Gale Watch 44, NWS Medford, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
223 PM PST FRI NOV 30 2012

DISCUSSION...THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES OFF
SHORE AND ROTATING SEVERAL SYSTEMS INTO THE AREA. THE NEXT ONE IS
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE FOCUS IS AGAIN IN THE
CURRY/JOSEPHINE/SISKIYOU COUNTY AREA. THE MOISTURE SUPPLY FOR THIS
NEXT SYSTEM IS A BIT MORE LIMITED THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY.
IT IS ALSO MOVING ALONG SO TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNT WILL BE LIMITED.
GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR CURRY/JOSEPHINE/SISKIYOU COUNTIES...1
TO 2 INCHES FOR OTHER WESTSIDE LOCATIONS AND LESS THAN AN INCH
EAST OF THE CASCADES.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL SEE A BIT OF BREAK...NOT COMPLETELY DRY
BUT AT LEAST NOT STEADY HARD RAIN. THIS RESPITE IS SHORT LIVED
WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM COMING IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE
MOISTURE SUPPLY AND JET STREAM SUPPORT ARE GREATER FOR THIS FRONT
SO RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATER. A 144 KNOT JET PASSES
OVERHEAD HELPING WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WHICH CREATES
VERTICAL MOTION. FLOOD WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED FOR POINTS ON THE
COQUILLE RIVER AS WELL AS THE ROGUE RIVER AT AGNESS. AREAL FLOOD
WATCHES ARE ALSO OUT.

THE NEXT SYSTEM ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY HAS POTENTIAL TO BE
VERY WET OVER A WIDE AREA. IT HAS VERY DEEP MOISTURE ORIGINATING
FROM NEAR HAWAII. IT WON/T HAVE THE JET SUPPORT OF THE SUNDAY
SYSTEM. THE FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE SLOWER SO RAINFALL DURATIONS WILL
INCREASE. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MODERATE
LIFT FOCUSED ON THE SOUTH COAST AND NW CALIFORNIA. POTENTIAL
RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM IS 5 TO 7 INCHES IN THE FAVORED
CURRY/JOSEPHINE/SISKIYOU COUNTY AREA.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM CLEARS THE AREA WE APPEAR TO HAVE A DRY PERIOD
WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE. JBL

&&

AVIATION...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN IMPROVING CIGS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HOWEVER MTNS REMAIN PARTLY
OBSCURED UNTIL AT LEAST 22Z MAYBE LATER. ANOTHER FRONT ARRIVES AT
THE COAST THIS EVENING WITH CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL
IFR. WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE WITH WIND SPEED SHEAR CONCERNS THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT FOR THE COAST AND UMPQUA BASIN. WIND SPEED
SHEAR IS A CLOSE CALL FOR KMFR. IF IT WERE TO DEVELOP IT WOULD
ONLY BE FOR A FEW HOURS. MP

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ORZ021-022.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ORZ029>031.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR CAZ085.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     CAZ084-085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR CAZ081.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     CAZ081.

PZ...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1026 AM PST FRI NOV 30 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1023 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 WNW ASHLAND           42.20N 122.73W
11/30/2012  M2.25 INCH       JACKSON            OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            7AM TO 7AM.

1023 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 WNW KLAMATH FALLS     42.23N 121.83W
11/30/2012  E0.84 INCH       KLAMATH            OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            9PM TO 1030AM.

1023 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SSW OBRIEN            42.05N 123.71W
11/30/2012  M1.02 INCH       JOSEPHINE          OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MID TO 10AM. 11/30 CALENDAR DAY PRECIP 5.31

&&

GLASER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1031 AM PST FRI NOV 30 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     HEAVY RAIN       RIDDLE                  42.95N 123.37W
11/30/2012  M3.30 INCH       DOUGLAS            OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            30 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 1030AM.

&&

GLASER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1133 AM PST FRI NOV 30 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     HEAVY RAIN       11 NE GRANTS PASS       42.56N 123.17W
11/30/2012  M3.27 INCH       JACKSON            OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            6AM TO 6AM.

&&

GLASER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
238 PM PST FRI NOV 30 2012

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     HEAVY RAIN       7 WNW KLAMATH FALLS     42.28N 121.89W
11/30/2012  M0.97 INCH       KLAMATH            OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAIN DURATION 12 HOURS

&&

IRIS SYSTEM