Alert archive / Oregon / Red Flag Warnings in 2012
Red Flag Warning 11, NWS Medford, OR
NWS Medford, OR issued this red flag warning at Aug 16, 2012, 3:40 PM PDT for Modoc County, Siskiyou County, California; 9 counties in Oregon. It took effect at Aug 17, 2012, 4:00 PM PDT. It was in force for 31 hr. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 16, 2012, 3:40 PM PDT (22:40 UTC)
- In effect from
- Aug 17, 2012, 4:00 PM PDT
- Expired
- Aug 18, 2012, 11:00 PM PDT
- In force
- 31 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Medford, OR
Counties Modoc County, CA, Siskiyou County, CA, Coos County, OR, Curry County, OR, Douglas County, OR, Harney County, OR, Jackson County, OR, Josephine County, OR, Klamath County, OR, Lake County, OR, Lane County, OR
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 10:48 AM PDT | HEAVY RAIN 0.33 | 5 N Keno, OR |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
The nearest sounding before it
Medford/Jackson, OR (KMFR), launched 12:00Z, 10.7 hours before the alert went out and 55 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2319 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 9 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 5 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 1 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
591 WWUS86 KMFR 162240 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 340 PM PDT THU AUG 16 2012 ORZ621-623-624-171400- /O.UPG.KMFR.FW.A.0009.120817T2300Z-120819T0300Z/ /O.NEW.KMFR.FW.W.0011.120817T2300Z-120819T0300Z/ SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES- KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT-WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST- 340 PM PDT THU AUG 16 2012 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES 621...623 AND 624... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY. THIS UPGRADES THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. * AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 621...623 AND 624. * THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A FOCUS FROM THE SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS NORTHEASTWARD UP THE CASCADES EASTWARD TO SUMMER RIM. * OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORMS. * IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND VERY DRY FUELS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEW WILDFIRE STARTS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. && $$ CAZ282-284-171400- /O.EXT.KMFR.FW.A.0009.120817T2300Z-120819T0300Z/ SHASTA-TRINITY NATIONAL FOREST IN SISKIYOU COUNTY- SISKIYOU COUNTY FROM THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS EAST AND SOUTH TO MT SHASTA- 340 PM PDT THU AUG 16 2012 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES 282 AND 284... THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. * AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 282 AND 284. * THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY CONTINUING OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WILL PRODUCE HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS THAN THOSE ON FRIDAY EVENING. * OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORMS. * IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING MAY START NUMEROUS WILDFIRES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS. && $$ CAZ285-ORZ625-171400- /O.EXT.KMFR.FW.A.0009.120818T0600Z-120819T0600Z/ MODOC COUNTY EXCEPT FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY- SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN LAKE AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTIES- 340 PM PDT THU AUG 16 2012 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES 285 AND 625... THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. * AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 285 AND 625. * THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING WITH ACTIVITY CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WILL PRODUCE HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS THAN THOSE ON FRIDAY EVENING. * OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORMS. * IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING MAY START NUMEROUS WILDFIRES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS. && $$ CAZ280-281-ORZ616-617-620-622-171400- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.A.0009.120817T2300Z-120819T0300Z/ WESTERN KLAMATH NATIONAL FOREST- CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY INCLUDING SHASTA VALLEY-UMPQUA BASIN- UMPQUA NATIONAL FOREST- WESTERN ROGUE BASIN INCLUDING THE ILLINOIS VALLEY- EASTERN ROGUE VALLEY- 340 PM PDT THU AUG 16 2012 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES 280...281...616...617...620 AND 622... * AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 280...281...616...617...620 AND 622. * THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH A FOCUS FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTHWARD ACROSS JOSEPHINE...JACKSON...AND SOUTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES. COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SATURDAY FROM THE UMPQUA DIVIDE NORTHEASTWARD, WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF OR COME TO AN END WEST OF THIS AREA AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL PRODUCE HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS THAN THOSE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. * OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORMS. * IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING MAY START NUMEROUS WILDFIRES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS. && $$ SPILDE/BTL VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD
12 follow-up statements
302 WWUS86 KMFR 170428 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 928 PM PDT THU AUG 16 2012 CAZ285-ORZ625-171630- /O.UPG.KMFR.FW.A.0009.120818T0600Z-120819T0600Z/ /O.EXB.KMFR.FW.W.0011.120818T0600Z-120819T0600Z/ MODOC COUNTY EXCEPT FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY- SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN LAKE AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTIES- 928 PM PDT THU AUG 16 2012 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES 285 AND 625... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY. THIS WARNING REPLACES THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. * AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 285 AND 625. * THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING WITH ACTIVITY CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WILL PRODUCE HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS THAN THOSE ON FRIDAY EVENING. * OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORMS. * IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING MAY START NUMEROUS WILDFIRES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH. && $$ CAZ280>282-284-ORZ616-617-620-622-171630- /O.UPG.KMFR.FW.A.0009.120817T2300Z-120819T0300Z/ /O.EXA.KMFR.FW.W.0011.120817T2300Z-120819T0300Z/ WESTERN KLAMATH NATIONAL FOREST- CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY INCLUDING SHASTA VALLEY-SHASTA- TRINITY NATIONAL FOREST IN SISKIYOU COUNTY- SISKIYOU COUNTY FROM THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS EAST AND SOUTH TO MT SHASTA-UMPQUA BASIN-UMPQUA NATIONAL FOREST- WESTERN ROGUE BASIN INCLUDING THE ILLINOIS VALLEY- EASTERN ROGUE VALLEY- 928 PM PDT THU AUG 16 2012 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES 280...281...616...617...620 AND 622... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY. THIS WARNING REPLACES THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. * AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 280...281...616...617...620 AND 622. * THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH A FOCUS FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTHWARD ACROSS JOSEPHINE...JACKSON...AND SOUTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES. COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SATURDAY FROM THE UMPQUA DIVIDE NORTHEASTWARD... WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF OR COME TO AN END WEST OF THIS AREA AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL PRODUCE HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS THAN THOSE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. * OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORMS. * IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING MAY START NUMEROUS WILDFIRES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH. && $$ ORZ621-623-624-171630- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0011.120817T2300Z-120819T0300Z/ SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES- KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT-WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST- 928 PM PDT THU AUG 16 2012 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES 621...623 AND 624... * AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 621...623 AND 624. * THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A FOCUS FROM THE SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS NORTHEASTWARD UP THE CASCADES EASTWARD TO SUMMER RIM. * OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORMS. * IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND VERY DRY FUELS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEW WILDFIRE STARTS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. && $$ VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD
348 WWUS86 KMFR 171242 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 542 AM PDT FRI AUG 17 2012 CAZ280>282-284-ORZ616-617-620>624-180100- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0011.120817T2300Z-120819T0300Z/ WESTERN KLAMATH NATIONAL FOREST- CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY INCLUDING SHASTA VALLEY-SHASTA- TRINITY NATIONAL FOREST IN SISKIYOU COUNTY- SISKIYOU COUNTY FROM THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS EAST AND SOUTH TO MT SHASTA-UMPQUA BASIN-UMPQUA NATIONAL FOREST- WESTERN ROGUE BASIN INCLUDING THE ILLINOIS VALLEY- SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS-EASTERN ROGUE VALLEY-SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES- KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT-WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST- 542 AM PDT FRI AUG 17 2012 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES 280...281...282...284...616...617...620 AND 622... * AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 280...281...282...284...616...617...620 AND 622. * THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH A FOCUS FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTHWARD ACROSS JOSEPHINE...JACKSON...AND SOUTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES. COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SATURDAY FROM THE UMPQUA DIVIDE NORTHEASTWARD...WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF OR COME TO AN END WEST OF THIS AREA AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL PRODUCE HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS THAN THOSE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. * OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORMS. * IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING MAY START NUMEROUS WILDFIRES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH. && $$ CAZ285-ORZ625-180100- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0011.120818T0600Z-120819T0600Z/ MODOC COUNTY EXCEPT FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY- SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN LAKE AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTIES- 542 AM PDT FRI AUG 17 2012 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES 285 AND 625... * AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 285 AND 625. * THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH ACTIVITY CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WILL PRODUCE HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS THAN THOSE THIS EVENING. * OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORMS. * IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING MAY START NUMEROUS WILDFIRES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH. && $$ VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD
305 WWUS86 KMFR 171342 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 642 AM PDT FRI AUG 17 2012 CAZ280>282-284-ORZ616-617-620>624-180145- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0011.120817T2300Z-120819T0300Z/ WESTERN KLAMATH NATIONAL FOREST- CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY INCLUDING SHASTA VALLEY-SHASTA- TRINITY NATIONAL FOREST IN SISKIYOU COUNTY- SISKIYOU COUNTY FROM THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS EAST AND SOUTH TO MT SHASTA-UMPQUA BASIN-UMPQUA NATIONAL FOREST- WESTERN ROGUE BASIN INCLUDING THE ILLINOIS VALLEY- SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS-EASTERN ROGUE VALLEY-SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES- KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT-WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST- 642 AM PDT FRI AUG 17 2012 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES 280...281...282...284...616...617...620...621...622...AND 623... * AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 280...281...282...284...616...617... 620...621...622 AND 623. * THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH A FOCUS FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTHWARD ACROSS JOSEPHINE...JACKSON...AND SOUTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES. COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SATURDAY FROM THE UMPQUA DIVIDE NORTHEASTWARD...WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF OR COME TO AN END WEST OF THIS AREA AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL PRODUCE HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS THAN THOSE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. * OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORMS. * IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING MAY START NUMEROUS WILDFIRES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH. && $$ CAZ285-ORZ625-180145- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0011.120818T0600Z-120819T0600Z/ MODOC COUNTY EXCEPT FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY- SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN LAKE AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTIES- 642 AM PDT FRI AUG 17 2012 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES 285 AND 625... * AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 285 AND 625. * THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH ACTIVITY CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WILL PRODUCE HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS THAN THOSE THIS EVENING. * OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORMS. * IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING MAY START NUMEROUS WILDFIRES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH. && $$ VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD
501 WWUS86 KMFR 171425 CCA RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 719 AM PDT FRI AUG 17 2012 CORRECTED TO ADD FIRE ZONE 624 TO TEXT OF FIRST SEGMENT AND TO FINE TUNE WORDING OF IMPACTS STATEMENT CAZ280>282-284-ORZ616-617-620>624-180245- /O.COR.KMFR.FW.W.0011.120817T2300Z-120819T0300Z/ WESTERN KLAMATH NATIONAL FOREST- CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY INCLUDING SHASTA VALLEY-SHASTA- TRINITY NATIONAL FOREST IN SISKIYOU COUNTY- SISKIYOU COUNTY FROM THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS EAST AND SOUTH TO MT SHASTA-UMPQUA BASIN-UMPQUA NATIONAL FOREST- WESTERN ROGUE BASIN INCLUDING THE ILLINOIS VALLEY- SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS-EASTERN ROGUE VALLEY-SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES- KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT-WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST- 719 AM PDT FRI AUG 17 2012 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES 280...281...282...284...616...617...620...621...622...623 AND 624... * AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 280...281...282...284...616...617... 620...621...622...623...AND 624... * THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH A FOCUS FROM WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTHWARD ACROSS JOSEPHINE...JACKSON...AND SOUTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES. COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SATURDAY FROM THE UMPQUA DIVIDE NORTHEASTWARD...WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF OR COME TO AN END WEST OF THIS AREA AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL PRODUCE HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS THAN THOSE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. * OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORMS. * IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING IS LIKELY TO START NUMEROUS WILDFIRES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH. && $$ CAZ285-ORZ625-180245- /O.COR.KMFR.FW.W.0011.120818T0600Z-120819T0600Z/ MODOC COUNTY EXCEPT FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY- SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN LAKE AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTIES- 719 AM PDT FRI AUG 17 2012 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES 285 AND 625... * AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 285 AND 625. * THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING WITH ACTIVITY CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WILL PRODUCE HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS THAN THOSE THIS EVENING. * OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORMS. * IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING IS LIKELY TO START NUMEROUS WILDFIRES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH. && $$ BTL VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD
737 WWUS86 KMFR 171804 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 1104 AM PDT FRI AUG 17 2012 CAZ285-ORZ625-180430- /O.EXT.KMFR.FW.W.0011.120817T2300Z-120819T0600Z/ MODOC COUNTY EXCEPT FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY- SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN LAKE AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTIES- 1104 AM PDT FRI AUG 17 2012 ...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES 285 AND 625... THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY. * AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 285 AND 625...WHICH INCLUDES PORTIONS OF MODOC...LAKE AND HARNEY COUNTIES. * THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY CONTINUING OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WILL PRODUCE HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS THAN THOSE THIS EVENING. * OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORMS. * IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING IS LIKELY TO START NUMEROUS WILDFIRES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH. && $$ ORZ621-622-180430- /O.EXT.KMFR.FW.W.0011.120817T2300Z-120818T1900Z/ SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS-EASTERN ROGUE VALLEY- 1104 AM PDT FRI AUG 17 2012 ...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON PDT SATURDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES 621 AND 622... THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON PDT SATURDAY. * AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 621 AND 622...WHICH INCLUDES PORTIONS OF JOSEPHINE...JACKSON AND SISKIYOU COUNTIES. * THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN SISKIYOU...JOSEPHINE...JACKSON...AND SOUTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF OR COME TO AN END WEST OF THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL PRODUCE HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS THAN THOSE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORMS. * IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING IS LIKELY TO START NUMEROUS WILDFIRES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH. && $$ CAZ280>282-ORZ616-620-180430- /O.EXT.KMFR.FW.W.0011.120818T0600Z-120818T1900Z/ WESTERN KLAMATH NATIONAL FOREST- CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY INCLUDING SHASTA VALLEY-SHASTA- TRINITY NATIONAL FOREST IN SISKIYOU COUNTY-UMPQUA BASIN- WESTERN ROGUE BASIN INCLUDING THE ILLINOIS VALLEY- 1104 AM PDT FRI AUG 17 2012 ...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON PDT SATURDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES 280...281...282...616 AND 620... THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON PDT SATURDAY. * AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 280...281...282...616 AND 620. * THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL SISKIYOU...JOSEPHINE... JACKSON...AND SOUTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF OR COME TO AN END WEST OF THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL PRODUCE HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS THAN THOSE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORMS. * IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING IS LIKELY TO START NUMEROUS WILDFIRES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH. && $$ CAZ284-ORZ617-623-624-180430- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0011.120817T2300Z-120819T0300Z/ SISKIYOU COUNTY FROM THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS EAST AND SOUTH TO MT SHASTA-UMPQUA NATIONAL FOREST-SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES- KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT-WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST- 1104 AM PDT FRI AUG 17 2012 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES 284...617...623 AND 624... * AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 623...624...284...AND 617. * THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS SISKIYOU...JACKSON...DOUGLAS AND KLAMATH COUNTIES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL PRODUCE HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS THAN THOSE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORMS. * IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING IS LIKELY TO START NUMEROUS WILDFIRES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH. && $$ DW VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD
144 WWUS86 KMFR 172310 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 410 PM PDT FRI AUG 17 2012 CAZ285-ORZ625-181300- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-120819T0600Z/ MODOC COUNTY EXCEPT FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY- SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN LAKE AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTIES- 410 PM PDT FRI AUG 17 2012 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES 285 AND 625... * AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 285 AND 625...WHICH INCLUDES PORTIONS OF MODOC...LAKE AND HARNEY COUNTIES. * THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WILL PRODUCE HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS THAN THOSE THIS EVENING. * OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORMS. * IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING IS LIKELY TO START NUMEROUS WILDFIRES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH. && $$ CAZ284-ORZ617-623-624-181300- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-120819T0300Z/ SISKIYOU COUNTY FROM THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS EAST AND SOUTH TO MT SHASTA-UMPQUA NATIONAL FOREST-SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES- KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT-WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST- 410 PM PDT FRI AUG 17 2012 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES 284...617... 623 AND 624... * AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 284...617...623...AND 624. * THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS SISKIYOU...JACKSON...EASTERN DOUGLAS...KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WILL PRODUCE HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS THAN THOSE THIS EVENING. * OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORMS. * IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING IS LIKELY TO START NUMEROUS WILDFIRES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH. && $$ ORZ621-622-181300- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-120818T1900Z/ SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS-EASTERN ROGUE VALLEY- 410 PM PDT FRI AUG 17 2012 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PDT SATURDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES 621 AND 622... * AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 621 AND 622...WHICH INCLUDES PORTIONSOF JOSEPHINE...JACKSON AND SISKIYOU COUNTIES. * THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN SISKIYOU...JOSEPHINE... JACKSON...AND SOUTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END WEST OF THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE PRODUCE HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS THAN THOSE THIS EVENING. * OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORMS. * IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING IS LIKELY TO START NUMEROUS WILDFIRES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH. && $$ CAZ280>282-ORZ616-620-181300- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0011.120818T0600Z-120818T1900Z/ WESTERN KLAMATH NATIONAL FOREST- CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY INCLUDING SHASTA VALLEY-SHASTA- TRINITY NATIONAL FOREST IN SISKIYOU COUNTY-UMPQUA BASIN- WESTERN ROGUE BASIN INCLUDING THE ILLINOIS VALLEY- 410 PM PDT FRI AUG 17 2012 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON PDT SATURDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES 280...281...282...616 AND 620... * AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 280...281...282...616 AND 620. * THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING THEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL SISKIYOU... JOSEPHINE... JACKSON...AND SOUTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF OR COME TO AN END WEST OF THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL PRODUCE HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS THAN ANY THAT FORM THIS EVENING. * OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORMS. * IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING IS LIKELY TO START NUMEROUS WILDFIRES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH. && $$ DW VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD
028 WWUS86 KMFR 181254 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 554 AM PDT SAT AUG 18 2012 CAZ285-ORZ625-190100- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-120819T0600Z/ MODOC COUNTY EXCEPT FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY- SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN LAKE AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTIES- 554 AM PDT SAT AUG 18 2012 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES 285 AND 625... * AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 285 AND 625...WHICH INCLUDES PORTIONS OF MODOC...LAKE AND HARNEY COUNTIES. * THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL PRODUCE HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS THAN THOSE FROM LAST NIGHT. * OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORMS. * IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING IS LIKELY TO START NUMEROUS WILDFIRES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH. && $$ CAZ284-ORZ617-623-624-190100- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-120819T0300Z/ SISKIYOU COUNTY FROM THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS EAST AND SOUTH TO MT SHASTA-UMPQUA NATIONAL FOREST-SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES- KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT-WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST- 554 AM PDT SAT AUG 18 2012 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES 284...617... 623 AND 624... * AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 284...617...623...AND 624. * THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS SISKIYOU...JACKSON...EASTERN DOUGLAS...KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. * OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORMS. * IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING IS LIKELY TO START NUMEROUS WILDFIRES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH. && $$ CAZ280>282-ORZ616-620>622-181900- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-120818T1900Z/ WESTERN KLAMATH NATIONAL FOREST- CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY INCLUDING SHASTA VALLEY-SHASTA- TRINITY NATIONAL FOREST IN SISKIYOU COUNTY-UMPQUA BASIN- WESTERN ROGUE BASIN INCLUDING THE ILLINOIS VALLEY- SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS-EASTERN ROGUE VALLEY- 554 AM PDT SAT AUG 18 2012 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES 616...620...621... 622...280...281 AND 282... * AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 616...620...621...622...280...281 AND 282. * THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND MOST SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS AND IN EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. * OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORMS. * IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING IS LIKELY TO START NUMEROUS WILDFIRES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH. && $$ VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD
714 WWUS86 KMFR 181600 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 900 AM PDT SAT AUG 18 2012 CAZ280>282-ORZ616-620>622-181700- /O.CAN.KMFR.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-120818T1900Z/ WESTERN KLAMATH NATIONAL FOREST- CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY INCLUDING SHASTA VALLEY-SHASTA- TRINITY NATIONAL FOREST IN SISKIYOU COUNTY-UMPQUA BASIN- WESTERN ROGUE BASIN INCLUDING THE ILLINOIS VALLEY- SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS-EASTERN ROGUE VALLEY- 900 AM PDT SAT AUG 18 2012 ...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES 616...620...621... 622...280...281 AND 282... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNING. * AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 281...622...282...621...616...280 AND 620 * THUNDERSTORMS...THE LAST OF A SERIES OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES HAS MOVED NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT FORECAST FOR AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES TODAY. $$ CAZ284-181700- /O.CAN.KMFR.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-120819T0300Z/ SISKIYOU COUNTY FROM THE CASCADE MOUNTAINS EAST AND SOUTH TO MT SHASTA- 900 AM PDT SAT AUG 18 2012 ...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES 284...617... 623 AND 624... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNING. * AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONE 284 * THUNDERSTORMS...THE LAST OF A SERIES OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES HAS MOVED NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT FORECAST FOR TODAY. $$ CAZ285-ORZ625-190400- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-120819T0600Z/ MODOC COUNTY EXCEPT FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY- SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN LAKE AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTIES- 900 AM PDT SAT AUG 18 2012 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES 285 AND 625... * AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 285 AND 625...WHICH INCLUDES PORTIONS OF MODOC...LAKE AND HARNEY COUNTIES. * THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL PRODUCE HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS THAN THOSE FROM FRIDAY EVENING. * OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORMS. * IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING IS LIKELY TO START NUMEROUS WILDFIRES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH. && $$ ORZ617-623-624-190300- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-120819T0300Z/ UMPQUA NATIONAL FOREST-SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES- KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT-WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST- 900 AM PDT SAT AUG 18 2012 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES 284...617... 623 AND 624... * AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 284...617...623...AND 624. * THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS SISKIYOU...JACKSON... EASTERN DOUGLAS...KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONLY BE ISOLATED IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF ZONE 623 AND SOUTHWEST PORTION OF ZONE 624. * OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORMS. * IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING IS LIKELY TO START NUMEROUS WILDFIRES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH. && $$ DW VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD
628 WWUS86 KMFR 181731 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 1031 AM PDT SAT AUG 18 2012 ORZ617-623-624-190300- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-120819T0300Z/ UMPQUA NATIONAL FOREST-SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES- KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT-WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST- 1031 AM PDT SAT AUG 18 2012 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES 617...623 AND 624... * AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 617...623...AND 624. * THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS SISKIYOU...JACKSON... EASTERN DOUGLAS...KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONLY BE ISOLATED IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF ZONE 623 AND SOUTHWEST PORTION OF ZONE 624. * OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORMS. * IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING IS LIKELY TO START NUMEROUS WILDFIRES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH. && $$ CAZ285-ORZ625-190545- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-120819T0600Z/ MODOC COUNTY EXCEPT FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY- SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN LAKE AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTIES- 1031 AM PDT SAT AUG 18 2012 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES 285 AND 625... * AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 285 AND 625...WHICH INCLUDES PORTIONS OF MODOC...LAKE AND HARNEY COUNTIES. * THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL PRODUCE HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS THAN THOSE FROM FRIDAY EVENING. * OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORMS. * IMPACTS...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING IS LIKELY TO START NUMEROUS WILDFIRES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH. && $$ DW VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD
910 WWUS86 KMFR 182223 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 323 PM PDT SAT AUG 18 2012 ORZ617-623-624-190300- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-120819T0300Z/ UMPQUA NATIONAL FOREST-SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES- KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT-WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST- 323 PM PDT SAT AUG 18 2012 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES 617...623 AND 624... * AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 617...623...AND 624. * THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND ACROSS KLAMATH AND WESTERN LAKE COUNTIES. * OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORMS. * IMPACTS...LIGHTNING FROM THUNDERSTORMS WOULD LIKELY START WILDFIRES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH. && $$ CAZ285-ORZ625-190600- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-120819T0600Z/ MODOC COUNTY EXCEPT FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY- SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN LAKE AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTIES- 323 PM PDT SAT AUG 18 2012 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES 285 AND 625... * AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 285 AND 625...WHICH INCLUDES PORTIONS OF MODOC...LAKE AND HARNEY COUNTIES. * THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING OVER MODOC...LAKE AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTIES. * OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORMS. * IMPACTS...LIGHTNING FROM THUNDERSTORMS WOULD LIKELY START WILDFIRES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH. && $$ DW VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD
977 WWUS86 KMFR 190251 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 751 PM PDT SAT AUG 18 2012 ORZ617-623-624-190400- /O.EXP.KMFR.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-120819T0300Z/ UMPQUA NATIONAL FOREST-SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES- KLAMATH BASIN AND THE FREMONT-WINEMA NATIONAL FOREST- 751 PM PDT SAT AUG 18 2012 ...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES 617...623 AND 624... THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED...AND ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. $$ CAZ285-ORZ625-190600- /O.CON.KMFR.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-120819T0600Z/ MODOC COUNTY EXCEPT FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY- SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN LAKE AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTIES- 751 PM PDT SAT AUG 18 2012 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES 285 AND 625... * AFFECTED AREA: FIRE ZONES 285 AND 625...WHICH INCLUDES PORTIONS OF MODOC...LAKE AND HARNEY COUNTIES. * THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN MODOC...EASTERN LAKE AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTIES. * OUTFLOW WINDS...GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORMS. * IMPACTS...LIGHTNING FROM THUNDERSTORMS WOULD LIKELY START WILDFIRES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH. && $$ VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD SK
120 WWUS86 KMFR 190552 RFWMFR URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 1052 PM PDT SAT AUG 18 2012 CAZ285-ORZ625-190700- /O.EXP.KMFR.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-120819T0600Z/ MODOC COUNTY EXCEPT FOR THE SURPRISE VALLEY- SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON DESERT INCLUDING THE BLM LAND IN EASTERN LAKE AND WESTERN HARNEY COUNTIES- 1052 PM PDT SAT AUG 18 2012 ...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING WITH DRY FUELS FOR FIRE ZONES 285 AND 625... THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA. $$ SK VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this red flag warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before this red flag warning went out at Aug 16, 1:00 PM PDT, 2 hours 40 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 16, 1:00 PM PDT, 2 hours 40 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
100 PM PDT THU AUG 16 2012
.DISCUSSION...16/12Z NAM/GFS IN.
A REX BLOCK PATTERN PERSISTS OFFSHORE WITH THE CUTOFF LOW OFF THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST AT 35N 140W AND A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF ALASKA.
THIS PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN BEGINNING TODAY AS THE RIDGE
PROGRESSES WEST...AND THE CUTOFF LOW WILL INITIALLY MOVE NORTH
ALONG 140W BEFORE VEERING WEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THIS STRETCH. THE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SURFACE
HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY OVER THE CASCADES AND THE WEST SIDE
RIDGES...BUT THE LACK OF A TRIGGER WILL NOT ALLOW ANYTHING MORE
WIDESPREAD. THE 16/12Z MEDFORD SOUNDING INDICATES PW VALUES OF
1.04 INCHES...BUT THERE IS A CAP TO OVERCOME AND THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IS A WHOPPING 107 DEGREES. THE OTHER FACTOR IS THE
WIDESPREAD WILDFIRE SMOKE OVER THE AREA...WHICH WILL CUT DOWN ON
HEATING A DEGREE OR TWO. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE IS NO
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME
SOME CUMULUS IS FORMING OVER THE RIDGES...BUT THAT'S IT.
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW MOVING
UP INTO THE MEDFORD CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH
AND TIMING OF THESE WAVES...BOTH BETWEEN MODELS AND FROM RUN-TO-
RUN IN THE SAME MODEL. THIS COULD MAKE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
ISOLATED AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER MANY PORTIONS OF
THE CWA.
THE NAM BRINGS A WEAK SHORT WAVE UP THE CASCADES FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY STRONGER WAVES SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THOSE WAVES CLEAR OUT TO
THE NORTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUBSEQUENT WEAK WAVES
WILL BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE.
MEANWHILE...THE GFS BRINGS A WAVE THROUGH THE WEST SIDE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND A SECOND WAVE UP THE CASCADES SATURDAY MORNING. BOTH
WAVES CLEAR TO THE NORTH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE EC PRESENTS YET ANOTHER SOLUTION...BRINGING A WEAKER WAVE
THROUGH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SATURDAY. THAT ONE LINGERS
OVER THE EAST SIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SO...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY HERE...BUT IN ANY CASE...THE WAVES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE...AND THIS PATTERN IS
USUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH A THUNDERSTORM BUST. AT THIS TIME OUR
CONSENSUS IS THAT THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY OVER THE CASCADES...BUT THE BETTER
SUPPORT ALOFT WILL COME FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODEL LIFTED INDICES AND CAPES ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS
EVENT EXCEPT FOR A HOT SPOT OVER THE CASCADES AROUND CRATER LAKE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE A GOOD
BET...THE QUESTION IS WHEN AND WHERE WILL THE COVERAGE BECOME
SCATTERED. MODEL LIFTED INDICES GENERALLY SUPPORT ACTIVITY
CENTERED OVER THE SISKIYOUS AND THE CASCADES. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL LEAVE SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER THE CASCADES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE CUTOFF LOW WILL PROGRESS NORTHEAST BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AS
IT START TO INTERACT WITH AN UPSTREAM KICKER TROUGH. IT WILL STALL
ONCE AGAIN OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN STATES. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AT
THIS TIME AND THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE...AND THUS THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT...WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST. THE HOT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
SHIFT EAST AND THIS WILL END THE CURRENT HEAT WAVE OVER THE AREA.
ANOTHER KICKER TROUGH WILL PICK UP THE STALLED LOW MONDAY AND IT
WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS A TROUGH TUESDAY (GFS)
OR TUESDAY NIGHT (EC). THE GFS SOLUTION SHEARS THE TROUGH AND
DEPOSITS ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. THE
EC SOLUTION DOES NOT SHEAR. IN THE GFS SOLUTION...THE NEW CUTOFF LOW
DOESN'T STALL AND IT MOVES ONSHORE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR COOLER WEATHER...BUT
THE COOL AIR ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MORE CONVECTION.
MEANWHILE THE EC KEEPS A WEAK TROUGH ALONG THE COAST...WHICH WOULD
MAKE FOR COOLER WEATHER WITHOUT A CONVECTION THREAT. UNFORTUNATELY
THE EC ENSEMBLES ARE NOT AVAILABLE OTHER THAN THE MEANS...SO CAN'T
FULLY EMPLOY THAT AS AN EVALUATION TOOL. THE NCEP ENSEMBLES
GENERALLY SUPPORT AN OFFSHORE TROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
TRENDING TO ZONAL FLOW THURSDAY. WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE CASCADES EAST.
&&
.AVIATION...ALONG THE COAST...IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...BUT CIGS MAY LIFT A BIT THROUGH THE
NIGHT. AREAS OF IFR CIGS WILL MOVE INTO THE COQUILLE AND LOWER
UMPQUA BASIN LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING FRIDAY. OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE INLAND AREAS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL MVFR VSBYS IN SMOKE...MOSTLY
OVER SISKIYOU...MODOC...JACKSON...KLAMATH...AND LAKE COUNTIES.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR ORZ030-031.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR ORZ024-026-028-029.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ021-023-025-027.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR ORZ021-023-025.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR ORZ027.
CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR CAZ082>085.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR CAZ080-081.
PZ...NONE.
15/15/18Nearby
Red Flag Warnings in Oregon, 2012Red Flag Warnings in California, 2012Every red flag warning in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.