Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
754 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012

.AVIATION...

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THE SHORT TERM...TERMINAL KPBI
ASSIGNED VCTS THROUGH 03Z ALTHOUGH MOST ACTIVITY SO FAR HAS BEEN
JUST TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE...NEAR CONTINUOUS LIGHT
SHOWERS COULD PREVAIL ALL TERMINALS THE REMAINING EVENING HOURS
AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY. BRIEF PERIODS OF CEILINGS NEAR 1500 FT
AND VISIBILITIES TO NEAR 3SM POSSIBLE WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS THE REMAINING EVENING HOURS. A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN MOST FLORIDA
KEYS AND MOVING NEAR 20 KNOTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND COULD APPROACH
MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY NEAR 03Z. IF IT KEEPS ITS CURRENT MOMENTUM
IT COULD IMPACT SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THE LINE AND AMEND AS NECESSARY.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012/

..VERY WET WEEKEND POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG WITH BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS...

SHORT TERM...
LOW PRESSURE WAS STILL LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAS ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH
THROUGH THE CWA.

THE LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING THE LOW TO MOVE
SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS OF MEXICO THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND, PULLING THE TROUGH THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CWA. SO WILL CONTINUE THE LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE CWA FOR THIS WEEKEND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FOR SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THIS WEEKEND WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE HYDRO
SECTION BELOW. NHC IS ALSO GIVING A 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF
DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS ON
THIS LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON AN INCREASE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
WEEKEND...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTENING OVER THE
CWA FROM THE LOW OVER THE GULF AND THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE AT LEAST BREEZY TO WINDY OVER THE CWA THIS WEEKEND. THE WIND
SPEEDS OVER THE METRO AREAS COULD EVEN APPROACH WIND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST MODELS TO SEE IF A WIND ADVISORY WILL
BE NEEDED FOR THE METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THIS WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...
THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STILL SPLITTING ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE
LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z GFS IS STILL FORECASTING TO MOVE THE
LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS. THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z CANADIAN MODELS ARE STILL
MOVING THE LOW TO THE WEST TOWARDS TEXAS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT
THIS TIME...NHC IS LEADING ON THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z CANADIAN
MODELS ON MOVING THE LOW WESTWARD TOWARDS TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SO WE WILL FOLLOW THE NHC POSITION OF THE LOW MOVEMENT TO THE
WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE WIND FLOW OVER THE CWA
FROM THE SOUTHEAST DIRECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND ALLOW FOR THE
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND AWAY
FROM SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD GET BACK TO
MORE OF A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE SPEEDS WILL ALSO BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING THIS WEEKEND. THERE WILL ALSO BE A NORTHERLY SWELL OF
1 TO 2 FEET IN THE GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEAS TO BUILD TO 3 TO 6 FEET THIS WEEKEND
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE SEAS IN THE NEAR-SHORE GULF WATERS
WILL ALSO BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FEET, EXCEPT 6 TO 8 FEET IN THE
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS.

FIRE WEATHER...
THERE SHOULD BE NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FIRE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DUE TO THE VERY DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN
PLACE.

HYDROLOGY...
THE LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PWAT VALUES CLIMBING TO
2.3 TO 2.5 INCHES THIS WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS IS ABOVE
THE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF 2.25 INCHES AND CLOSE TO THE MAXIMUM
PWAT VALUE OF 2.7 FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SO, WE HAVE KEPT THE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING TO THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS TO 4 TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE
WEST COAST. WE WILL CONTINUE TO ISSUE A HYDROLOGICAL OUTLOOK
STATEMENT ON THE POTENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  82  78  84 / 60 80 70 60
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  83  79  86 / 70 80 70 60
MIAMI            74  83  79  85 / 70 80 70 60
NAPLES           74  82  79  86 / 80 80 70 60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...14/MJB
AVIATION/RADAR...60/BD

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