Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
425 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

.UPDATE...YOU CAN VISIBLY SEE HAZE OUTSIDE TODAY WHICH LOOKS TO BE
SAHARAN AIR (DUST ORIGINATING FROM THE SAHARAN DESERT OF AFRICA).
THIS ALONG WITH OUR UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND GOOD SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE COULD INVIGORATE CONVECTION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE MORNING MIAMI SOUNDING DOES SHOW A CAP AT AROUND 22K
FEET...BUT CELLS IN MARTIN COUNTY ARE HAVING NO TROUBLE GETTING
ABOVE THIS. ALSO, THERE DOES LOOK TO BE SOME UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE. WATER VAPOR SHOWERS DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT AROUND AN
UPPER RIDGE TO OUR NORTH AND AN UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTHEAST. HRRR
SHOWS A LOT OF DEVELOPMENT INTERIOR OVER THE NEXT FEW HR.
INCREASED POPS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH HIGHEST POPS INTERIOR.
ADDED THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE INTERIOR TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT)...
THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
MID-WEEK PERIOD AND INDICATES DEEP LAYER RIDGING REMAINING AS THE
MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE IN CONTROL OF THE LOCAL WEATHER. THE LOW-
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH...WHICH WILL
ALLOW THE LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE RIDGE TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH PLENTY OF MID/UPPER DRY AIR COMBINED
WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS ANY DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES CONVERGING WILL KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY (MAINLY ISOLATED IN COVERAGE). THE BEST
CHANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SLIGHT ABOVE AVERAGE EACH DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
LOW TO MID 90S. HEAT INDICES MAY REACH THE 105 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE
OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF COLLIER COUNTY BY TUESDAY AND AROUND 100
DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS PERIOD. LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT INCREASING
PWAT VALUES AS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE
AREA. IF THIS VERIFIES...COULD SEE A PERIOD OR TWO WITH ENHANCED
SHOWER ACTIVITY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY-SATURDAY)...
SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS MAY AGAIN RETURN TO THE LOCAL AREA BY
FRIDAY...HOWEVER, MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE MAY SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY RESULTING
A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS DURING THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL. SLIGHTLY CHOPPIER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE AROUND THE COASTAL LOCATIONS AND ACROSS THE BAY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE
APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE AREA.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS AS RH VALUES REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  89  78  88 / 20 20 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  92  79  89 / 10 20 10 30
MIAMI            78  91  79  90 / 20 20 10 30
NAPLES           74  89  75  92 / 20 20 10 30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...85/AG
AVIATION/RADAR...30/KOB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
648 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
031100-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
648 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WESTERN INTERIOR THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE EVENING HOURS, WHERE A
FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE, PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE GULF COAST AND
THE REST OF THE INTERIOR THIS EVENING. FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ALSO
BE A CONCERN WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.

WIND: DAMAGING WINDS TO AROUND 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER GLADES, HENDRY AND COLLIER COUNTIES.

HAIL: LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
GLADES, HENDRY AND COLLIER COUNTIES.

FLOODING: MINOR URBAN FLOODING OR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER GLADES, HENDRY AND COLLIER COUNTIES THIS EVENING.

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES, AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE AT THE EAST COAST BEACHES
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

GREGORIA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
545 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

FLZ063-066-022215-
GLADES FL HENDRY FL
545 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN GLADES COUNTY
  NORTHWESTERN HENDRY COUNTY

* UNTIL 615 PM EDT

* AT 540 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LA BELLE...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
  RURAL NORTHWESTERN HENDRY COUNTY
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS FROM 45 TO 55 MPH...UP
TO NICKEL-SIZED HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION OF
THESE ARE POSSIBLE. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2688 8157 2690 8150 2665 8124 2655 8155
      2665 8157
TIME...MOT...LOC 2143Z 348DEG 5KT 2674 8147

AK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
600 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

FLZ066-070-022230-
HENDRY FL INLAND COLLIER COUNTY FL
600 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  WEST CENTRAL HENDRY COUNTY
  NORTH CENTRAL COLLIER COUNTY

* UNTIL 630 PM EDT

* AT 558 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FELDA...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
  FELDA...
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS FROM 45 TO 55
MPH...SMALL HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION OF THESE
ARE POSSIBLE. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER IN
FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE WINDS
CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED
SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM
PASSES.

LAT...LON 2643 8157 2669 8157 2673 8130 2639 8128
      2638 8159 2643 8159
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 006DEG 6KT 2654 8144

AK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
630 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

FLZ066-070-022315-
HENDRY FL INLAND COLLIER COUNTY FL
630 PM EDT MON JUL 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  WESTERN HENDRY COUNTY
  NORTH CENTRAL COLLIER COUNTY

* UNTIL 715 PM EDT

* AT 628 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES
  EAST OF FELDA TO HENDRY CORRECTIONAL I/A/P...AND MOVING WEST AT 10
  MPH.

* THE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT...
  RURAL CENTRAL HENDRY COUNTY
  RURAL WESTERN HENDRY COUNTY
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS FROM 45 TO 55 MPH...UP
TO NICKEL-SIZED HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION OF
THESE ARE POSSIBLE. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2671 8133 2626 8100 2612 8139 2650 8157
      2668 8157
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 126DEG 7KT 2656 8133 2635 8122

AK

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