Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
149 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN
TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE CONTINUES
TO PUSH INLAND. AT THIS MOMENT...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS
WEAKENING...BUT THE INTERACTION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD HELP
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT EASTERN TERMINALS
EXCEPT KPBI WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS AND TSRA UNTIL
03/1830Z...AFTER THAT EXPECT VCTS AND LIGHTER WINDS. WILL AMEND IF
NECESARY. FOR KAPF...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO PUSH WEST TOWARDS THE
TERMINAL BY 03/19Z THROUGH THE EVENING.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT...FOR THIS REASON EXPECT VCSH OVERNIGHT AND VCTS TO BEGIN
AS EARLY AS 04/12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 948 AM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012/

UPDATE...
RECENTLY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE
RIDGE AXIS DUE TO AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM A WEAK UPPER
LOW NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST. THE EARLY MORNING UPPER-AIR SOUNDING
AT MIAMI INDICATED THIS WITH PRIMARILY WNW WINDS ALOFT. THE LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER
THE BAHAMAS WITH MOST OF THE SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE REMAINING JUST
EAST OF THE AXIS. THE LATEST NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
INITIALIZED WELL WITH THIS SURFACE TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA AND GENERALLY INDICATES IT CONTINUING WESTWARD OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...WILL LIKELY
SLIGHTLY ADJUST THE RAINFALL CHANCES UP THROUGH THIS TIME SATURDAY
IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES WERE
NECESSARY TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. 85/AG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 724 AM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012/

AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL UNTIL SCATTERED TSRA DEVELOPS THIS
AFTERNOON. SO HAVE VCTS ALL SITES. MORNING SHOWERS COULD MOVE
ONSHORE THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING. MVFR OR IFR IS POSSIBLE
WITH THE AFTERNOON TSRA, BUT THOSE CONDITIONS WOULD BE BRIEF. LIGHT
WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE NEAR 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

DG/KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012/

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE CHANCE OF RAIN TAPERS
DOWNWARD FROM MIDWEEK ON AS THE ATLC HIGH CENTER MOVES WESTWARD
PULLING SOME DRIER AIR OVER S FLA. A DEEP EASTERLY WIND FLOW
DICTATES THAT THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE IN THE W INTERIOR AND W
COAST AS HURRICANE ERNESTO APPROACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY
MID WEEK. AS ERNESTO TRACKS WESTWARD...AT THIS TIME...THE ONLY
EFFECT TO S FLA WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
WINDS FROM MIDWEEK ON. BUT KEEP AWARE OF NHC FORECASTS OF THE
DEVELOPMENT AND FORECAST MOVEMENT OF THIS STORM.

MARINE...AT THIS TIME...EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE BELOW 15 KNOTS WITH
SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT AT THIS TIME NO
HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED.

FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  79  89  77  88 / 30 50 40 40
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  89  79  88 / 30 50 40 40
MIAMI            78  90  79  89 / 30 50 40 40
NAPLES           77  91  77  89 / 20 50 40 50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...85/AG
AVIATION/RADAR...17/ERA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
423 AM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
032330-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
423 AM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
...RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INCREASING ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO THE WEEKEND...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG, CONTAINING FREQUENT LIGHTNING, WIND GUSTS TO AROUND
50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.

WIND: GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH IS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

HAIL: SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON.

FLOODING: STREET FLOODING AT ISOLATED LOCALES IS POSSIBLE THIS.

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES.

TEMPERATURES: MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, HOTTEST OVER INTERIOR COLLIER COUNTY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY. THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES
AND GUSTY WINDS.

HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER,
INDIVIDUAL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HIGH WIND, HAIL AND
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

GREGORIA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1245 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

FLZ072-074-031715-
METRO BROWARD COUNTY FL METROPOLITAN MIAMI DADE FL
1245 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN BROWARD COUNTY
  NORTHEASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY

* UNTIL 115 PM EDT

* AT 1241 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PINES BLVD
  AND UNIVERSITY DRIVE TO MIAMI LAKES. THESE STORMS WERE NEARLY
  STATIONARY.

* THE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT...
  MIAMI LAKES...
  MIAMI GARDENS...
  MIRAMAR PARKWAY AND UNIVERSITY DRIVE...
  NORTH PERRY AIRPORT...
  CAROL CITY...
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS FROM 45 TO 55 MPH...UP
TO NICKEL-SIZED HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION OF
THESE ARE POSSIBLE. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2604 8019 2584 8025 2587 8035 2608 8032
TIME...MOT...LOC 1645Z 297DEG 2KT 2600 8025 2588 8031

KOB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
105 PM EDT FRI AUG 03 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     HAIL             HIALEAH GARDENS         25.87N 80.34W
08/03/2012  E0.25 INCH       MIAMI-DADE         FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED PEA SIZED HAIL AT APPROXIMATELY
            4 MILES NORTHWEST FROM THE MIAMI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

&&

RIVERA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
136 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

FLZ073-074-173-031800-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE COUNTY FL INLAND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL METROPOLITAN
MIAMI DADE FL
136 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY

* UNTIL 200 PM EDT

* AT 133 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM THE
  HAMMOCKS TO REDLAND...AND MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

* THE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT...
  REDLAND...
  THE HAMMOCKS...
  KENDALE LAKES...
  WEST KENDALL...
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS FROM 45 TO 55 MPH...UP
TO NICKEL-SIZED HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION OF
THESE ARE POSSIBLE. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2574 8034 2551 8042 2550 8057 2574 8054
TIME...MOT...LOC 1737Z 280DEG 4KT 2569 8044 2551 8050

KOB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
140 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

FLZ067-068-168-031830-
COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY FL INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY FL METRO PALM
BEACH COUNTY FL
140 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  EASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY

* UNTIL 230 PM EDT

* AT 137 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
  STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR LAKE WORTH...MOVING WEST AT 20 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
  LAKE WORTH...
  WEST PALM BEACH...
  GREENACRES CITY...
  HAVERHILL...
  GOLDEN LAKES...
  WELLINGTON...
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. THESE WINDS
CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED
SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2655 8004 2644 8006 2648 8036 2680 8029
      2676 8003 2663 8003 2662 8004 2661 8003
      2660 8004 2659 8003 2655 8003
TIME...MOT...LOC 1738Z 107DEG 20KT 2661 8006

AK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
218 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

FLZ073-173-174-031845-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE COUNTY FL FAR SOUTH MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL INLAND
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL
218 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY

* UNTIL 245 PM EDT

* AT 216 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PA-HAY
  OKEE OVERLOOK TO HOMESTEAD GENERAL AIRPORT TO 4 MILES SOUTH OF
  FLORIDA CITY. THESE STORMS WERE NEARLY STATIONARY.

* THE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT...
  HOMESTEAD GENERAL AIRPORT...
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS FROM 45 TO 55 MPH...UP
TO NICKEL-SIZED HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION OF
THESE ARE POSSIBLE. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2555 8079 2554 8044 2529 8047 2530 8082
TIME...MOT...LOC 1817Z 191DEG 2KT 2544 8076 2551 8060
          2540 8049

KOB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
220 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

FLZ067-068-168-031900-
COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY FL INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY FL METRO PALM
BEACH COUNTY FL
220 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY

* UNTIL 300 PM EDT

* AT 216 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES
  WEST OF JUPITER TO 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF WELLINGTON...AND MOVING
  WEST AT 10 MPH.

* THE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT...
  NORTH COUNTY AIRPORT...
  LION COUNTRY SAFARI...
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2662 8017 2666 8055 2696 8043 2696 8024
      2696 8015 2698 8014 2698 8008 2696 8007
      2688 8005
TIME...MOT...LOC 1819Z 111DEG 9KT 2693 8017 2670 8031

AK