Frost Advisory 15, NWS Medford, OR

052 
WWUS76 KMFR 110530
NPWMFR

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1030 PM PDT THU MAY 10 2012

CAZ081-111500-
/O.CON.KMFR.FR.Y.0015.120511T1000Z-120511T1500Z/
CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY-
1030 PM PDT THU MAY 10 2012

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM PDT
   FRIDAY...

A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM PDT FRIDAY. 

* LOW TEMPERATURES...33 TO 36 DEGREES. ISOLATED AREAS MAY
  EXPERIENCE FREEZING TEMPERATURES OF 31 OR 32 DEGREES.

* TEMPERATURE INVERSION...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 35 TO 39 DEGREES
  ABOVE THE SURFACE.

* LOCATIONS INCLUDE: MONTAGUE...YREKA.

* IMPACTS...SENSITIVE VEGETATION MAY BE DAMAGED BY FROST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$

ORZ024-026-111500-
/O.CON.KMFR.FR.Y.0015.120511T1000Z-120511T1500Z/
EASTERN CURRY COUNTY AND JOSEPHINE COUNTY-JACKSON COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GRANTS PASS...CAVE JUNCTION...MEDFORD
1030 PM PDT THU MAY 10 2012

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM PDT
   FRIDAY...

A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM PDT FRIDAY. 

* TEMPERATURE...34 TO 38 DEGREES.

* TEMPERATURE INVERSION...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 36 TO 40 DEGREES
  ABOVE THE SURFACE.

* LOCATIONS INCLUDE: GRANTS PASS...MEDFORD...JACKSONVILLE... 
  PHOENIX...TALENT...CENTRAL POINT...EAGLE POINT.

* IMPACTS...SENSITIVE VEGETATION MAY BE DAMAGED BY FROST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$

STOCKTON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
915 AM PDT THU MAY 10 2012

.DISCUSSION...A RATHER FROSTY MORNING HERE IN JACKSON COUNTY. MANY
LOCATIONS BOTTOMED OUT RIGHT AT A FREEZING 32 DEGREES. THE COLDEST
LOCATION WE HEARD FROM WAS 29 DEGREES FROM AN ORCHARDIST. DOUGLAS
COUNTY HAD A FEW SPOTS IN THE LOWER 30S BUT MOST AREAS BOTTOMED
OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. MOS GUIDANCE IS WARMING TONIGHTS LOWS
ABOUT 3 TO 4 DEGREES.

OFFSHORE FLOW IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR THE COAST. THE CHETCO
EFFECT SHOULD WARM BROOKINGS WELL INTO THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME SPOTS CRACKING 80 DEGREES. THIS OFFSHORE EVENT WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS MORE NORMAL COOL COASTAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW.

A QUICK WARMING TREND IS IN STORE AFTER YESTERDAYS DRY COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. ABOUT 5 DEGREES OF WARMING EXPECT TODAY WEST OF
THE CASCADES. EAST OF THE CASCADES AND IN CALIFORNIA...TEMPS WILL
ACTUALLY BE COOLER BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES AS THE COLD FRONT PASSED
THROUGH THOSE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY AFTER MAXIMUM AFTERNOON
HEATING TOOK PLACE. HOWEVER...ALL LOCATIONS WILL SEE SUBSTANTIAL
WARMING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA. TEN DEGREES OF WARMING FOR FRIDAY AND ANOTHER 5 TO
8 DEGREES OF WARMING FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN A DRY AIR MASS. GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL OCCUR AT THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM PDT THU MAY 10 2012/

DISCUSSION...LATEST IR IMAGE SHOWS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXITING THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN IT'S WAKE WILL BE CLEAR
SKIES. A FEW CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM NORTH OVER THE MARINE WATERS,
BUT THAT'S ABOUT IT. OFFSHORE FLOW SETS UP TODAY WITH A THERMAL
TROUGH POSITIONED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST OREGON COAST. THIS WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING OFFSHORE WINDS WITH THE CHETCO EFFECT TAKING HOLD. SO
BROOKINGS WILL LIKELY BE THE WARM SPOT IN OUR REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE LOWER 80S. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MILDER.

SKIES REMAIN CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND WE COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE WESTSIDE VALLEYS
WHICH MAY NECESSITATE ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH
SHIFTING INLAND. THE THERMAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER
THE ROGUE VALLEY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR 20C
SATURDAY AND 23C SUNDAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO PUSH INTO THE
LOWER 90S.

THE EC AND GFS SHOW AN UPPER LOW MOVING TOWARDS NORTHERN CAL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THEN MOVING INLAND MONDAY. THE EC IS A LITTLE
FASTER WITH THIS, BUT HAS THE UPPER LOW TRACKING FARTHER SOUTH
WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER AND TRACKS IT FARTHER NORTH INTO NW CAL.
WHICH IF CORRECT COULD BRING A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTING IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF ISOLATED STORMS. HOWEVER GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, WE'LL KEEP
THINGS DRY AND EVALUATE THIS DAY TO DAY. -PETRUCELLI

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN A DRY AIR MASS. GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL OCCUR AT THE SOUTHERN OREGON COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ021.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR ORZ021-022.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ350.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ356.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR PZZ350.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ370.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ370.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ376.

07/99/99