Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
807 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

.UPDATE...TORNADO WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 2 PM FOR GLADES COUNTY.
AN OUTER BAND FROM T.S. DEBBY APPROACHING SW FLA COAST MAINLY AND
INTO THE GULF WATERS OFF OF COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES.
IR SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATED WARMING TOPS EARLIER HAVE NOW BEGUN TO
COOL AGAIN. ALL OF THIS OCCURRING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF DEBBY
AND THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON SPREADING FROM SW
TO NE ACROSS S FLA WITH THE EMPHASIS OF THE WEATHER IN THE NW 2/3RDS
OF THE CWA. HAVE UPPED POPS A BIT ESPECIALLY LAKE OKEE REGION AND W.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012/

DISCUSSION...MODELS FINALLY COMING MORE IN LINE TO THE FUTURE
EVOLUTION OF T.S. DEBBY BUT HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO THE GFS AND NAM
SOLUTIONS AS CURRENT CONDITIONS MATCH THEIR PARAMETERS CLOSER
ESPECIALLY WITH THE WIND SPEEDS FROM THE NAM. EVEN THE ECMWF HAS
BEGUN TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS SOLUTION. THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OF DEBBY
WHICH PLACES THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL FL WITH
S FL IN A TEMPORARY LULL. STILL, CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FIRING IN
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THIS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE NE. HOWEVER,
THE NAM AND THE SHORT TERM MODELS HRRR AND WRF DO NOT SHOW MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION TODAY BOTH SHOWING MOST OF THE BANDING
JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA. IN FACT THE MET GUIDANCE HAS VIRTUALLY NO
CHANCES FOR RAIN ALONG THE E CST. THAT MAY BE A LITTLE TOO
OPTIMISTIC. SO BASED ON ALL OF THIS, PLAN TO LOWER POPS BY A
CATEGORY BUT NO LOWER GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF DEBBY. THE OTHER
FACTOR IS THAT THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE SYSTEM STILL PLACES S FL
IN A QUADRANT FAVORABLE FOR STRONG CONVECTION SO ANY STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME QUITE ACTIVE AND POSSIBLY EVEN SEVERE
ESPECIALLY OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION INCLUDING THE NAPLES
AREA TO AROUND PALM BEACH COUNTY. THE OTHER BIG IMPACT THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL HAVE NOW ON S FL IS THAT IT IS NOW FCST TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF BEFORE MOVING INLAND IN
THE BIG BEND AREA SO THIS WILL MAINTAIN A PROLONGED S TO SW WIND
FLOW OVER THE REGION. THAT BEING SAID AND THE FACT THAT TIDES
ALONG THE GULF COAST ARE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL, THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE COAST
OF COLLIER COUNTY MAINLY SOUTH OF THE NAPLES AREA ALONG WITH AN
INCREASED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN
ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. AS DEBBY CHURNS OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF THROUGH TUESDAY, A CONTINUED FLOW OF TROPICAL AIR WILL
MAINTAIN ITS GRIP ON S FL BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE CONTINUOUS
BANDING WILL BE FARTHER TO OUR NORTH AND POPS WILL BE IN THE SCT
RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
DEBBY WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH AN UPSTREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH AND
BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NE BY THE END OF THIS WEEK WITH DRIER AIR
ALOFT MOVING OVER S FL AND GRIDS WILL REFLECT THIS TREND.

MARINE...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND HAS NOW DEVELOPED OVER THE
MARINE AREAS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 20 KT
IN ALL OTHER S FL WATERS SO SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY WEDNESDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS WITH PLENTY OF AMPLE TROPICAL MOISTURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  77  90  78 / 50 40 50 40
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  79  90  79 / 50 40 50 40
MIAMI            88  79  89  79 / 40 40 50 40
NAPLES           85  78  88  77 / 50 50 50 40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL
     COLLIER.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR BISCAYNE
     BAY-COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD
     BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-LAKE OKEECHOBEE-WATERS FROM DEERFIELD
     BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO THE
     TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET
     TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT
     20 NM-GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL
     EXTENDING FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
501 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
260200-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
501 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 2 PM FOR GLADES COUNTY...
...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE GULF COAST...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

TORNADOES: ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
TODAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WEST OF
NAPLES AND GLADES COUNTY.

COASTAL FLOODING: MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE WINDS IN THE 20 TO
25 KNOT RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO LARGE WEST AND SOUTHWEST SEAS ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS...MODERATE SURF AND WATER LEVELS ALREADY ELEVATED
AROUND 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE GULF COAST AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
TYPICALLY VULNERABLE SECTIONS OR LOW LYING ROADS NEAR THE COAST
EXTENDING SOUTHEAST FROM MARCO ISLAND TO EVERGLADES CITY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR FLOODING WILL OCCUR DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES...WHICH
ARE FORECAST AROUND 5 AM AND 5 PM THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG THE GULF
COAST FROM NAPLES TO EVERGLADES CITY.

THUNDERSTORMS: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE
PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL, AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH.

WIND: STRONG WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN FAST
MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

WAVES: SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 8 TO 11 FOOT RANGE WITH OCCASIONAL
HIGHER SEAS POSSIBLE OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS, WELL WEST OF
NAPLES.

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE GULF
COAST BEACHES, WITH A SLIGHT RISK ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA INTO TUESDAY AS TROPICAL
STORM DEBBY MOVES LITTLE THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE COASTAL FLOOD THREAT DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE
WINDS...LARGE SEAS AND MODERATE SURF ALONG THE GULF COAST AREAS
WILL REMAIN UP THROUGH TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLES AS INDICATED ABOVE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

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