTY FROM THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS EAST AND SOUTH TO MT
SHASTA-
340 PM PDT THU AUG 16 2012

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE
ZONES 282 AND 284...

THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. 

* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 282 AND 284. 

* THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
  TO DEVELOP LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY CONTINUING
  OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WILL PRODUCE
  HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS THAN THOSE ON FRIDAY EVENING.

* OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY 
  THUNDERSTORMS.

* IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING MAY START NUMEROUS WILDFIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

&&

$$

CAZ285-ORZ625-171400-
/O.EXT.KMFR.FW.A.0009.120818T0600Z-120819T0600Z/
MODOC COUNTY EXCEPT FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN
LAKE AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTIES-
340 PM PDT THU AUG 16 2012

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE
ZONES 285 AND 625...

THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. 

* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 285 AND 625. 

* THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
  TO DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING WITH ACTIVITY CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND
  THROUGH SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WILL PRODUCE HIGHER
  RAIN AMOUNTS THAN THOSE ON FRIDAY EVENING.

* OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY 
  THUNDERSTORMS.

* IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING MAY START NUMEROUS WILDFIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

&&

$$

CAZ280-281-ORZ616-617-620-622-171400-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0009.120817T2300Z-120819T0300Z/
WESTERN KLAMATH NATIONAL FOREST-
CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY INCLUDING SHASTA VALLEY-UMPQUA BASIN-
UMPQUA NATIONAL FOREST-
WESTERN ROGUE BASIN INCLUDING THE ILLINOIS VALLEY-
EASTERN ROGUE VALLEY-
340 PM PDT THU AUG 16 2012

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS
FOR FIRE ZONES 280...281...616...617...620 AND 622...

* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 280...281...616...617...620 AND 622.

* THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
  LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
  WITH A FOCUS FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTHWARD ACROSS
  JOSEPHINE...JACKSON...AND SOUTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES. COVERAGE OF
  THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SATURDAY FROM THE UMPQUA
  DIVIDE NORTHEASTWARD, WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF OR COME
  TO AN END WEST OF THIS AREA AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
  FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL PRODUCE HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS THAN
  THOSE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

* OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY 
  THUNDERSTORMS.

* IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING MAY START NUMEROUS WILDFIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE
RED FLAG WARNINGS.

&&

$$

SPILDE/BTL

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD
12 follow-up statements
302 
WWUS86 KMFR 170428
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
928 PM PDT THU AUG 16 2012

CAZ285-ORZ625-171630-
/O.UPG.KMFR.FW.A.0009.120818T0600Z-120819T0600Z/
/O.EXB.KMFR.FW.W.0011.120818T0600Z-120819T0600Z/
MODOC COUNTY EXCEPT FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN
LAKE AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTIES-
928 PM PDT THU AUG 16 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 11 PM PDT
SATURDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES
285 AND 625...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 11 PM PDT
SATURDAY. THIS WARNING REPLACES THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 285 AND 625.

* THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
  FORECAST TO DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING WITH ACTIVITY CONTINUING 
  OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY 
  WILL PRODUCE HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS THAN THOSE ON FRIDAY 
  EVENING. 

* OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY 
  THUNDERSTORMS.

* IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING MAY START NUMEROUS WILDFIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH.

&&

$$

CAZ280>282-284-ORZ616-617-620-622-171630-
/O.UPG.KMFR.FW.A.0009.120817T2300Z-120819T0300Z/
/O.EXA.KMFR.FW.W.0011.120817T2300Z-120819T0300Z/
WESTERN KLAMATH NATIONAL FOREST-
CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY INCLUDING SHASTA VALLEY-SHASTA-
TRINITY NATIONAL FOREST IN SISKIYOU COUNTY-
SISKIYOU COUNTY FROM THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS EAST AND SOUTH TO MT
SHASTA-UMPQUA BASIN-UMPQUA NATIONAL FOREST-
WESTERN ROGUE BASIN INCLUDING THE ILLINOIS VALLEY-
EASTERN ROGUE VALLEY-
928 PM PDT THU AUG 16 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT
SATURDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES
280...281...616...617...620 AND 622...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT
SATURDAY. THIS WARNING REPLACES THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 280...281...616...617...620 AND 622.

* THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
  POSSIBLE LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE 
  OVERNIGHT WITH A FOCUS FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTHWARD 
  ACROSS JOSEPHINE...JACKSON...AND SOUTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES. 
  COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SATURDAY 
  FROM THE UMPQUA DIVIDE NORTHEASTWARD... WHILE THUNDERSTORMS 
  WILL TAPER OFF OR COME TO AN END WEST OF THIS AREA AROUND 
  MIDDAY SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL 
  PRODUCE HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS THAN THOSE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 

* OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY 
  THUNDERSTORMS.

* IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING MAY START NUMEROUS WILDFIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH.

&&

$$

ORZ621-623-624-171630-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0011.120817T2300Z-120819T0300Z/
SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES-
KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT-WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST-
928 PM PDT THU AUG 16 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM
PDT SATURDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES
621...623 AND 624...

* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 621...623 AND 624.

* THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
  DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO 
  CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A FOCUS FROM THE 
  SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS NORTHEASTWARD UP THE CASCADES EASTWARD TO 
  SUMMER RIM.

* OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY 
  THUNDERSTORMS.

* IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND VERY DRY FUELS WILL LIKELY 
  RESULT IN NEW WILDFIRE STARTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD
348 
WWUS86 KMFR 171242
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
542 AM PDT FRI AUG 17 2012

CAZ280>282-284-ORZ616-617-620>624-180100-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0011.120817T2300Z-120819T0300Z/
WESTERN KLAMATH NATIONAL FOREST-
CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY INCLUDING SHASTA VALLEY-SHASTA-
TRINITY NATIONAL FOREST IN SISKIYOU COUNTY-
SISKIYOU COUNTY FROM THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS EAST AND SOUTH TO MT
SHASTA-UMPQUA BASIN-UMPQUA NATIONAL FOREST-
WESTERN ROGUE BASIN INCLUDING THE ILLINOIS VALLEY-
SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS-EASTERN ROGUE VALLEY-SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES-
KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT-WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST-
542 AM PDT FRI AUG 17 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT
SATURDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES
280...281...282...284...616...617...620 AND 622...

* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 280...281...282...284...616...617...620 
  AND 622.

* THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
  LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
  A FOCUS FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTHWARD ACROSS
  JOSEPHINE...JACKSON...AND SOUTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES. COVERAGE OF
  THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SATURDAY FROM THE UMPQUA
  DIVIDE NORTHEASTWARD...WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF OR
  COME TO AN END WEST OF THIS AREA AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY.
  THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL PRODUCE HIGHER RAIN
  AMOUNTS THAN THOSE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

* OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY 
  THUNDERSTORMS.

* IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING MAY START NUMEROUS WILDFIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH.

&&

$$

CAZ285-ORZ625-180100-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0011.120818T0600Z-120819T0600Z/
MODOC COUNTY EXCEPT FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN
LAKE AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTIES-
542 AM PDT FRI AUG 17 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE
ZONES 285 AND 625...

* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 285 AND 625.

* THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
  TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH ACTIVITY CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND
  THROUGH SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WILL PRODUCE HIGHER
  RAIN AMOUNTS THAN THOSE THIS EVENING.

* OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY 
  THUNDERSTORMS.

* IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING MAY START NUMEROUS WILDFIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH.

&&

$$


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD
305 
WWUS86 KMFR 171342
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
642 AM PDT FRI AUG 17 2012

CAZ280>282-284-ORZ616-617-620>624-180145-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0011.120817T2300Z-120819T0300Z/
WESTERN KLAMATH NATIONAL FOREST-
CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY INCLUDING SHASTA VALLEY-SHASTA-
TRINITY NATIONAL FOREST IN SISKIYOU COUNTY-
SISKIYOU COUNTY FROM THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS EAST AND SOUTH TO MT
SHASTA-UMPQUA BASIN-UMPQUA NATIONAL FOREST-
WESTERN ROGUE BASIN INCLUDING THE ILLINOIS VALLEY-
SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS-EASTERN ROGUE VALLEY-SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES-
KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT-WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST-
642 AM PDT FRI AUG 17 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE
ZONES 280...281...282...284...616...617...620...621...622...AND 
623...

* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 280...281...282...284...616...617...
  620...621...622 AND 623.

* THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
  POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE 
  OVERNIGHT WITH A FOCUS FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTHWARD 
  ACROSS JOSEPHINE...JACKSON...AND SOUTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES. 
  COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SATURDAY 
  FROM THE UMPQUA DIVIDE NORTHEASTWARD...WHILE THUNDERSTORMS 
  WILL TAPER OFF OR COME TO AN END WEST OF THIS AREA AROUND 
  MIDDAY SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL 
  PRODUCE HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS THAN THOSE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 

* OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY 
  THUNDERSTORMS.

* IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING MAY START NUMEROUS WILDFIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH.

&&

$$

CAZ285-ORZ625-180145-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0011.120818T0600Z-120819T0600Z/
MODOC COUNTY EXCEPT FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN
LAKE AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTIES-
642 AM PDT FRI AUG 17 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE
ZONES 285 AND 625...

* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 285 AND 625.

* THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
  FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH ACTIVITY CONTINUING 
  OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY 
  WILL PRODUCE HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS THAN THOSE THIS EVENING. 

* OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY 
  THUNDERSTORMS.

* IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING MAY START NUMEROUS WILDFIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH.

&&

$$


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD
501 
WWUS86 KMFR 171425 CCA
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
719 AM PDT FRI AUG 17 2012

CORRECTED TO ADD FIRE ZONE 624 TO TEXT OF FIRST SEGMENT AND TO FINE
TUNE WORDING OF IMPACTS STATEMENT

CAZ280>282-284-ORZ616-617-620>624-180245-
/O.COR.KMFR.FW.W.0011.120817T2300Z-120819T0300Z/
WESTERN KLAMATH NATIONAL FOREST-
CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY INCLUDING SHASTA VALLEY-SHASTA-
TRINITY NATIONAL FOREST IN SISKIYOU COUNTY-
SISKIYOU COUNTY FROM THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS EAST AND SOUTH TO MT
SHASTA-UMPQUA BASIN-UMPQUA NATIONAL FOREST-
WESTERN ROGUE BASIN INCLUDING THE ILLINOIS VALLEY-
SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS-EASTERN ROGUE VALLEY-SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES-
KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT-WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST-
719 AM PDT FRI AUG 17 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE
ZONES 280...281...282...284...616...617...620...621...622...623
AND 624...

* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 280...281...282...284...616...617...
  620...621...622...623...AND 624...

* THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
  POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE 
  OVERNIGHT WITH A FOCUS FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTHWARD 
  ACROSS JOSEPHINE...JACKSON...AND SOUTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES. 
  COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SATURDAY 
  FROM THE UMPQUA DIVIDE NORTHEASTWARD...WHILE THUNDERSTORMS 
  WILL TAPER OFF OR COME TO AN END WEST OF THIS AREA AROUND 
  MIDDAY SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL 
  PRODUCE HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS THAN THOSE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 

* OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY 
  THUNDERSTORMS.

* IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING IS LIKELY TO START NUMEROUS
  WILDFIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH.

&&

$$

CAZ285-ORZ625-180245-
/O.COR.KMFR.FW.W.0011.120818T0600Z-120819T0600Z/
MODOC COUNTY EXCEPT FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN
LAKE AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTIES-
719 AM PDT FRI AUG 17 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE
ZONES 285 AND 625...

* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 285 AND 625.

* THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
  FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH ACTIVITY CONTINUING 
  OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY 
  WILL PRODUCE HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS THAN THOSE THIS EVENING. 

* OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY 
  THUNDERSTORMS.

* IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING IS LIKELY TO START NUMEROUS
  WILDFIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH.

&&

$$

BTL

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD
737 
WWUS86 KMFR 171804
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1104 AM PDT FRI AUG 17 2012

CAZ285-ORZ625-180430-
/O.EXT.KMFR.FW.W.0011.120817T2300Z-120819T0600Z/
MODOC COUNTY EXCEPT FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN
LAKE AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTIES-
1104 AM PDT FRI AUG 17 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE
ZONES 285 AND 625...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
11 PM PDT SATURDAY. 

* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 285 AND 625...WHICH INCLUDES PORTIONS
  OF MODOC...LAKE AND HARNEY COUNTIES. 

* THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
  TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY CONTINUING
  OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WILL
  PRODUCE HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS THAN THOSE THIS EVENING.

* OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY 
  THUNDERSTORMS.

* IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING IS LIKELY TO START NUMEROUS 
  WILDFIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH.

&&

$$

ORZ621-622-180430-
/O.EXT.KMFR.FW.W.0011.120817T2300Z-120818T1900Z/
SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS-EASTERN ROGUE VALLEY-
1104 AM PDT FRI AUG 17 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
NOON PDT SATURDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE
ZONES 621 AND 622...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
NOON PDT SATURDAY. 

* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 621 AND 622...WHICH INCLUDES PORTIONS
  OF JOSEPHINE...JACKSON AND SISKIYOU COUNTIES.

* THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
  LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
  OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN SISKIYOU...JOSEPHINE...JACKSON...AND
  SOUTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF OR COME
  TO AN END WEST OF THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY.
  THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL PRODUCE HIGHER RAIN
  AMOUNTS THAN THOSE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY 
  THUNDERSTORMS.

* IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING IS LIKELY TO START NUMEROUS 
  WILDFIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH.

&&

$$

CAZ280>282-ORZ616-620-180430-
/O.EXT.KMFR.FW.W.0011.120818T0600Z-120818T1900Z/
WESTERN KLAMATH NATIONAL FOREST-
CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY INCLUDING SHASTA VALLEY-SHASTA-
TRINITY NATIONAL FOREST IN SISKIYOU COUNTY-UMPQUA BASIN-
WESTERN ROGUE BASIN INCLUDING THE ILLINOIS VALLEY-
1104 AM PDT FRI AUG 17 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
PDT SATURDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES
280...281...282...616 AND 620...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON PDT SATURDAY. 

* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 280...281...282...616 AND 620.

* THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
  THEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
  OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL SISKIYOU...JOSEPHINE...
  JACKSON...AND SOUTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
  TAPER OFF OR COME TO AN END WEST OF THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS AROUND
  MIDDAY SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL
  PRODUCE HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS THAN THOSE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY 
  THUNDERSTORMS.

* IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING IS LIKELY TO START NUMEROUS 
  WILDFIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH.

&&

$$

CAZ284-ORZ617-623-624-180430-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0011.120817T2300Z-120819T0300Z/
SISKIYOU COUNTY FROM THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS EAST AND SOUTH TO MT
SHASTA-UMPQUA NATIONAL FOREST-SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES-
KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT-WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST-
1104 AM PDT FRI AUG 17 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE
ZONES 284...617...623 AND 624...

* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 623...624...284...AND 617.

* THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR LATE
  THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
  OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS SISKIYOU...JACKSON...DOUGLAS
  AND KLAMATH COUNTIES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
  CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT
  AND SATURDAY WILL PRODUCE HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS THAN THOSE THIS
  AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY 
  THUNDERSTORMS.

* IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING IS LIKELY TO START NUMEROUS 
  WILDFIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH.

&&

$$
DW

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD
144 
WWUS86 KMFR 172310
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
410 PM PDT FRI AUG 17 2012

CAZ285-ORZ625-181300-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-120819T0600Z/
MODOC COUNTY EXCEPT FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN
LAKE AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTIES-
410 PM PDT FRI AUG 17 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY
FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES 285 AND
625...

* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 285 AND 625...WHICH INCLUDES 
  PORTIONS OF MODOC...LAKE AND HARNEY COUNTIES. 

* THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
  ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
  THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WILL PRODUCE HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS THAN
  THOSE THIS EVENING.

* OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY 
  THUNDERSTORMS.

* IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING IS LIKELY TO START NUMEROUS 
  WILDFIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH.

&&

$$

CAZ284-ORZ617-623-624-181300-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-120819T0300Z/
SISKIYOU COUNTY FROM THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS EAST AND SOUTH TO MT
SHASTA-UMPQUA NATIONAL FOREST-SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES-
KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT-WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST-
410 PM PDT FRI AUG 17 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES 284...617...
623 AND 624...

* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 284...617...623...AND 624.

* THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ARE
  FORECAST TO CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS
  SISKIYOU...JACKSON...EASTERN DOUGLAS...KLAMATH AND LAKE
  COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WILL PRODUCE HIGHER RAIN
  AMOUNTS THAN THOSE THIS EVENING.

* OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY 
  THUNDERSTORMS.

* IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING IS LIKELY TO START NUMEROUS 
  WILDFIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH.

&&

$$

ORZ621-622-181300-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-120818T1900Z/
SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS-EASTERN ROGUE VALLEY-
410 PM PDT FRI AUG 17 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PDT SATURDAY FOR
ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES 621 AND 622...

* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 621 AND 622...WHICH INCLUDES 
  PORTIONSOF JOSEPHINE...JACKSON AND SISKIYOU COUNTIES. 

* THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
  TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN
  SISKIYOU...JOSEPHINE... JACKSON...AND SOUTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES.
  THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END WEST OF THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS
  AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE
  PRODUCE HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS THAN THOSE THIS EVENING.

* OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY 
  THUNDERSTORMS.

* IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING IS LIKELY TO START NUMEROUS 
  WILDFIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH.

&&

$$

CAZ280>282-ORZ616-620-181300-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0011.120818T0600Z-120818T1900Z/
WESTERN KLAMATH NATIONAL FOREST-
CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY INCLUDING SHASTA VALLEY-SHASTA-
TRINITY NATIONAL FOREST IN SISKIYOU COUNTY-UMPQUA BASIN-
WESTERN ROGUE BASIN INCLUDING THE ILLINOIS VALLEY-
410 PM PDT FRI AUG 17 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON PDT SATURDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE
ZONES 280...281...282...616 AND 620...

* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 280...281...282...616 AND 620.

* THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
  THEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
  OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL SISKIYOU... JOSEPHINE...
  JACKSON...AND SOUTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
  TAPER OFF OR COME TO AN END WEST OF THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS AROUND
  MIDDAY SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL
  PRODUCE HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS THAN ANY THAT FORM THIS EVENING.

* OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY 
  THUNDERSTORMS.

* IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING IS LIKELY TO START NUMEROUS 
  WILDFIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH.

&&

$$
DW

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD
028 
WWUS86 KMFR 181254
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
554 AM PDT SAT AUG 18 2012

CAZ285-ORZ625-190100-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-120819T0600Z/
MODOC COUNTY EXCEPT FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN
LAKE AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTIES-
554 AM PDT SAT AUG 18 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES
285 AND 625...

* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 285 AND 625...WHICH INCLUDES 
  PORTIONS OF MODOC...LAKE AND HARNEY COUNTIES.

* THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
  TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL
  PRODUCE HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS THAN THOSE FROM LAST NIGHT.

* OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY 
  THUNDERSTORMS.

* IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING IS LIKELY TO START NUMEROUS 
  WILDFIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH.

&&

$$

CAZ284-ORZ617-623-624-190100-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-120819T0300Z/
SISKIYOU COUNTY FROM THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS EAST AND SOUTH TO MT
SHASTA-UMPQUA NATIONAL FOREST-SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES-
KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT-WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST-
554 AM PDT SAT AUG 18 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES 284...617...
623 AND 624...

* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 284...617...623...AND 624.

* THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
  INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS SISKIYOU...JACKSON...EASTERN
  DOUGLAS...KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. 

* OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY 
  THUNDERSTORMS.

* IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING IS LIKELY TO START NUMEROUS 
  WILDFIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH.

&&

$$

CAZ280>282-ORZ616-620>622-181900-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-120818T1900Z/
WESTERN KLAMATH NATIONAL FOREST-
CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY INCLUDING SHASTA VALLEY-SHASTA-
TRINITY NATIONAL FOREST IN SISKIYOU COUNTY-UMPQUA BASIN-
WESTERN ROGUE BASIN INCLUDING THE ILLINOIS VALLEY-
SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS-EASTERN ROGUE VALLEY-
554 AM PDT SAT AUG 18 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR
ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES 616...620...621...
622...280...281 AND 282...

* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 616...620...621...622...280...281 AND
  282.


* THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
  THIS MORNING AND MOST SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE CASCADE
  FOOTHILLS AND IN EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY.


* OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY 
  THUNDERSTORMS.

* IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING IS LIKELY TO START NUMEROUS 
  WILDFIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH.

&&

$$


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD
714 
WWUS86 KMFR 181600
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
900 AM PDT SAT AUG 18 2012

CAZ280>282-ORZ616-620>622-181700-
/O.CAN.KMFR.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-120818T1900Z/
WESTERN KLAMATH NATIONAL FOREST-
CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY INCLUDING SHASTA VALLEY-SHASTA-
TRINITY NATIONAL FOREST IN SISKIYOU COUNTY-UMPQUA BASIN-
WESTERN ROGUE BASIN INCLUDING THE ILLINOIS VALLEY-
SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS-EASTERN ROGUE VALLEY-
900 AM PDT SAT AUG 18 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY
FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES 616...620...621... 622...280...281 AND 282...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 

* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 281...622...282...621...616...280 
  AND 620 

* THUNDERSTORMS...THE LAST OF A SERIES OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
  HAS MOVED NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
  ARE NOT FORECAST FOR AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES TODAY.

$$

CAZ284-181700-
/O.CAN.KMFR.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-120819T0300Z/
SISKIYOU COUNTY FROM THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS EAST AND SOUTH TO MT
SHASTA-
900 AM PDT SAT AUG 18 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY
FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES 284...617... 623 AND 624...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 

* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONE 284 

* THUNDERSTORMS...THE LAST OF A SERIES OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
  HAS MOVED NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
  ARE NOT FORECAST FOR TODAY.

$$

CAZ285-ORZ625-190400-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-120819T0600Z/
MODOC COUNTY EXCEPT FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN
LAKE AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTIES-
900 AM PDT SAT AUG 18 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES
285 AND 625...

* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 285 AND 625...WHICH INCLUDES 
  PORTIONS OF MODOC...LAKE AND HARNEY COUNTIES.

* THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
  TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL
  PRODUCE HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS THAN THOSE FROM FRIDAY EVENING.

* OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY 
  THUNDERSTORMS.

* IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING IS LIKELY TO START NUMEROUS 
  WILDFIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH.

&&

$$

ORZ617-623-624-190300-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-120819T0300Z/
UMPQUA NATIONAL FOREST-SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES-
KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT-WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST-
900 AM PDT SAT AUG 18 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES 284...617...
623 AND 624...

* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 284...617...623...AND 624.

* THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
  INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS SISKIYOU...JACKSON... EASTERN
  DOUGLAS...KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONLY BE
  ISOLATED IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF ZONE 623 AND SOUTHWEST
  PORTION OF ZONE 624.

* OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY 
  THUNDERSTORMS.

* IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING IS LIKELY TO START NUMEROUS 
  WILDFIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH.

&&

$$
DW

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD
628 
WWUS86 KMFR 181731
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1031 AM PDT SAT AUG 18 2012

ORZ617-623-624-190300-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-120819T0300Z/
UMPQUA NATIONAL FOREST-SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES-
KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT-WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST-
1031 AM PDT SAT AUG 18 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
   FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES 617...623
   AND 624...

* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 617...623...AND 624.

* THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
  CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS SISKIYOU...JACKSON... 
  EASTERN DOUGLAS...KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORMS 
  WILL ONLY BE ISOLATED IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF ZONE 623 AND 
  SOUTHWEST PORTION OF ZONE 624.

* OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY 
  THUNDERSTORMS.

* IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING IS LIKELY TO START NUMEROUS 
  WILDFIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH.

&&

$$

CAZ285-ORZ625-190545-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-120819T0600Z/
MODOC COUNTY EXCEPT FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN
LAKE AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTIES-
1031 AM PDT SAT AUG 18 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
   EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES
   285 AND 625...

* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 285 AND 625...WHICH INCLUDES 
  PORTIONS OF MODOC...LAKE AND HARNEY COUNTIES.

* THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
  FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS 
  TODAY WILL PRODUCE HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS THAN THOSE FROM FRIDAY 
  EVENING.

* OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY 
  THUNDERSTORMS.

* IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING IS LIKELY TO START NUMEROUS 
  WILDFIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH.

&&

$$
DW

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD
910 
WWUS86 KMFR 182223
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
323 PM PDT SAT AUG 18 2012

ORZ617-623-624-190300-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-120819T0300Z/
UMPQUA NATIONAL FOREST-SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES-
KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT-WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST-
323 PM PDT SAT AUG 18 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING
FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES 617...623   
AND 624...

* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 617...623...AND 624.

* THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
  OVER THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND ACROSS KLAMATH AND WESTERN
  LAKE COUNTIES. 

* OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY 
  THUNDERSTORMS.

* IMPACTS...LIGHTNING FROM THUNDERSTORMS WOULD LIKELY START
  WILDFIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH.

&&

$$

CAZ285-ORZ625-190600-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-120819T0600Z/
MODOC COUNTY EXCEPT FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN
LAKE AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTIES-
323 PM PDT SAT AUG 18 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES   
285 AND 625...

* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 285 AND 625...WHICH INCLUDES 
  PORTIONS OF MODOC...LAKE AND HARNEY COUNTIES.

* THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
  OVER MODOC...LAKE AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTIES.

* OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY 
  THUNDERSTORMS.

* IMPACTS...LIGHTNING FROM THUNDERSTORMS WOULD LIKELY START
  WILDFIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH.

&&

$$
DW

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD
977 
WWUS86 KMFR 190251
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
751 PM PDT SAT AUG 18 2012

ORZ617-623-624-190400-
/O.EXP.KMFR.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-120819T0300Z/
UMPQUA NATIONAL FOREST-SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES-
KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT-WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST-
751 PM PDT SAT AUG 18 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES 617...623 AND
624...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING. 

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED...AND ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE NIGHT.

$$

CAZ285-ORZ625-190600-
/O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-120819T0600Z/
MODOC COUNTY EXCEPT FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN
LAKE AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTIES-
751 PM PDT SAT AUG 18 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES
285 AND 625...

* AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 285 AND 625...WHICH INCLUDES 
  PORTIONS OF MODOC...LAKE AND HARNEY COUNTIES.

* THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THIS
  EVENING OVER EASTERN MODOC...EASTERN LAKE AND WESTERN HARNEY
  COUNTIES.

* OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY 
  THUNDERSTORMS.

* IMPACTS...LIGHTNING FROM THUNDERSTORMS WOULD LIKELY START 
  WILDFIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH.

&&

$$


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD

SK
120 
WWUS86 KMFR 190552
RFWMFR

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1052 PM PDT SAT AUG 18 2012


CAZ285-ORZ625-190700-
/O.EXP.KMFR.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-120819T0600Z/
MODOC COUNTY EXCEPT FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN
LAKE AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTIES-
1052 PM PDT SAT AUG 18 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES 285 AND 625...

THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING. 

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA. 

$$

SK

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this red flag warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before this red flag warning went out at Aug 16, 1:00 PM PDT, 2 hours 40 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 16, 1:00 PM PDT, 2 hours 40 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
100 PM PDT THU AUG 16 2012

.DISCUSSION...16/12Z NAM/GFS IN.

A REX BLOCK PATTERN PERSISTS OFFSHORE WITH THE CUTOFF LOW OFF THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST AT 35N 140W AND A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF ALASKA.

THIS PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN BEGINNING TODAY AS THE RIDGE
PROGRESSES WEST...AND THE CUTOFF LOW WILL INITIALLY MOVE NORTH
ALONG 140W BEFORE VEERING WEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S.

SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THIS STRETCH. THE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SURFACE
HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY OVER THE CASCADES AND THE WEST SIDE
RIDGES...BUT THE LACK OF A TRIGGER WILL NOT ALLOW ANYTHING MORE
WIDESPREAD. THE 16/12Z MEDFORD SOUNDING INDICATES PW VALUES OF
1.04 INCHES...BUT THERE IS A CAP TO OVERCOME AND THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IS A WHOPPING 107 DEGREES. THE OTHER FACTOR IS THE
WIDESPREAD WILDFIRE SMOKE OVER THE AREA...WHICH WILL CUT DOWN ON
HEATING A DEGREE OR TWO. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE IS NO
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME
SOME CUMULUS IS FORMING OVER THE RIDGES...BUT THAT'S IT.

THE MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW MOVING
UP INTO THE MEDFORD CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH
AND TIMING OF THESE WAVES...BOTH BETWEEN MODELS AND FROM RUN-TO-
RUN IN THE SAME MODEL. THIS COULD MAKE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
ISOLATED AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER MANY PORTIONS OF
THE CWA.

THE NAM BRINGS A WEAK SHORT WAVE UP THE CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY STRONGER WAVES SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THOSE WAVES CLEAR OUT TO
THE NORTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUBSEQUENT WEAK WAVES
WILL BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE.

MEANWHILE...THE GFS BRINGS A WAVE THROUGH THE WEST SIDE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND A SECOND WAVE UP THE CASCADES SATURDAY MORNING. BOTH
WAVES CLEAR TO THE NORTH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE EC PRESENTS YET ANOTHER SOLUTION...BRINGING A WEAKER WAVE
THROUGH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SATURDAY. THAT ONE LINGERS
OVER THE EAST SIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SO...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY HERE...BUT IN ANY CASE...THE WAVES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE...AND THIS PATTERN IS
USUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH A THUNDERSTORM BUST. AT THIS TIME OUR
CONSENSUS IS THAT THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY OVER THE CASCADES...BUT THE BETTER
SUPPORT ALOFT WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT.

MODEL LIFTED INDICES AND CAPES ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS
EVENT EXCEPT FOR A HOT SPOT OVER THE CASCADES AROUND CRATER LAKE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE A GOOD
BET...THE QUESTION IS WHEN AND WHERE WILL THE COVERAGE BECOME
SCATTERED. MODEL LIFTED INDICES GENERALLY SUPPORT ACTIVITY
CENTERED OVER THE SISKIYOUS AND THE CASCADES. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL LEAVE SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER THE CASCADES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE CUTOFF LOW WILL PROGRESS NORTHEAST BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AS
IT START TO INTERACT WITH AN UPSTREAM KICKER TROUGH. IT WILL STALL
ONCE AGAIN OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN STATES. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AT
THIS TIME AND THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE...AND THUS THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT...WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST. THE HOT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
SHIFT EAST AND THIS WILL END THE CURRENT HEAT WAVE OVER THE AREA.

ANOTHER KICKER TROUGH WILL PICK UP THE STALLED LOW MONDAY AND IT
WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS A TROUGH TUESDAY (GFS)
OR TUESDAY NIGHT (EC). THE GFS SOLUTION SHEARS THE TROUGH AND
DEPOSITS ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. THE
EC SOLUTION DOES NOT SHEAR. IN THE GFS SOLUTION...THE NEW CUTOFF LOW
DOESN'T STALL AND IT MOVES ONSHORE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR COOLER WEATHER...BUT
THE COOL AIR ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MORE CONVECTION.
MEANWHILE THE EC KEEPS A WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE COAST...WHICH WOULD
MAKE FOR COOLER WEATHER WITHOUT A CONVECTION THREAT. UNFORTUNATELY
THE EC ENSEMBLES ARE NOT AVAILABLE OTHER THAN THE MEANS...SO CAN'T
FULLY EMPLOY THAT AS AN EVALUATION TOOL. THE NCEP ENSEMBLES
GENERALLY SUPPORT AN OFFSHORE TROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
TRENDING TO ZONAL FLOW THURSDAY. WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE CASCADES EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...ALONG THE COAST...IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...BUT CIGS MAY LIFT A BIT THROUGH THE
NIGHT. AREAS OF IFR CIGS WILL MOVE INTO THE COQUILLE AND LOWER
UMPQUA BASIN LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING FRIDAY. OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE INLAND AREAS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL MVFR VSBYS IN SMOKE...MOSTLY
OVER SISKIYOU...MODOC...JACKSON...KLAMATH...AND LAKE COUNTIES.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
        EVENING FOR ORZ030-031.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
        EVENING FOR ORZ024-026-028-029.
     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ021-023-025-027.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
        FOR ORZ021-023-025.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
        FOR ORZ027.

CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
        FOR CAZ082>085.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
        EVENING FOR CAZ080-081.

PZ...NONE.

15/15/18

Nearby

Red Flag Warnings in Oregon, 2012Red Flag Warnings in California, 2012Every red flag warning in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.