Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
207 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

.DISCUSSION...HURRICANE SANDY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING OVER
THE WEEKEND. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS TO THE NORTHWEST OF
SANDY ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THIS HAS ENHANCED SOME OF THE
OUTER BANDS AS THEY ROTATE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. SANDY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE IN A NORTH DIRECTION ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINING ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO
THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL FROM THIS FEATURE WILL HOW
IT INTERACTS WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND THE DIURNAL CYCLE OF
ENHANCED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE GULF STREAM. THE RAPID
REFRESH DOES INDICATE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY INTENSIFYING AROUND
MIDNIGHT BUT REMAINING OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THIS
TREND WILL NEED TO BARE WATCHING. BUT FOR NOW, WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND FOREGO ANY MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL AT
THIS TIME. BY LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, A POWERFUL MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA AND
THIS WILL ACCELERATE SANDY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
SOUTH FLORIDA WITH A STRONG DRYING TREND AS A DEEP NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS.

AS THE WIND DOES BEGIN TO BACK AROUND FROM THE NORTHEAST TO A NORTH
DIRECTION AND OF COURSE AT A STRONG WIND SPEED UNTIL THEY BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR HIGH SURF ALONG THE
COASTS OF PALM BEACH AND BROWARD COUNTIES. THIS THREAT WILL ALSO
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THE WIND AND SEAS DIMINISH.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, A BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE
DEVELOPING. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WHICH WILL BRING IN MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIR TO SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THE COOLEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IN FACT, TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING COULD RANGE FROM AROUND 50 ALONG THE WEST PORTION OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND THE 50S ELSEWHERE EXCEPT LOWER 60S ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...HURRICANE SANDY IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH
TONIGHT AND INTO THE BAHAMA ISLANDS ON FRIDAY...BEFORE MOVING AWAY
FROM SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE INTO TONIGHT AND PEAK SOMETIME ON FRIDAY...BEFORE
STEADILY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH TONIGHT AND TO THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR ROUGH SEAS TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE SEAS WILL THEN SLOWLY DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR
MORE INFORMATION ON THE WINDS AND SEAS...PLEASE REFER OUR LOCAL
HURRICANE STATEMENT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE ON SATURDAY AS
HURRICANE SANDY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND SURFACE WIND SHIFTS TO
THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  83  73  81 / 60 60 50 10
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  83  72  81 / 60 60 30 10
MIAMI            75  82  72  82 / 60 60 30 10
NAPLES           73  84  71  83 / 40 40 20 -

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
     METRO BROWARD-METRO MIAMI DADE-METRO PALM BEACH.

     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-
     COASTAL PALM BEACH.

AM...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BISCAYNE BAY-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
     FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-LAKE
     OKEECHOBEE-WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL
     EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE
     BAHAMAS-WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL
     EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
     GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...30/KOB
AVIATION/RADAR...71/JE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
144 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
260845-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
144 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING COASTAL AREAS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE...
...GUSTY WINDS EAST COAST METRO AREAS...
...HIGH RISK RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AS WELL
AS THE ATLANTIC WATERS ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION REGARDING THE LOCAL IMPACTS ON SOUTH FLORIDA
FROM HURRICANE SANDY...PLEASE REFER TO OUR HURRICANE LOCAL
STATEMENTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

FOR MORE INFORMATION REGARDING THE LOCAL IMPACTS ON SOUTH FLORIDA
FROM HURRICANE SANDY...PLEASE REFER TO OUR HURRICANE LOCAL
STATEMENTS.

STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, ALONG WITH POSSIBLE RIP CURRENTS AT THE GULF BEACHES AS
WELL. THERE COULD ALSO BE HIGH SURF ISSUES ALONG THE EAST COAST
BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND.

LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE COULD FALL INTO THE 40S
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

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