Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
320 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012

.DISCUSSION...LOOKING AT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY THE
NAM, GFS AND ECMWF ARE VERY SIMILAR IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WITH FCST SOUNDINGS NEARLY IDENTICAL. HAVING STATED THAT,
THE NAM STILL SEEMS TO BE SUFFERING FROM ITS TYPICAL MESOSCALE
BIAS WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER POPS FROM DAY TO DAY. ONE INTERESTING
NOTE TOO IS THAT THE HRRR WHICH IS A NORMALLY VERY USEFUL SHORT
TERM MODEL HAS APPEARED TO HAVE INITIALIZED BADLY THIS EVENING AND
SHOWS A LARGE FLARE UP OF CONVECTION ALONG THE W CST JUST NORTH OF
APF AND THEN EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE LAKE OKEE REGION AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A VERY WEAK MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GOFMEX AT THIS TIME, THIS
SCENARIO WOULD APPEAR HIGHLY UNLIKELY GIVEN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
FACTORS OF THAT TYPE OF AN EVENT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
THEREFORE DO NOT PLACE MUCH EMPHASIS ON ITS SOLUTION FOR TODAY.
THERE IS A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT COVERS THE EASTERN HALF THE
COUNTRY AT THIS TIME AND THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH
FRIDAY. AT THE SFC, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHERN GEORGIA WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK KEEPING A SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA AND THE FL STRAITS. THESE
FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO FAVOR A SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW AND A
CONTINUING DESTABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE FOR S FL WITH
CONVECTION TENDING TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND MOVE TOWARDS THE E CST METRO REGION IN THE AFTERNOON
PARTICULARLY BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES. ABOUT THE ONLY
DIFFERENCE IN THE MAIN THREE MODELS IS ON FRIDAY WHERE THE 00Z GFS
AND THE 12Z ECMWF SHOW THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY NEAR LAKE OKEE BY
LATE FRIDAY AND THE NAM KEEPS IT WELL NORTH OF THE LAKE THROUGH
THE DAY. GIVE THESE DIFFERENCES, NOT READY TO JUMP ON THE HIGHER
POPS FOR FRIDAY SHOWN BY THE ECMWF AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SCT
COVERAGE.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FOR SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE
MODELS INDICATE THE DISSIPATING FRONT WILL BE OVER S FL ON
SATURDAY WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATING SCT POPS. FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY HOWEVER, THE SOLUTIONS ARE NOT QUITE SO
APPARENT. BOTH MODELS SHOW A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND THEN THE GFS MOVES
THE TROUGH INTO THE NORTH FLORIDA MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF LIFTS THE TROUGH NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WOULD
TEND TO GIVE S FL A QUITE DIFFERENT WX PATTERN WITH THE GFS
PAINTING A WETTER PICTURE AND THE ECMWF SHOWING A DRYING PATTERN.
SO WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE ONLY SCT ACTIVITY UNTIL THERE IS A
MORE CONSISTENT SOLUTION TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK WITH FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS. THERE IS
AN INDICATION OF A SHORT FUSED WIND SURGE TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT
FLOW BRIEFLY STRENGTHENS BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
HEIGHTS. THE FLOW WILL SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKEN TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AS
THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. THERE WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  87  76  87  74 / 30 30 40 40
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  79  88  76 / 20 20 40 40
MIAMI            88  79  89  76 / 20 20 40 40
NAPLES           86  76  86  75 / 20 20 30 30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...30/KOB
AVIATION/RADAR...14/MJB

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
729 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012

FLZ073-074-061215-
INLAND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL METROPOLITAN MIAMI DADE FL
729 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTH CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY

* UNTIL 815 AM EDT

* AT 728 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MICCOSUKEE RESORT...AND MOVING NORTH AT 25
  MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
  MICCOSUKEE RESORT...
  DORAL...
  MEDLEY...
  PENNSUCO...
  MIAMI LAKES...
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. THESE WINDS
CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED
SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM
PASSES.

ALSO...THIS STORM IS DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
FUNNEL CLOUDS.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT FOR ADDITIONAL
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

LAT...LON 2595 8070 2595 8028 2564 8043 2565 8066
TIME...MOT...LOC 1129Z 196DEG 21KT 2575 8053

BAXTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
733 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012

FLZ073-074-173-174-061215-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE COUNTY FL FAR SOUTH MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL INLAND
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL METROPOLITAN MIAMI DADE FL
733 AM EDT WED JUN 6 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEAST MIAMI-DADE COUNTY

* UNTIL 815 AM EDT

* AT 728 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
  A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FLORIDA CITY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
  20 TO 25  MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
  FLORIDA CITY...
  HOMESTEAD...
  REDLAND...
  NARANJA...
  PRINCETON...
  GOULDS...
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS FROM 45 TO 55 MPH...UP
TO NICKEL-SIZED HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION OF
THESE ARE POSSIBLE. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

ALSO...THIS STORM IS DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR FUNNEL CLOUDS.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT FOR ADDITIONAL
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

LAT...LON 2561 8028 2561 8030 2559 8031 2557 8030
      2553 8031 2553 8032 2547 8033 2538 8039
      2539 8061 2565 8058 2564 8027
TIME...MOT...LOC 1132Z 206DEG 13KT 2543 8047

BAXTER