Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
232 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...LATEST 850MB STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROPICAL WAVE/TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND INTO THE WESTERN CARIB.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE MAINLY TO
THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. MDLS MOVE THIS SYSTEM WESTWARD
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA FROM FRI EVENING TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GFS ALSO SHOWS
AN UPPER LOW MOVING WEST AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND POSITIONS IT WEST OF
THE PENINSULA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THIS TWO
SYSTEMS WILL NOT ONLY RESULT IN INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT, BUT ALSO INCREASED UPPER LVL DIVERGENCE
RESULTING IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...TROPICAL WAVE AND UPPER LOW
MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD MOVE WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA BY MONDAY AND
BE REPLACED BY AN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE EAST FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL TEND FOCUS AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
MOSTLY OVER INTERIOR/WESTERN AREAS, WHILE NIGHTTIME/EARLY MORNING
SHWRS/TSTMS COULD BE EXPERIENCED OVER ERN AREAS.

TD#5 JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE RATHER FAST WESTWARD NEXT FEW DAYS
AND SHOULD BE NEAR THE ISLANDS BY FRIDAY. THE FUTURE TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL GREATER DEPEND ON ITS ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY AS
WELL AS ON THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THE CURRENT FORECAST
THINKING FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS THAT THE EASTERLY
STEERING CURRENT AROUND THE BASE OF THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE
DEPRESSION ON A MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME, IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD HAVE ANY EFFECT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA. HOWEVER, IF THE LONG RANGE GFS VERIFIES, THERE COULD BE
BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE ATLANTIC RIDGE.

&&

.MARINE...PLEASANT BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE AT LEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR
SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  89  78  89 / 20 30 30 50
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  90  77  89 / 10 30 30 50
MIAMI            78  91  77  90 / 10 30 30 40
NAPLES           77  91  77  90 / 10 30 20 30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...47/RGH
AVIATION/RADAR...30/KOB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
345 AM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
022245-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
345 AM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTERIOR/EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, FOCUSED ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND TOWARDS THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, CONTAINING
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.

WIND: GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH IS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

HAIL: SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON.

FLOODING: SLOW STORMS MOVEMENT WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
STREET FLOODING AT ISOLATED LOCALES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING.

TEMPERATURES: MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES WILL REACH AROUND 100 DEGREES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY. THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES
AND GUSTY WINDS.

HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER INDIVIDUAL
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HIGH WIND, HAIL AND FLOODING TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

GREGORIA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
318 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

FLZ066-070-022000-
HENDRY FL INLAND COLLIER COUNTY FL
318 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL HENDRY COUNTY
  NORTH CENTRAL COLLIER COUNTY

* UNTIL 400 PM EDT

* AT 315 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AVE MARIA...AND MOVING
  NORTH AT 15 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
  AVE MARIA...
  BIG CORKSCREW ISLAND...
  IMMOKALEE...
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS FROM 45 TO 55 MPH...UP
TO NICKEL-SIZED HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION OF
THESE ARE POSSIBLE. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2643 8157 2646 8157 2647 8156 2653 8131
      2616 8126 2616 8150 2642 8158
TIME...MOT...LOC 1918Z 165DEG 13KT 2628 8141

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