Alert archive / Oregon / Flood Watches in 2012
Flood Watch 8, NWS Medford, OR
NWS Medford, OR issued this flood watch at Dec 3, 2012, 3:49 PM PST for 7 counties in Oregon; Siskiyou County, California. It took effect at Dec 3, 2012, 10:00 PM PST. It was in force for 35 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Dec 3, 2012, 3:49 PM PST (23:49 UTC)
- In effect from
- Dec 3, 2012, 10:00 PM PST
- Expired
- Dec 5, 2012, 9:00 AM PST
- In force
- 35 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Medford, OR
- Flood severity
- None
Counties Siskiyou County, CA, Coos County, OR, Curry County, OR, Douglas County, OR, Jackson County, OR, Josephine County, OR, Klamath County, OR, Lake County, OR
The radar
The Medford radar (KMAX), 58 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Medford/Jackson, OR (KMFR), launched 12:00Z, 11.8 hours before the alert went out and 26 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1103 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 54 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 95 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 198 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
811 WGUS66 KMFR 032349 FFAMFR URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 349 PM PST MON DEC 3 2012 ...MORE FLOODING POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY... .ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SEND A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO THE GROUND ALREADY BEING SATURATED...RUN OFF IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR QUICKLY ONCE RAINFALL STARTS. SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING IS LIKELY AND CREEK AND RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. CAZ080-081-ORZ021>024-041500- /O.NEW.KMFR.FA.A.0008.121204T0600Z-121205T1800Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY-CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY- SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON COAST-CURRY COUNTY COAST- CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY-EASTERN CURRY COUNTY AND JOSEPHINE COUNTY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ETNA...FORT JONES...GREENVIEW...YREKA... WEED...COOS BAY...NORTH BEND...REEDSPORT...BANDON...PORT ORFORD... COQUILLE...BROOKINGS...HARBOR...GOLD BEACH...DRAIN...ELKTON... ROSEBURG...SUTHERLIN...GREEN...MYRTLE CREEK...CANYONVILLE... GLENDALE...GRANTS PASS...CAVE JUNCTION 349 PM PST MON DEC 3 2012 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM PST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST OREGON...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. IN SOUTHWEST OREGON...CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY...CURRY COUNTY COAST...EASTERN CURRY COUNTY AND JOSEPHINE COUNTY AND SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON COAST. * FROM 10 PM PST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING * AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAINFALL WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TOTALS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. DAY AND A HALF TO TWO DAY RAIN AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE 5 TO 9 INCHES IN CURRY COUNTY...3 TO 7 INCHES IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY...2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS OUTSIDE OF CURRY COUNTY...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE INLAND VALLEYS. * FLOODING IS LIKELY ON SMALL STREAMS...CREEKS...AND SOME RIVERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...PARTICULARLY IN THE COQUILLE RIVER BASIN. FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE UMPQUA BASIN. THE CHETCO RIVER MAY NEAR ACTION STAGE...AND SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING IS LIKELY IN CURRY COUNTY. ADDITIONALLY...ROCK AND MUDSLIDES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN STEEP TERRAIN. DEBRIS FLOWS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN BURN AREAS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... LANDSLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOWS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS FLOOD EVENT. PEOPLE...STRUCTURES AND ROADS LOCATED BELOW STEEP SLOPES...IN CANYONS AND NEAR THE MOUTHS OF CANYONS MAY BE A SERIOUS RISK FROM RAPIDLY MOVING LANDSLIDES. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. && $$ CAZ082-083-ORZ025>030-041500- /O.NEW.KMFR.FA.A.0008.121204T1200Z-121206T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ SOUTH CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY- NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST SISKIYOU COUNTY- EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY FOOTHILLS-JACKSON COUNTY- SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES- SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES-KLAMATH BASIN- NORTHERN AND EASTERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND WESTERN LAKE COUNTY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT SHASTA...DUNSMUIR...MCCLOUD... TENNANT...STEAMBOAT...TOKETEE FALLS...MEDFORD...ASHLAND... CRATER LAKE...CRESCENT LAKE...DIAMOND LAKE...UNION CREEK... HOWARD PRAIRIE...SISKIYOU SUMMIT...ALTAMONT...KLAMATH FALLS... BEATTY...BLY...CHEMULT...CRESCENT...GILCHRIST...SPRAGUE RIVER 349 PM PST MON DEC 3 2012 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEDFORD HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OREGON... INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST SISKIYOU COUNTY AND SOUTH CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY. IN OREGON...EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY FOOTHILLS...JACKSON COUNTY...KLAMATH BASIN...NORTHERN AND EASTERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND WESTERN LAKE COUNTY...SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES. * FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON * MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND COMBINING WITH HIGH ELEVATION SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS...2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MOUNT SHASTA AREA...AND HALF AN INCH TO TWO INCHES IN THE UPPER KLAMATH BASIN. * URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS LIKELY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...SOME FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON CREEKS AND RIVERS...PARTICULARLY LITTLE BUTTE CREEK...BEAR CREEK...THE ROGUE AND SPRAGUE RIVERS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... LANDSLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOWS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS FLOOD EVENT. PEOPLE...STRUCTURES AND ROADS LOCATED BELOW STEEP SLOPES...IN CANYONS AND NEAR THE MOUTHS OF CANYONS MAY BE A SERIOUS RISK FROM RAPIDLY MOVING LANDSLIDES.A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. && $$ BTL
5 follow-up statements
277 WGUS66 KMFR 041221 FFAMFR FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 421 AM PST TUE DEC 4 2012 ...MORE FLOODING POSSIBLE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY... .ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SEND A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO THE GROUND ALREADY BEING SATURATED...RUN OFF IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR QUICKLY. SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING IS LIKELY AND CREEK AND RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. CAZ080-081-ORZ021>024-042030- /O.CON.KMFR.FA.A.0008.000000T0000Z-121205T1800Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY-CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY- SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON COAST-CURRY COUNTY COAST- CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY-EASTERN CURRY COUNTY AND JOSEPHINE COUNTY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ETNA...FORT JONES...GREENVIEW...YREKA... WEED...COOS BAY...NORTH BEND...REEDSPORT...BANDON...PORT ORFORD... COQUILLE...BROOKINGS...HARBOR...GOLD BEACH...DRAIN...ELKTON... ROSEBURG...SUTHERLIN...GREEN...MYRTLE CREEK...CANYONVILLE... GLENDALE...GRANTS PASS...CAVE JUNCTION 421 AM PST TUE DEC 4 2012 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST OREGON... INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA... CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. IN SOUTHWEST OREGON...CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY...CURRY COUNTY COAST...EASTERN CURRY COUNTY AND JOSEPHINE COUNTY AND SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON COAST. * THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING * AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAINFALL WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TOTALS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAIN AMOUNTS WITH THIS STORM ARE LIKELY TO BE 4 TO 8 INCHES IN CURRY COUNTY... 3 TO 4 INCHES IN COOS COUNTY...3 TO 7 INCHES IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY...2 TO 4 INCHES IN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF CURRY COUNTY...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE INLAND VALLEYS. * FLOODING IS LIKELY ON SMALL STREAMS...CREEKS...AND SOME RIVERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...PARTICULARLY IN THE COQUILLE RIVER BASIN. FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE UMPQUA BASIN. THE CHETCO RIVER MAY NEAR ACTION STAGE...AND SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING IS LIKELY IN CURRY COUNTY. ADDITIONALLY...ROCK AND MUDSLIDES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN STEEP TERRAIN. DEBRIS FLOWS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN BURN AREAS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... LANDSLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOWS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS FLOOD EVENT. PEOPLE...STRUCTURES AND ROADS LOCATED BELOW STEEP SLOPES...IN CANYONS AND NEAR THE MOUTHS OF CANYONS MAY BE A SERIOUS RISK FROM RAPIDLY MOVING LANDSLIDES. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. && $$ CAZ082-083-ORZ025>030-042030- /O.CON.KMFR.FA.A.0008.000000T0000Z-121206T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ SOUTH CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY- NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST SISKIYOU COUNTY- EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY FOOTHILLS-JACKSON COUNTY- SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES- SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES-KLAMATH BASIN- NORTHERN AND EASTERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND WESTERN LAKE COUNTY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT SHASTA...DUNSMUIR...MCCLOUD... TENNANT...STEAMBOAT...TOKETEE FALLS...MEDFORD...ASHLAND... CRATER LAKE...CRESCENT LAKE...DIAMOND LAKE...UNION CREEK... HOWARD PRAIRIE...SISKIYOU SUMMIT...ALTAMONT...KLAMATH FALLS... BEATTY...BLY...CHEMULT...CRESCENT...GILCHRIST...SPRAGUE RIVER 421 AM PST TUE DEC 4 2012 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OREGON...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST SISKIYOU COUNTY AND SOUTH CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY. IN OREGON...EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY FOOTHILLS...JACKSON COUNTY...KLAMATH BASIN...NORTHERN AND EASTERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND WESTERN LAKE COUNTY...SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES. * THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON * MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND COMBINING WITH HIGH ELEVATION SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS...2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MOUNT SHASTA AREA...AND HALF AN INCH TO TWO INCHES IN THE UPPER KLAMATH BASIN. * URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS LIKELY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...SOME FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON CREEKS AND RIVERS...PARTICULARLY LITTLE BUTTE CREEK...BEAR CREEK...THE ROGUE AND SPRAGUE RIVERS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... LANDSLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOWS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS FLOOD EVENT. PEOPLE...STRUCTURES AND ROADS LOCATED BELOW STEEP SLOPES...IN CANYONS AND NEAR THE MOUTHS OF CANYONS MAY BE A SERIOUS RISK FROM RAPIDLY MOVING LANDSLIDES.A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. && $$ CC
468 WGUS66 KMFR 042006 FFAMFR FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 1206 PM PST TUE DEC 4 2012 ...MORE FLOODING POSSIBLE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY... .MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AS A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA. THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD FROM OREGON INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THE GROUND ALREADY BEING SATURATED...RUN OFF IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR QUICKLY. SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING IS LIKELY AND CREEK AND RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. CAZ080-081-ORZ021>024-050400- /O.CON.KMFR.FA.A.0008.000000T0000Z-121205T1800Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY-CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY- SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON COAST-CURRY COUNTY COAST- CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY-EASTERN CURRY COUNTY AND JOSEPHINE COUNTY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ETNA...FORT JONES...GREENVIEW...YREKA... WEED...COOS BAY...NORTH BEND...REEDSPORT...BANDON...PORT ORFORD... COQUILLE...BROOKINGS...HARBOR...GOLD BEACH...DRAIN...ELKTON... ROSEBURG...SUTHERLIN...GREEN...MYRTLE CREEK...CANYONVILLE... GLENDALE...GRANTS PASS...CAVE JUNCTION 1206 PM PST TUE DEC 4 2012 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST OREGON... INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA... CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. IN SOUTHWEST OREGON...CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY...CURRY COUNTY COAST...EASTERN CURRY COUNTY AND JOSEPHINE COUNTY AND SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON COAST. * THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING * AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAINFALL WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TOTALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAIN AMOUNTS WITH THIS STORM ARE LIKELY TO BE 4 TO 8 INCHES IN CURRY COUNTY... 3 TO 4 INCHES IN COOS COUNTY...3 TO 7 INCHES IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY...2 TO 4 INCHES IN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF CURRY COUNTY...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE INLAND VALLEYS. * FLOODING IS LIKELY ON SMALL STREAMS...CREEKS...AND SOME RIVERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...PARTICULARLY IN THE COQUILLE RIVER BASIN. FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE UMPQUA BASIN. THE CHETCO RIVER MAY NEAR ACTION STAGE...AND SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING IS LIKELY IN CURRY COUNTY. ADDITIONALLY...ROCK AND MUDSLIDES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN STEEP TERRAIN. DEBRIS FLOWS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN BURN AREAS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... LANDSLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOWS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS FLOOD EVENT. PEOPLE...STRUCTURES AND ROADS LOCATED BELOW STEEP SLOPES...IN CANYONS AND NEAR THE MOUTHS OF CANYONS MAY BE AT A SERIOUS RISK FROM RAPIDLY MOVING LANDSLIDES. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. && $$ CAZ082-083-ORZ025>030-050400- /O.CON.KMFR.FA.A.0008.000000T0000Z-121206T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ SOUTH CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY- NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST SISKIYOU COUNTY- EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY FOOTHILLS-JACKSON COUNTY- SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES- SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES-KLAMATH BASIN- NORTHERN AND EASTERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND WESTERN LAKE COUNTY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT SHASTA...DUNSMUIR...MCCLOUD... TENNANT...STEAMBOAT...TOKETEE FALLS...MEDFORD...ASHLAND... CRATER LAKE...CRESCENT LAKE...DIAMOND LAKE...UNION CREEK... HOWARD PRAIRIE...SISKIYOU SUMMIT...ALTAMONT...KLAMATH FALLS... BEATTY...BLY...CHEMULT...CRESCENT...GILCHRIST...SPRAGUE RIVER 1206 PM PST TUE DEC 4 2012 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OREGON...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST SISKIYOU COUNTY AND SOUTH CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY. IN OREGON...EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY FOOTHILLS...JACKSON COUNTY...KLAMATH BASIN...NORTHERN AND EASTERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND WESTERN LAKE COUNTY...SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES. * THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON * MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND COMBINING WITH HIGH ELEVATION SNOW MELT WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS...2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MOUNT SHASTA AREA...AND HALF AN INCH TO TWO INCHES IN THE UPPER KLAMATH BASIN. * URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS LIKELY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...SOME FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON CREEKS AND RIVERS...PARTICULARLY LITTLE BUTTE CREEK...BEAR CREEK...THE ROGUE AND SPRAGUE RIVERS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... LANDSLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOWS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS FLOOD EVENT. PEOPLE...STRUCTURES AND ROADS LOCATED BELOW STEEP SLOPES...IN CANYONS AND NEAR THE MOUTHS OF CANYONS MAY BE A SERIOUS RISK FROM RAPIDLY MOVING LANDSLIDES.A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. && $$ WRIGHT
221 WGUS66 KMFR 042239 FFAMFR URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 239 PM PST TUE DEC 4 2012 ...MORE FLOODING POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING... .MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST OREGON COAST THROUGH TONIGHT AS A VERY MOIST FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AGAIN THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT. THIS BURST OF RAIN MAY ALSO AFFECT THE NORTH OREGON COAST AS WELL AS INLAND VALLEYS AND THE CASCADES. THE GROUND REMAINS SATURATED AND DRAINAGE SYSTEMS ARE ALREADY NEAR CAPACITY...SO ADDITIONAL RAIN MAY POSE FLOODING PROBLEMS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AND CREEK AND RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLOODING EAST OF THE CASCADES. ORZ029-030-042345- /O.CAN.KMFR.FA.A.0008.000000T0000Z-121206T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ KLAMATH BASIN- NORTHERN AND EASTERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND WESTERN LAKE COUNTY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALTAMONT...KLAMATH FALLS...BEATTY... BLY...CHEMULT...CRESCENT...GILCHRIST...SPRAGUE RIVER 239 PM PST TUE DEC 4 2012 ...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... THE FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON INCLUDING THE KLAMATH BASIN HAS BEEN CANCELLED. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS. MINOR PONDING OF WATER IS POSSIBLE OVER LOW LYING AREAS. $$ ORZ025>028-051200- /O.EXT.KMFR.FA.A.0008.000000T0000Z-121205T1800Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY FOOTHILLS-JACKSON COUNTY- SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES- SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STEAMBOAT...TOKETEE FALLS...MEDFORD... ASHLAND...CRATER LAKE...CRESCENT LAKE...DIAMOND LAKE... UNION CREEK...HOWARD PRAIRIE...SISKIYOU SUMMIT 239 PM PST TUE DEC 4 2012 ...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... THE FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR * PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON AND SOUTHWEST OREGON... INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON... SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES. IN SOUTHWEST OREGON...EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY FOOTHILLS AND JACKSON COUNTY. * THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. * RAIN IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AGAIN THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL RAIN MAY POSE FLOODING PROBLEMS AS THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED. * URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS LIKELY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...SOME FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON CREEKS AND RIVERS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... LANDSLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOWS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS FLOOD EVENT. PEOPLE...STRUCTURES AND ROADS LOCATED BELOW STEEP SLOPES...IN CANYONS AND NEAR THE MOUTHS OF CANYONS MAY BE A SERIOUS RISK FROM RAPIDLY MOVING LANDSLIDES.A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. && $$ CAZ082-083-051200- /O.EXT.KMFR.FA.A.0008.000000T0000Z-121205T1800Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ SOUTH CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY- NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST SISKIYOU COUNTY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT SHASTA...DUNSMUIR...MCCLOUD... TENNANT 239 PM PST TUE DEC 4 2012 ...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... THE FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR * A PORTION OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST SISKIYOU COUNTY AND SOUTH CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY. * THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING * MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA. * URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...SOME FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON CREEKS AND RIVERS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... LANDSLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOWS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS FLOOD EVENT. PEOPLE...STRUCTURES AND ROADS LOCATED BELOW STEEP SLOPES...IN CANYONS AND NEAR THE MOUTHS OF CANYONS MAY BE A SERIOUS RISK FROM RAPIDLY MOVING LANDSLIDES.A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. && $$ ORZ021>024-051200- /O.CON.KMFR.FA.A.0008.000000T0000Z-121205T1800Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON COAST-CURRY COUNTY COAST- CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY-EASTERN CURRY COUNTY AND JOSEPHINE COUNTY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COOS BAY...NORTH BEND...REEDSPORT... BANDON...PORT ORFORD...COQUILLE...BROOKINGS...HARBOR... GOLD BEACH...DRAIN...ELKTON...ROSEBURG...SUTHERLIN...GREEN... MYRTLE CREEK...CANYONVILLE...GLENDALE...GRANTS PASS... CAVE JUNCTION 239 PM PST TUE DEC 4 2012 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * A PORTION OF SOUTHWEST OREGON...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY...CURRY COUNTY COAST...EASTERN CURRY COUNTY AND JOSEPHINE COUNTY AND SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON COAST. * THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING * RAIN IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AGAIN THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE HEAVY WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE CURRY COAST AND MOUNTAINS AND 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN WESTERN OREGON. ADDITIONAL RAIN MAY POSE FLOODING PROBLEMS AS THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED. * URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS LIKELY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...SOME FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON CREEKS... STREAMS...AND SOME RIVERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...PARTICULARLY IN THE COQUILLE RIVER BASIN. FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE UMPQUA BASIN. ADDITIONALLY...ROCK AND MUDSLIDES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN STEEP TERRAIN. DEBRIS FLOWS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN BURN AREAS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... LANDSLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOWS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS FLOOD EVENT. PEOPLE...STRUCTURES AND ROADS LOCATED BELOW STEEP SLOPES...IN CANYONS AND NEAR THE MOUTHS OF CANYONS MAY BE AT A SERIOUS RISK FROM RAPIDLY MOVING LANDSLIDES. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. && $$ CAZ080-081-051200- /O.CON.KMFR.FA.A.0008.000000T0000Z-121205T1800Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY-CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ETNA...FORT JONES...GREENVIEW...YREKA... WEED 239 PM PST TUE DEC 4 2012 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * A PORTION OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY. * THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING * MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AGAIN THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA...AND LOCALLY UP TO 4 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. * URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS LIKELY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...SOME FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON CREEKS... STREAMS AND RIVERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ROCK AND MUDSLIDES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN STEEP TERRAIN. DEBRIS FLOWS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN BURN AREAS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... LANDSLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOWS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS FLOOD EVENT. PEOPLE...STRUCTURES AND ROADS LOCATED BELOW STEEP SLOPES...IN CANYONS AND NEAR THE MOUTHS OF CANYONS MAY BE AT A SERIOUS RISK FROM RAPIDLY MOVING LANDSLIDES. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. && $$ WRIGHT
469 WGUS66 KMFR 051154 FFAMFR FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 354 AM PST WED DEC 5 2012 CAZ080>083-ORZ021-023>028-051300- /O.CAN.KMFR.FA.A.0008.000000T0000Z-121205T1800Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY-CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY- SOUTH CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY- NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST SISKIYOU COUNTY- SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON COAST-CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTY- EASTERN CURRY COUNTY AND JOSEPHINE COUNTY- EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY FOOTHILLS-JACKSON COUNTY- SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES- SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ETNA...FORT JONES...GREENVIEW...YREKA... WEED...MOUNT SHASTA...DUNSMUIR...MCCLOUD...TENNANT...COOS BAY... NORTH BEND...REEDSPORT...BANDON...PORT ORFORD...COQUILLE... DRAIN...ELKTON...ROSEBURG...SUTHERLIN...GREEN...MYRTLE CREEK... CANYONVILLE...GLENDALE...GRANTS PASS...CAVE JUNCTION... STEAMBOAT...TOKETEE FALLS...MEDFORD...ASHLAND...CRATER LAKE... CRESCENT LAKE...DIAMOND LAKE...UNION CREEK...HOWARD PRAIRIE... SISKIYOU SUMMIT 354 AM PST WED DEC 5 2012 ...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... THE FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OREGON HAS BEEN CANCELLED. PRECIPITATION HAS DECREASED AND SHIFTED SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. $$ ORZ022-051800- /O.CON.KMFR.FA.A.0008.000000T0000Z-121205T1800Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ CURRY COUNTY COAST- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BROOKINGS...HARBOR...GOLD BEACH 354 AM PST WED DEC 5 2012 ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING... THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * A PORTION OF SOUTHWEST OREGON...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREA... CURRY COUNTY COAST. * UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING * RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE THIS MORNING HOWEVER THE ADDITIONAL RAIN MAY POSE FLOODING PROBLEMS AS THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED. * URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS LIKELY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...SOME FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON CREEKS... STREAMS...AND SOME RIVERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...ROCK AND MUDSLIDES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN STEEP TERRAIN. DEBRIS FLOWS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN BURN AREAS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... LANDSLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOWS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS FLOOD EVENT. PEOPLE...STRUCTURES AND ROADS LOCATED BELOW STEEP SLOPES...IN CANYONS AND NEAR THE MOUTHS OF CANYONS MAY BE AT A SERIOUS RISK FROM RAPIDLY MOVING LANDSLIDES. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON CURRENT FORECASTS. YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. && $$ PETRUCELLI
497 WGUS66 KMFR 051700 FFAMFR FLOOD WATCH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 900 AM PST WED DEC 5 2012 ORZ022-051800- /O.CAN.KMFR.FA.A.0008.000000T0000Z-121205T1800Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ CURRY COUNTY COAST- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BROOKINGS...HARBOR...GOLD BEACH 900 AM PST WED DEC 5 2012 ...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... THE FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHWEST OREGON HAS BEEN CANCELLED. HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ENDED OVER THE AREA. THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS...RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE...AND AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL RUN HIGH THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. BUT FURTHER IMPACTS FROM FLOODING ARE NOT EXPECTED. $$ WRIGHT
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flood watch went out at Dec 3, 9:08 AM PST, 6 hours 41 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Dec 3, 9:08 AM PST, 6 hours 41 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
908 AM PST MON DEC 3 2012
.DISCUSSION...
WITH THE GROUND STILL TRYING TO DRAIN OUT EXCESS WATER TODAY AND
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION PRODUCING STORM SYSTEM DUE IN
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY, OUR FOCUS HAS SHIFTED MOSTLY TO
THE UPCOMING HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS. THOSE WHO LIVE ON OR NEAR
STREAMS...CREEKS...AND RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED
FOR HIGH FLOWS AND THE POTENTIAL OF FLOODING TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AT THE CURRENT TIME, NO MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE FORECAST BY
THE RIVER FORECAST CENTER TO FLOOD, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING...EVEN ON THE MAIN STEMS CURRENTLY EXISTS.
THE INCOMING SYSTEM WILL HAVE ALARMINGLY HIGH SNOW LEVELS WITH
RAIN IN SNOW EXPECTED IN OUR MOUNTAINS. THE SNOW PACK REALLY IS AT
6000 FEET AND ABOVE AND MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES WESTWARD. WHILE
THIS MEANS THE AVAILABLE EXTRA WATER FROM THE SNOWPACK IS
LIMITED...IT APPEARS WE COULD ADD AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RUNOFF FROM THE MOUNTAINS WITH THIS NEXT STORM. ADD TO THAT WATER
AMOUNTS OF FROM THE PRECIPITATION FALLING OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER
ABOUT A 36 HOUR PERIOD OVER THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS, 1 TO 3
INCHES FOR THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS, AND 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS CURRY,
JOSEPHINE AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTIES. THUS, THE CURRENT
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK IS LIKELY TO BECOME AN AREAL FLOOD WATCH OVER
MUCH OF THE WEST SIDE LATER TODAY. WE DO EXPECT UPDATED FORECASTS
FROM THE RIVER FORECAST CENTERS FOR THE MAIN STEM RIVERS...AS WELL.
NO IMMEDIATE UPDATES WILL BE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE ROGUE RIVER AT AGNESS HAS FALLEN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. THE
COQUILLE AT COQUILLE STILL REMAINS AT MODERATE FLOODING AND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION OVER A 36 HOUR PERIOD FROM THIS
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING HAS SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL TO
CAUSE MORE FLOODING GIVEN ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE STAY TUNED
FOR FURTHER UPDATES.
&&
.CLIMATE...
YESTERDAY ENDED A 4 DAY PERIOD AT MEDFORD AIRPORT WITH 4.39 INCHES
OF PRECIPITATION. THIS RANKED 19TH IN THE CLIMATE RECORD FOR ALL
TIME WETTEST 4 DAY PERIODS...AND WAS THE WETTEST 4 DAYS PERIOD
SINCE NOVEMBER 23RD OF 1998.
THE ASHLAND COOP SITE RECEIVED 4.78 INCHES DURING THIS SAME
PERIOD...WHICH RANKS AS THE 8TH WETTEST 4 DAY PERIOD ON
RECORD...AND WETTEST SINCE NOVEMBER 24TH OF 1998.
&&
.AVIATION...
BASED ON THE 03/12Z TAF CYCLE
MVFR CEILINGS AND LOCAL MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE PRESENT ALONG THE
COAST. OTHERWISE..CONDITIONS ARE VFR THIS MORNING WITH MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS LOCALLY CREATING OBSCURATION OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...BECOME STRONG THIS
EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. ANOTHER STRONG FRONT
WITH A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST THIS EVENING AND AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM PST MON DEC 3 2012/
DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE IMPRESSIVE UPCOMING
WEATHER SYSTEM REGARDING WINDS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS...AND FLOOD
POTENTIAL. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE SURGING
NORTHEAST FROM THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC COMBINES WITH LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. THESE LOWS WILL TRANSPORT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
SOUTHERN OREGON AND FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TONIGHT AND
LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES GREATER THAN 0.75 INCHES AT MEDFORD. THESE VALUES
APPROACH 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THIS UPCOMING STORM SHOULD HAVE EVEN HIGHER SNOW LEVELS THAN THE
PREVIOUS WEATHER SYSTEMS AS THE MOISTURE SOURCE REGION IS FARTHER
SOUTH THAN THESE PREVIOUS SYSTEMS. SNOW LEVELS TUESDAY MORNING
SHOULD QUICKLY RISE TO BETWEEN 7000 AND 9000 FEET...AND REMAIN IN
THIS RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. NOT SURE HOW
MUCH RAIN WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE HIGH ELEVATION SNOW PACK THAT
EXISTS ABOVE 6000 FEET VERSUS HOW MUCH OF THE SNOW PACK WILL MELT
AND ADD TO THE RIVER LEVELS.
NUMEROUS WIND WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...AND MARINE WARNINGS CONTINUE
IN EFFECT. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK TO HIGHLIGHT THE
FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. PARTS
OF THE COQUILLE AND LOWER ROGUE RIVERS ARE IN FLOOD AT THIS TIME.
SANDLER
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM PST TUESDAY FOR ORZ021-022.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM PST TUESDAY FOR ORZ030-031.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM PST TUESDAY FOR ORZ029.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM PST TUESDAY FOR CAZ084-085.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM PST TUESDAY FOR CAZ081.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM PST
TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM PST TUESDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
BTLThe office that day
Everything else NWS Medford, OR issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 3, 3:17 PM PST | High Surf Advisory | MFR | Coos, Curry, Douglas | 19 hr |
Nearby
Flood Watches in Oregon, 2012Flood Watches in California, 2012Every flood watch in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.