Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
601 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012

.UPDATE...RAISED POPS ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS THROUGH 00Z TO
ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING CONVECTION WHICH WILL LIKELY REMAIN SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 517 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012/

AVIATION...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVER S FLA THROUGH
THE PERIOD, ALOFT AND TO THE SW OF THE AREA...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL PULL SOME MOISTURE OVER S FLA. VCSH POSSIBLE MIAMI DADE AND
BROWARD TERMINALS OVER NITE WITH VCTS FROM 15Z-18Z AS TSTMS DEVELOP
ALONG THE E COAST SEA BREEZE BUT MOVE WESTWARD INLAND. AT THIS
TIME KPBI MAY HAVE NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SURFACE WINDS SE-SSE 8
TO 12 KTS DECREASING AFT 00Z TO CALM OR LIGHT SE. AFTER 15Z
BECOMING SE 10 KTS. AT KAPF...VCSH UNTIL 02Z THEN VFR WITH CALM
WINDS. AFT 13Z SE WINDS < 8 KTS BECOMING AFT 17Z SW AROUND 10 KTS
AS W COAST SEA BREEZE DVLPS. VCTS AFT 20Z- 24Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...TUTT LOW OVER WESTERN CUBA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD. WATER VAPOR IMAGES
SHOWS MOISTURE ALOFT WRAPPING AROUND THIS LOW AND BEING ADVECTED
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF DAILY SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. LOCATION WILL
LARGELY DEPEND ON LOCAL SEA/LAKE BREEZES, BUT A MOSTLY EASTERLY
STEERING FLOW WILL TEND TO KEEP MOST ACTIVITY INLAND AND WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVER EASTERN AREAS NIGHTTIME AND EARLY
MORNINGS. A MID LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTHWARD
ACROSS SE U.S. AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST DEEP
LAYER FLOW BY WEDNESDAY, AND ALTHOUGH A DECREASE IN AVAILABLE
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED, ANY SHOWER/STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY
BE STEERED TOWARD THE EASTERN METRO AREAS.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH A DEEP
LAYER EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE LOCAL AREA. WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...A RETURN TO AFTERNOON SHWRS/STORM OVER
INTERIOR/WEST AND NIGHTTIME/EARLY MORNING SHOWERS OVER EASTERN
AREAS SHOULD BE EXPECTED.

MARINE...PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK WITH SFC WINDS AOB 15 KTS AND SEAS AOB 2 FEET.

FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  89  76  90 / 10 20 10 30
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  90  78  90 / 10 20 10 30
MIAMI            78  91  78  91 / 10 20 10 30
NAPLES           78  91  78  92 / 20 20 10 20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

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