Gale Watch 10, NWS Medford, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
315 AM PDT SUN MAR 18 2012

.DISCUSSION...TWO MAIN FEATURES WILL AFFECT OUR WEATHER THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FIRST...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
SWING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...FURTHER COOLING THE AIR
MASS AND PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN OREGON AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. NEXT...A POTENT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF WET WEATHER TO THE AREA FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

TODAY...AN ILL-DEFINED TROUGH FEATURE THAT IS FOLLOWING THE DEEP LOW
OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS REACHING THE OREGON COASTLINE. SOME
DEFORMATION BEHIND THE DOWNSTREAM LOW SEEMS TO BE EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THIS COULD ENHANCE PRECIPITATION TODAY.
RADAR RETURNS ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE RIGHT NOW BUT SNOW DOES SEEM
TO BE EXPANDING SOME...SO HAVE KEPT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE CASCADES...GENERALLY ABOVE 1500-2000 FEET.
NAM...GFS...AND THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR HAVE CONSISTENTLY
INDICATED SHOWERS INCREASING IN COVERAGE TODAY...SO EXPECT 1 TO 3
INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TODAY. SEE THE WINTER WEATHER
PRODUCTS AT PDXWSWMFR FOR MORE DETAILS. SNOW IMPACTS WILL BE MUTED
IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS AS TEMPERATURES WARM SOME...MAKING IT
MORE DIFFICULT FOR ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS TO STICK TO ROADS.
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOSTLY OVER BY TONIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY...THE COQUILLE RIVER AT COQUILLE CONTINUES TO
FLOOD...AND SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH TODAY.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND MONDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST MORNING FOR THE NEXT WEEK
OR SO. GIVEN THE EXPECTED MEDIUM TO HIGH AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY IN THE UPPER 20S FOR WEST
SIDE VALLEYS. HOWEVER..THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW
MUCH BREAK IN CLOUDS THERE COULD BE AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM ARRIVING MONDAY. ALSO...DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 20S
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THEREFORE...A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR PARTS OF JOSEPHINE...DOUGLAS...AND JACKSON COUNTIES.
ADDITIONALLY...A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED AGAIN FOR THE
COASTAL AREAS. SEE PDXNPWMFR FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZE CONDITIONS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL BE ATTACHED TO A PARENT LOW
THAT DEEPENS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL SET UP A
FETCH OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THAT WILL OVERRUN A WARM
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...AND GENERATE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COAST RANGE. FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY ABOUT 5 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE
CURRY COUNTY COAST WITH 3 INCHES NEAR THE COOS COUNTY COAST...AND 2
TO 3 INCHES OVER THE CASCADES. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE 5000
FEET...ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL CAUSE
RIVERS...CREEKS...AND STREAMS TO RISE AGAIN.

LATE NEXT WEEK MODELS SUGGEST SEVERAL POSSIBILITIES...ONE OF WHICH
INCLUDES A CUTOFF LOW MEANDERING SOUTH ALONG THE COAST. IN ANY
CASE...CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED IS LOW AND MINIMAL CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...AND CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR WEST OF THE CASCADES
WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EAST OF THE CASCADES. OCCASIONAL RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DROP VISIBILITY LATER THIS MORNING FROM THE
CASCADES WESTWARD...AND THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD LAST THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ021-022.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM PDT MONDAY FOR ORZ021-022.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING ABOVE 1500
     FEET FOR ORZ021-022.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ORZ023.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING ABOVE 1500
     FEET FOR ORZ023-025.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ORZ024.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING ABOVE 1500
     FEET FOR ORZ024.
     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ORZ026.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING ABOVE 2000
     FEET FOR ORZ026.

CA...NONE.

PZ...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
     PZZ376.

SK/DW/BN

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