Hazardous Seas Warning 12, NWS Medford, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
215 PM PST SUN FEB 26 2012

.DISCUSSION...26/12Z NAM/GFS IN.

A WEAK RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS RAPIDLY
WEAKENING AND WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST LATER TODAY.

TWO INCOMING STRONG SHORT WAVES WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYERS IN THE WEST
COAST WEATHER PICTURE THROUGH MONDAY. THESE WAVES STARTED OFF AS
WEAK WAVES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT THEY ARE AMPLIFYING AS
THEY APPROACH THE COAST. THE SOUTHERNMOST WAVE WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE SECOND WAVE WILL
SWING DOWN FROM THE NORTH...MOVING INTO WASHINGTON STATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN INTO OREGON SUNDAY NIGHT. AS IT DOES SO...IT WILL
MOVE INTO PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN WAVE TO EFFECTIVELY DIG A LONG
WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. OVERALL THIS WILL BE A COLD AND
SHOWERY PATTERN...BUT SOUTHWEST OREGON WILL BE BETWEEN THE WAVES
FOR MOST OF THIS INTERVAL...SO EXPECT LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 2000 FEET TODAY...BUT WILL DROP BELOW
1000 FEET TONIGHT...SO SOME OF THE WEST SIDE VALLEY FLOORS MAY SEE
SOME SNOW...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS.

THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT MONDAY EVENING AND RIDGING WILL BRING IN
A BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS AT THAT TIME. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK
TO THE EAST TUESDAY MORNING AND THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE TO
THE COAST TUESDAY EVENING. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A
SLOWER AND STRONGER SYSTEM AND THIS NOW LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY STRONG
STORM THAT WILL REQUIRE WIND AND SNOW RELATED WATCHES/WARNINGS/
ADVISORIES. IT IS TOO EARLY TO ISSUE A WATCH AT THIS TIME...BUT IF
THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LOOK THIS STRONG WATCHES WILL GO OUT IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE
TUESDAY EVENING. INITIALLY SNOW LEVELS WILL START OFF IN THE
3000-4000 FOOT RANGE...BUT WILL LOWER TO 1500-2000 FEET BEHIND THE
FRONT.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY EVENING AND STRONG
RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE EC AND GFS ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A COOL...
MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
RISING IN THE AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK SHIFTING NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HAVE LEFT IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER GIVEN THAT WE'LL HAVE 500MB HEIGHTS NEAR 573DM
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE REMAIN FLAT OUT DRY. THE MODELS BEGIN
TO SHOW DIFFERENCES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE GFS SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE MOVING TROF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY WHILE THE EC IS
SHOWS THE TROF SPLITTING OUT NEAR 145W AND MOVING INTO THE AREA
ABOUT 18 HOURS LATER. WE'LL BE LEANING TOWARDS THE SLOWER EC
SOLUTION WHICH IS IN LINE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL KEEP HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT
WHICH MAY RESULT IN TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS WEST OF THE
CASCADES BETWEEN 06 AND 15Z. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THIS WILL
HAPPEN AND THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 AM PST MONDAY FOR
        PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST MONDAY
        FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM
        PST MONDAY FOR PZZ370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM
        PST MONDAY FOR PZZ350.

15/10/17

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
225 PM PST SUN FEB 26 2012

CAZ080>085-ORZ021>031-271200-
WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY-CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY-
SOUTH CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY-
NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST SISKIYOU COUNTY-
NORTHEAST SISKIYOU AND NORTHWEST MODOC COUNTIES-MODOC COUNTY-
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON COAST-CURRY COUNTY COAST-
CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY-EASTERN CURRY COUNTY AND JOSEPHINE COUNTY-
EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY FOOTHILLS-JACKSON COUNTY-
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES-
SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES-KLAMATH BASIN-
NORTHERN AND EASTERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND WESTERN LAKE COUNTY-
CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ETNA...FORT JONES...GREENVIEW...YREKA...
WEED...MOUNT SHASTA...DUNSMUIR...MCCLOUD...TENNANT...TULELAKE...
DORRIS...ALTURAS...COOS BAY...NORTH BEND...REEDSPORT...COQUILLE...
BROOKINGS...HARBOR...GOLD BEACH...ROSEBURG...SUTHERLIN...GREEN...
GRANTS PASS...STEAMBOAT...TOKETEE FALLS...MEDFORD...ASHLAND...
CRATER LAKE...CRESCENT LAKE...DIAMOND LAKE...UNION CREEK...
HOWARD PRAIRIE...SISKIYOU SUMMIT...ALTAMONT...KLAMATH FALLS...
BEATTY...BLY...CHEMULT...CRESCENT...GILCHRIST...SPRAGUE RIVER...
LAKEVIEW
225 PM PST SUN FEB 26 2012

...STRONG WINTER STORM EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
   WEDNESDAY...

A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL INITIALLY BRING VERY STRONG
WINDS TO THE COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH WINDS OF
40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS GREATER THAN 60 MPH POSSIBLE. AS THE FRONT
MOVES ONSHORE...STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN THE SHASTA
VALLEY AND EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE SHASTA VALLEY WILL SEE SOUTH
WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE EAST
SIDE WILL EXPERIENCE SOUTHWEST WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60
MPH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

AS THE STORM MOVES ONSHORE IT WILL BRING VERY HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION. RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE COAST RANGE OF EXTREME SOUTHWEST OREGON TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE 2500 TO 3000 FEET...DROPPING TO
AROUND 1500 FEET WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF A
FOOT ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA AS WELL AS THE SISKIYOUS
AND THE CASCADES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MAY EXCEED 2 FEET ABOVE 4500 FEET AROUND MOUNT
SHASTA AND IN THE SISKIYOUS.

STOCKTON