Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
901 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012

...WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...
...A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS A SHORT
WAVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVES EAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL
BE RAISE TONIGHT WITH NUMEROUS POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR AND
WEST COAST METRO AREAS TO HIGH IN SCATTERED CATEGORICAL POPS OVER
THE REST OF THE CWA.

THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW STRONG STORMS TONIGHT OVER THE CWA
ESPECIALLY WHERE THE LAND BREEZE SETS UP ALONG BOTH THE EAST AND
WEST COAST METRO AREAS. SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A FEW STRONG
STORMS IN THE EVENING HWO PRODUCT. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THE
STORMS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...GUSTY WINDS...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLAN.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 217 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NW GOFMEX FROM S TX WHICH IS GENERATING
NUMEROUS CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. AT THE SAME TIME, A
LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS LOCATED FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO
THE ATLANTIC WITH SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
PENINSULA/NORTHERN FL STRAITS AND A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS N FL. ALL OF THESE SYSTEMS ARE COMBINING TO PROVIDE
A DEEP WSW FLOW OVER S FL WITH ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING
PULLED FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHEAST GULF WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THERE WAS SOME MID LEVEL DRYING DEPICTED BY
THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING AND THIS ALLOWED FOR SOME CLEARING TO TAKE
PLACE WHICH IN TURN HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION
OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS AND WILL ALSO FAVOR STRONGER STORMS TO
POSSIBLY PRODUCE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE THINNING CLOUD LAYER
HAS ALSO HELPED SFC TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB AROUND 90 AND A SEA
BREEZE IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE E CST AND THIS WILL ALSO ONLY ADD
FUEL TO THE ALREADY ONGOING CONVECTION.

A VERY LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND AND THIS WILL KICK THE WESTERN MID LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF STATES WITH THE
CARIBBEAN RIDGE TO BEGIN BUILDING NORTHWARD. AS THESE TWO SYSTEMS
SHIFT NORTH, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO ALSO
SHIFT NORTH AND SOME DRYING IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS S FL OVER THE
WEEKEND AND A LOWERING TREND TO THE POPS WILL ENSUE. HOWEVER,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. AN EASTERLY FLOW IS
ALSO EXPECTED TO BEGIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY BE ENHANCED ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AS SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
COLLIDE. AN EVEN DRIER TREND IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA AND THICKNESSES ARE ON THE
RISE. TEMPERATURES THEREFORE WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE AND HIGHS ON
SUNDAY COULD APPROACH THE UPPER 90S OVER THE INTERIOR WEST AND
MAINLY LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER OR NEAR
THE REGION THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS LOUISIANA AND THE NORTHERN GULF.
SO LIGHT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE...AND SEA BREEZE
INTERACTION WILL DICTATE SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND INTERIOR. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE EASTERN GULF AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY...AND THEN REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
GULF AND NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEAK. THIS FEATURE
MAY HELP ENHANCE THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...POPS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR CLIMO AT LOW END CHANCE EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

MARINE...THE WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS TONIGHT THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND OVER ALL THE LOCAL WATERS...AS THEY SWING FROM A
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION TODAY TO A EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS
WEEKEND. THE SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN AT 4 FEET OR LESS OVER BOTH THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SO BOATING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GOOD OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.

FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  88  75  87 / 50 50 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  90  78  90 / 50 40 20 20
MIAMI            76  90  77  90 / 50 40 20 20
NAPLES           77  90  76  91 / 50 50 30 40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...30/KOB
AVIATION/RADAR...47/RGH

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
209 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012

FLZ063-066-090645-
GLADES FL HENDRY FL
209 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  WESTERN GLADES COUNTY
  NORTHWESTERN HENDRY COUNTY

* UNTIL 245 AM EDT

* AT 206 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTH OF MUSE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
  25 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
  MUSE...
  LA BELLE...
  ORTONA...
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS FROM 45 TO 55 MPH...UP
TO NICKEL-SIZED HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION OF
THESE ARE POSSIBLE. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2670 8123 2669 8156 2695 8156 2704 8139
      2704 8128 2710 8127 2712 8124
TIME...MOT...LOC 0608Z 247DEG 20KT 2677 8152

JR