Hazardous Seas Warning 37, NWS Medford, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
850 AM PDT MON JUL 2 2012

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS THE MARINE STRATUS ALONG
THE COAST...UMPQUA BASIN...ILLINOIS AND APPLEGATE VALLEYS. THE
MARINE STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING IN THE APPLEGATE
AND ILLINOIS VALLEY...BUT WILL HANG ON LONGER IN THE UMPQUA BASIN
AND COAST. ELSEWHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR...BUT WE'LL SEE SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH DURING THE DAY.

WE'LL TAKE A LOOK AT POPS FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO
A SHORTWAVE THAT IS PROJECTED TO SWING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE CWA. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE AREAS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND
NORTHWEST DOUGLAS COUNTY STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING PATCHY
DRIZZLE OT LIGHT RAIN. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.AVIATION...MARINE STRATUS HAS RESULTED IN IFR CONDITIONS AT THE
COAST AND MVFR CONDITIONS UN THE UMPQUA BASIN. CURRENT GUIDANCE
SUGGEST CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BETWEEN 20-22Z AT THE COAST
AND VFR IN THE UMPQUA BASIN. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CLOUD
COVER TO DEVELOP WITH VFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AROUND 23Z.
EVEN THEN IT WOULD BE TEMPORARY WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO
RETURN BETWEEN 2-4Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 AM PDT MON JUL 2 2012/

DISCUSSION...ONSHORE FLOW IS SENDING WIDESPREAD STRATUS INTO THE
COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN EARLY THIS MORNING. CEILINGS ARE RUNNING
2200-2600 FEET AND THIS SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE STRATUS BANKED UP
NORTH OF THE UMPQUA DIVIDE. SOME SPILLOVER MAY OCCUR JUST WEST
OF THE ROGUE VALLEY INTO JOSEPHINE COUNTY FOR A TIME, BUT ANY
CLOUDS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY ERODE LATER THIS MORNING.
WHERE THICKER CLOUDS EXIST THIS MORNING, THEY'LL TAKE A LITTLE
WHILE LONGER TO ERODE, BUT SOME SUNNY BREAKS SHOULD OCCUR JUST
ABOUT EVERYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST BREEZES
WILL ALSO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, THEN SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S IN MEDFORD.

TONIGHT, A FAST-MOVING AND VIGOROUS UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE PACNW DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA.
THIS LOOKS LIKE A HIGHER POP/LOW QPF SITUATION ALONG THE
COOS/DOUGLAS COAST WHERE MOST LOCATIONS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO WILL
HAVE A LITTLE RAIN/DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT INTO VERY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. THEREFORE, HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE CHANCE-LIKELY
CATEGORY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS NEAR REEDSPORT. DON'T THINK THERE
WILL BE MUCH MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS...BUT THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED THE FARTHER NORTH YOU GO ALONG THE COAST. SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED EASTWARD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN VERY
EARLY TUESDAY, BUT ELSEWHERE INLAND, IT WILL STAY DRY.

THE AIR MASS WILL DRY OUT FAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND A THERMAL
TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OFFSHORE...STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AGAIN...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES. WHILE
MOST AREAS INLAND WILL EXPERIENCE A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING
TUESDAY DUE TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, IT MAY BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER IN BROOKINGS DUE TO OFFSHORE FLOW WITH HIGHS LIKELY IN THE
70S.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED FOR THE 4TH OF JULY WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THIS WILL PRODUCE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
DAYTIME OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND ALSO FIREWORKS DISPLAYS IN THE
EVENING. ANOTHER SUNNY, DRY DAY IS EXPECTED THURSDAY.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND FORECAST.
MODEL ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES GRADUALLY BUILDING WESTWARD WITH TIME. RISING
HEIGHTS WILL BRING IN WARM AIR ALOFT WITH 850 TEMPS PEAKING AROUND
20-22C SATURDAY/SUNDAY/MONDAY. THIS WOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S HERE IN MEDFORD. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
WEAK MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A WEAK TROUGH TAKES UP RESIDENCE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
WE'LL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW, BUT WE MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE
A THUNDER THREAT AT SOME POINT. -SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PZ...GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS
     MORNING FOR PZZ376.