Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1040 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE TODAY...

.UPDATE...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION
AS TROPICAL STORM DEBBY CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OVER THE GULF. THE
LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS. AT LEAST THREE DISCRETE CELLS
HAVE SHOWED CONSIDERABLE ROTATION OVER THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS THIS MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND WIND FIELD
WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS
AND TORNADOES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WHILE CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT OVERALL DESTABILIZATION, THE TRACK AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF
DEBBY WILL BRING AT LEAST WEAKLY ORGANIZED FEEDER BANDS THROUGH
THE AREA. ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD EASILY FORM WITH THE MORE
CELLULAR STORMS WITHIN THESE BANDS. IN ADDITION, A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
OF 50 TO 55 MPH. OVERALL, THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS ON TRACK,
WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 718 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012/

AVIATION... EXPECT THE CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH ELEVATED RAIN
CHANCES TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF CYCLE AND BEYOND AS
PLENTY OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH OVER THE LOCAL
AREA. PERIODS WITH SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE EXPECTED IN AND
AROUND THE AREAS OF SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AT
THIS TIME...EXPECT MOST OF THE COVERAGE TO REMAIN IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
STORM OR TWO THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING PERIOD. WINDS WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL REMAIN
GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE GULF COAST NEAR THE
APF TERMINAL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012/

DISCUSSION...MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO MAKE A HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN FORECAST. IT HAS BEEN A LONG TIME THAT THIS FORECASTER
CAN REMEMBER THAT THERE BEING SUCH LARGE DIFFERENCES ENTERING THE
SHORT TERM BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. BOTH MODELS ARE INSISTING
ON COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS TO THE EVOLUTION OF T.S. DEBBY
WITH THE ECMWF DRIFTING THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND THEN TURNING
TO THE WEST LATE TODAY OR EARLY MONDAY. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND
TAKES DEBBY TO THE NORTH AND STALLS IT OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF
AND THEN MOVES IT ACROSS N FL ON TUESDAY. THE GFS SOLUTION STILL
SEEMS MORE UNBELIEVABLE DUE TO THE FACT THAT BOTH MODELS AGREE
THAT A RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF DEBBY AS A LARGE MID
LEVEL TROUGH BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THIS WOULD STEER
DEBBY TO THE WEST. AT ANY RATE, HAVE CONTINUED THE FCST TREND AND
GOING WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND THE IMPACTS OF THIS SCENARIO
WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY
AND THEN BEGIN TO HAVE A LESSER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ALSO HAVE A THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG
TSRA AS OUTER BANDS OF DEBBY MOVE ONSHORE OF THE SW CST THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE HEAVIEST
ALONG THE COASTAL COLLIER COUNTY REGION WITH ONE TO THREE INCHES
POSSIBLE AND EVEN A LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNT UP TO FIVE INCHES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THERE IS A TEMPORARY LULL CURRENTLY WITH
JUST A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING ONSHORE NEAR NAPLES AND THIS
EXTENDS SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF WATERS. HOWEVER, IR AND WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE HEAVIER CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF
KEY AND THIS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA LATER THIS
MORNING.

MARINE...A SOUTHEAST WIND HAS INCREASED OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF
WATERS AND THESE WINDS WILL BE IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT THROUGH
MONDAY AND 15-20 KT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS AND
10-15 KT OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ADVISORY
LEVEL SEAS WILL PERSIST OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS THROUGH
MONDAY WITH EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENTS ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS WITH AMPLE TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  82  76  86  77 / 80 60 50 40
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  77  88  78 / 80 60 50 40
MIAMI            83  77  87  79 / 80 60 50 40
NAPLES           82  75  87  77 / 80 60 50 40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-GULF WATERS
     FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

UPDATE...14/MJB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
740 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
251030-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
740 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE TODAY...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE...
...DETERIORATING MARINE AND COASTAL CONDITIONS...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

TORNADOES: ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

WATERSPOUTS: ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

FLOODING: STREET FLOODING OR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS,
ESPECIALLY WITHIN URBAN LOCALES WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY WHERE
ANY HEAVY RAINFALL BECOMES CONCENTRATED.

THUNDERSTORMS: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE
PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL, AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH.

WIND: SUSTAINED WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE GULF
WATERS, WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. IN ADDITION,
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH COULD OCCUR AT ANY LOCATION WITH A
FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS.

WAVES: SEAS MAY EXCEED 9 FEET OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS, WELL
WEST OF NAPLES.

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
GULF COAST BEACHES, WITH A SLIGHT RISK ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE RAINFALL CHANCES UP THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS TROPICAL STORM DEBBY BEGINS TO TRACK
WEST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES AWAY FROM OUR LOCAL
AREA. A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

RIP CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK ALONG THE GULF COAST DUE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A
NORTHWEST SWELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, ALTHOUGH
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1025 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

FLZ067-071-072-241500-
INLAND BROWARD COUNTY FL INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY FL METRO BROWARD
COUNTY FL
1025 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY
  SOUTH CENTRAL PALM BEACH COUNTY

* UNTIL 1100 AM EDT

* AT 1022 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR EAST TOLL GATE ON ALLIGATOR ALLEY...AND
  MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
  EAST TOLL GATE ON ALLIGATOR ALLEY...
  INTERSECTION I-75 AND U.S. 27...
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. THESE WINDS
CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED
SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM
PASSES.

ALSO...DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR FUNNEL CLOUDS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

LAT...LON 2636 8068 2639 8033 2610 8043 2607 8056
TIME...MOT...LOC 1426Z 180DEG 12KT 2612 8047

GARCIA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1048 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

FLZ063-066-241515-
GLADES FL HENDRY FL
1048 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN GLADES COUNTY
  NORTHWESTERN HENDRY COUNTY

* UNTIL 1115 AM EDT

* AT 1044 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LA BELLE...AND MOVING
  NORTH AT 30 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
  LA BELLE...
  MUSE...
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. THESE WINDS
CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED
SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM
PASSES.

ALSO...THIS STORM IS DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
FUNNEL CLOUDS.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT FOR ADDITIONAL
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

LAT...LON 2697 8126 2662 8145 2664 8157 2703 8157
      2704 8146
TIME...MOT...LOC 1448Z 194DEG 26KT 2673 8152

GARCIA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1053 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

FLZ067-068-072-168-172-241545-
COASTAL BROWARD COUNTY FL COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY FL INLAND PALM
BEACH COUNTY FL METRO BROWARD COUNTY FL METRO PALM BEACH COUNTY FL
1053 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN BROWARD COUNTY
  SOUTHEASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY

* UNTIL 1145 AM EDT

* AT 1048 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BOCA RATON...AND MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
  WHISPER WALK...
  DELRAY BEACH...
  VILLAGE OF GOLF...
  LOXAHATCHEE NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE...
  LAKE WORTH...
  GREENACRES CITY...
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. THESE WINDS
CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED
SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM
PASSES.

ALSO...THIS STORM IS DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
FUNNEL CLOUDS.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT FOR ADDITIONAL
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

LAT...LON 2655 8004 2625 8008 2624 8019 2671 8032
      2674 8003 2663 8003 2660 8004 2659 8003
      2655 8003
TIME...MOT...LOC 1453Z 171DEG 27KT 2639 8014

GARCIA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1059 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

FLZ069-070-241545-
COASTAL COLLIER COUNTY FL INLAND COLLIER COUNTY FL
1059 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  WESTERN COLLIER COUNTY

* UNTIL 1145 AM EDT

* AT 1053 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
  SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN COLLIER
  COUNTY...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

* THE STORMS WILL AFFECT...
  MARCO ISLAND...
  MARCO ISLAND AIRPORT...
  BELLE MEADE...
  EAST NAPLES...
  WEST TOLL GATE ON ALLIGATOR ALLEY...
  GOLDEN GATE...
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. THESE WINDS
CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED
SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM
PASSES.

ALSO...THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT
FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

LAT...LON 2629 8182 2632 8145 2588 8153 2589 8155
      2589 8159 2590 8162 2589 8164 2590 8165
      2589 8168 2586 8166 2584 8168 2591 8174
      2595 8176 2597 8175 2601 8177
TIME...MOT...LOC 1457Z 179DEG 24KT 2590 8165

GARCIA

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