Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
230 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE LOCAL AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TWO MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES.
A MID LATITUDE TROUGH ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND THE ATLANTIC LOW
LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO YIELD A
WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEING MORE FOCUS ACROSS INTERIOR AND
EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT
GRADUALLY NORTH WHILE THE ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS BRIEFLY WESTWARD
BY FRIDAY WITH A SHIFT IN THE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE PATTERN TO MORE
INLAND AREAS AND A RETURN OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING SHOWERS OVER
EASTERN AREAS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
APPROACH THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AT THIS TIME...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
A LARGE ENVELOPE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. MODELS BRING THIS
MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS ON
SATURDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SECOND STRONGER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE COULD MOVE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
LARGE UNCERTAINTY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FUTURE TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER A FEW MODELS LOCATE THIS SYSTEM OVER
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY TUE/WED. AND IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD HAVE ANY EFFECT OVER
THE LOCAL AREA. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITOR AS
TIME PROGRESSES.

&&

.MARINE...PLEASANT BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE AT LEAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE WEEKEND
AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WEST OF THE AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  89  78  89 / 10 20 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  89  79  89 / 10 20 20 30
MIAMI            79  91  77  90 / 10 20 20 30
NAPLES           76  91  75  91 / -  20 20 30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...47/RGH
AVIATION/RADAR...30/KOB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
405 AM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
012315-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
405 AM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTERIOR/EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, FOCUSED ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND TOWARDS THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, CONTAINING
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.

WIND: GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH IS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

HAIL: SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON.

FLOODING: SLOW STORMS MOVEMENT WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
STREET FLOODING AT ISOLATED LOCALES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING.

TEMPERATURES: MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES WILL REACH 100 TO 105 DEGREES,
HOTTEST OVER THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY. THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER
INDIVIDUAL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HIGH WIND, HAIL AND
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

GREGORIA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
338 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

FLZ073-074-173-012015-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE COUNTY FL INLAND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL METROPOLITAN
MIAMI DADE FL
338 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY

* UNTIL 415 PM EDT

* AT 333 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MIAMI SPRINGS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5
  MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
  MIAMI SPRINGS...
  MEDLEY...
  HIALEAH GARDENS...
  HIALEAH...
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS FROM 45 TO 55 MPH...UP
TO NICKEL-SIZED HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION OF
THESE ARE POSSIBLE. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2587 8014 2588 8015 2585 8016 2571 8030
      2577 8045 2595 8033 2595 8011 2591 8011
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 208DEG 5KT 2583 8031

10

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
416 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

FLZ073-074-173-174-012115-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE COUNTY FL FAR SOUTH MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL INLAND
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL METROPOLITAN MIAMI DADE FL
416 PM EDT WED AUG 1 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  MIAMI-DADE COUNTY

* UNTIL 515 PM EDT

* AT 412 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MIAMI-DADE COUNTY MOVING
  NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
  INTERSECTION KROME AND KENDALL DRIVE...
  THE HAMMOCKS...
  KENDALE LAKES...
  MICCOSUKEE RESORT...
  KENDALL...
  WESTCHESTER...
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS FROM 45 TO 55 MPH...UP
TO NICKEL-SIZED HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION OF
THESE ARE POSSIBLE. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2582 8011 2578 8015 2584 8014 2585 8015
      2588 8015 2582 8018 2575 8018 2572 8024
      2565 8026 2541 8046 2530 8065 2553 8086
      2574 8071 2589 8054 2595 8038 2595 8011
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 221DEG 12KT 2565 8050

10