Areal Flood Warning 9, NWS Medford, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
925 AM PST THU NOV 29 2012

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF COLD CLOUD
TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH A POWERFUL FRONT MOVING INTO THE PACNW. THE
FRONT EXTENDS NORTH SOUTH ALONG MUCH OF THE OREGON COAST BUT IS
ORIENTED MORE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST OFF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT MOVING SLOWLY INLAND TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FRONT MAY BE MOVING INLAND FASTER THAN PREDICTED. HOWEVER DUE TO
THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT ON THE
SOUTHERN END EXPECT IT TO MOVE INLAND MORE SLOWLY OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING VERY HEAVY RAIN INTO CURRY
AND SISKIYOU COUNTIES...AS WELL AS HEAVY TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS
OTHER INLAND AREAS. CURRENTLY RAIN RATES HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS A
HALF INCH PER HOUR NEAR THE CURRY COAST. AREAS OF FLOODING REMAIN
A HIGH CONCERN TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR SMALL STREAMS ALONG AND
THE COAST AND JUST INLAND INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ALSO
RIVER RISE AND POTENTIAL FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THE COQUILLE
BASIN REMAIN A CONCERN.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY NEAR THE COAST TODAY.
THE EARLIER LINE OF STORMS OFF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN OREGON COAST
AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST HAS DISSIPATED. HOWEVER MODELS SHOW
WEAK INSTABILITY REMAINING ALONG THE COAST AND JUST INLAND THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE FRONT INLAND TODAY
THEN SHIFTING SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE SEEMS TO BE
WITH PLACEMENT OF A SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE FRONT AND INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. THE NAM BRINGS THIS SHORTWAVE INTO NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
AND BRINGS ANOTHER SHOT OF HEAVY RAIN INTO SISKIYOU COUNTY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE GFS BRINGS THIS FEATURE A LITTER FURTHER NORTHWEST.
EITHER CASE...EXPECT HEAVY TO MODERATE RAIN OVER SISKIYOU COUNTY
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR ENHANCED PRECIPITATION INTO
SISKIYOU COUNTY AND POSSIBLY WESTERN MODOC COUNTY LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY GUSTY OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH
STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS IN THE SHASTA VALLEY AND
SUMMER LAKE AREAS. THE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY ARE EAST SIDE AREAS. COASTAL WINDS GUSTED UP TO 60 TO 70
MPH RANGE EARLIER THIS MORNING BUT HAVE BEGUN TO COME DOWN WITH
GUSTS IN THE 45 MPH RANGE. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN A
CONCERN ALONG THE COAST THOUGH THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCOMING COLD FRONT
WILL CREATE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS AT KOTH/KRBG/KMFR
INTO THURSDAY EVENING. VFR AND MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE
CASCADES WEST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED
AND TURBULENT CONDITIONS DUE TO STRONG WINDS. EAST OF THE
CASCADES...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LOCAL MVFR
CIGS...BUT WINDS WILL BE STRONG MAKING FOR TURBULENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM PST THU NOV 29 2012/

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING A VERY POTENT
FRONTAL BAND POISED TO MOVE ONSHORE. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INTENSE BAND OF
PRECIPITATION SO HAVE ADDED ISOLD THUNDER TO THE GRIDS FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST/ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS TODAY. RAINFALL RATES VIA
AMSU HAVE BEEN 0.3-0.4"/HR WITHIN ITS CORE AND EXPECT THIS TO BE
REALIZED OVER PORTIONS OF SW OR AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD TRANSLATE TO
WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY MORE IN FAVORED
OROGRAPHIC AREAS OF CURRY/WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY THROUGH TONIGHT.
AREAL FLOOD WATCHES IN THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE UPGRADED
TO WARNINGS LATER THIS MORNING AS THE RAINFALL REALLY GETS
UNDERWAY.

HIGH WINDS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE COAST...ALREADY THERE HAS BEEN A
GUST TO 66 MPH AT FLYNN PRAIRIE RAWS AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE
GUSTS OF 80 TO 90 MPH AT THE HEADLANDS AS THE CORE OF THE BAND
MOVES THROUGH. STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE FELT INLAND OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA...STRONGEST IN THE SHASTA VALLEY NEAR WEED AND ALSO THE
EAST SIDE NEAR SUMMER LAKE. WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE GUSTY FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST SIDE AND THE ROGUE VALLEY, WHERE WIND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED TOO
AROUND MOUNT SHASTA, THOUGH SNOW LEVELS ARE FAIRLY HIGH UP AROUND
6000 FEET. THERE CAN BE SOME LOWERING OF THE SNOW LEVEL TODAY,
PERHAPS TO BETWEEN 5000 AND 5500 FEET, BUT MOST OF THE HEAVY SNOW
WILL BE RESERVED FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND SHIFTS SOUTH FRIDAY AND PRECIPITATION RATES
WILL EASE DURING LATE MORNING AND ESPECIALLY THE AFTERNOON. THIS
BREAK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL
BAND MOVES IN FRIDAY EVENING AND PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN/WIND HEADLINES, BUT THIS ONE APPEARS A BIT
WEAKER THAN THE ONE TODAY.

MODELS ARE SHOWING YET ANOTHER BLAST OF STRONG WINDS AND RAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS ONE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE
STRONG AS MODEL 700 MB WINDS ARE 80-90KT BY SUNDAY MORNING. SUFFICE
IT TO SAY, STORMY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SNOW
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER DOWN TO NEAR 3500 FEET WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT THE HIGHER PASSES BY MONDAY MORNING. A
BREAK IS EXPECTED AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT ANOTHER STORM IN THE
PIPELINE IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SPILDE

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR ORZ029>031.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ028.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ021-022.
     HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR ORZ021-022.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR ORZ021-023.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR ORZ026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ026.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ084-085.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR CAZ080-082-083.
     FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR CAZ081.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST FRIDAY ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR
     CAZ082-083.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ081.

PZ...STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON PST TODAY FOR PZZ370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

CC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
812 AM PST THU NOV 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       6 SW MERLIN             42.46N 123.49W
11/29/2012  M1.01 INCH       JOSEPHINE          OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2 HOUR TOTAL

&&

BPN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
856 AM PST THU NOV 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       W DUNSMUIR              41.23N 122.27W
11/29/2012  M1.66 INCH       SISKIYOU           CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR TOTAL 0800L WED TO 0800L THU.

0815 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SSW OBRIEN            42.05N 123.71W
11/29/2012  M1.00 INCH       JOSEPHINE          OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1 INCH IF RAIN SINCE MIDNIGHT. 1.14 24 HOUR AMOUNT.

&&

LUTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
947 AM PST THU NOV 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 N MERLIN              42.57N 123.43W
11/29/2012  M1.04 INCH       JOSEPHINE          OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            7AM TO 7AM.

&&

GLASER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
951 AM PST THU NOV 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 NNE SELMA             42.35N 123.57W
11/29/2012  M1.08 INCH       JOSEPHINE          OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            830AM TO 830AM.

&&

GLASER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1013 AM PST THU NOV 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     HEAVY RAIN       10 W GRANTS PASS        42.44N 123.52W
11/29/2012  M1.97 INCH       JOSEPHINE          OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AMOUNT REPORTED AS OCCURING IN LESS THAN 12 HOURS.

&&

LUTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1114 AM PST THU NOV 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SSW OBRIEN            42.05N 123.71W
11/29/2012  M1.00 INCH       JOSEPHINE          OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            8AM TO 11AM.

1100 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NE SEIAD VALLEY       41.86N 123.16W
11/29/2012  M1.00 INCH       SISKIYOU           CA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            7AM TO 11AM.

1100 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 ESE BROOKINGS         42.05N 124.26W
11/29/2012  M1.78 INCH       CURRY              OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            11AM TO 11AM.

1100 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 ESE BROOKINGS         42.05N 124.26W
11/29/2012  M1.78 INCH       CURRY              OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            11AM TO 11AM.

&&

GLASER