Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
242 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT)
THE LATEST RUC13 400 MB ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED THE
LOCAL AREA UNDER MOIST SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE SCALE
UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTRY. SEVERAL WEAK
PIECES OF ENERGY TRANSLATING NORTHEAST OVER THE STATE WITHIN THIS
SW UPPER FLOW COMBINED WITH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE
SURFACE THAT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA
THIS WEEKEND WILL KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. FOR THIS
EVENING...THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATES SCATTERED STORMS
SETTING UP FROM NAPLES TO THE LAKE REGION...WHICH IS VERY SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ON SATURDAY...THE LATEST GFS
SOLUTION INDICATES A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
AS A WEAK VORT MAX LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO AN
ENHANCED PERIOD OF RAINFALL TOMORROW ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW. IF THIS
DOES OCCUR...WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD TRANSLATE TO FLOODING
CONCERNS DEPENDING ON WHERE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY BECOMES
CONCENTRATED.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WHATS LEFT OF THE PREVIOUSLY
DISCUSSED BOUNDARY OR DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AXIS IN PLACE ACROSS S FL
IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH AS ANOTHER REINFORCING
COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTH INTO THE REGION AND THE LARGE SCALE UPPER
TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY FASTER
THAN THE ECMWF AND NAM SOLUTIONS AND BEGINS TO INTRODUCE SOME DRIER
AIR AROUND THE LAKE REGION COME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. 85/AG

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY-THURSDAY)
THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST AS THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE ROCKIES. SOME SLIGHT
DRYING /DECREASE MAY OCCUR INITIALLY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN THE
THE NW BUT THE MODELS HINT AT AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
GULF AND MOVING NE ACROSS THE FLA PENINSULA IN THE LATTER PERIODS.
WILL STAY CLOSE TO EXTENDED GUIDANCE AND SEE WHAT DEVELOPS. JR

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH SEAS REMAINING AROUND NORMAL. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
COMBINED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
RAINFALL CHANCES ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS CAN
LOCALLY BECOME HIGHER IN AND AROUND ANY HEAVY SHOWERS OR STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  83  76  84 / 50 70 60 40
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  85  74  84 / 50 70 60 40
MIAMI            75  86  74  86 / 50 70 60 40
NAPLES           75  86  75  84 / 50 50 50 30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...85/AG
AVIATION/RADAR...84/AK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
403 AM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
212315-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
403 AM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012

...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
MAIN IMPACTS.

WIND: WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.

FLOODING: MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, COMBINED WITH
SATURATED SOILS, MAY LEAD TO THE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND FLOOD
PRONE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE EAST
COAST BEACHES AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND...WHILE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
529 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012

FLZ069-070-212215-
COASTAL COLLIER COUNTY FL INLAND COLLIER COUNTY FL
529 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
COLLIER COUNTY...FOR GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...

* UNTIL 615 PM EDT

* AT 526 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES
  SOUTHEAST OF GOLDEN GATE ESTATES TO 9 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE ROMANO...
  AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

* THE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT...
  SOUTH BLOCKS GOLDEN GATE...
  GOODLAND...
  CAPE ROMANO...
  MARCO ISLAND AIRPORT...
  FIDDLERS CREEK...
  BELLE MEADE...
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. THESE WINDS
CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED
SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM
PASSES.

LAT...LON 2615 8138 2586 8147 2586 8148 2588 8148
      2583 8153 2589 8155 2589 8159 2590 8165
      2589 8169 2587 8166 2584 8168 2591 8174
      2599 8176 2609 8181 2624 8182
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 114DEG 13KT 2616 8152 2572 8166

GREGORIA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
551 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012

FLZ069-070-212215-
COASTAL COLLIER COUNTY FL INLAND COLLIER COUNTY FL
551 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
COLLIER COUNTY...FOR GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH...

* UNTIL 615 PM EDT

* AT 526 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED
  TO DETECT A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
  FROM WEST TOLL GATE ON ALLIGATOR ALLEY TO MARCO ISLAND...
  MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH.

* THE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT...
  GOLDEN GATE...
  SOUTH NAPLES...
  MARCO ISLAND...
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE BRIEF BUT TORRENTIAL RAINS, SHARPLY
REDUCING VISIBILITY, AND GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH.

LAT...LON 2615 8138 2586 8147 2586 8148 2588 8148
      2583 8153 2589 8155 2589 8159 2590 8165
      2589 8169 2587 8166 2584 8168 2591 8174
      2599 8176 2609 8181 2624 8182
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 114DEG 13KT 2616 8152 2572 8166

GREGORIA