Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
231 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT)...
THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE
CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND GENERALLY REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF
EVENINGS...MOST OF THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SETUP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA AND BEGIN TO IMPACT THE EAST COAST AND METRO
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THE
STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP THROUGH THIS TIME WILL BE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...LOCALIZED FLOODING...GUSTY WINDS FROM 40-55 MPH AND
SMALL HAIL. THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF MODEL REFLECTIVITIES LINE UP
WELL WITH THIS PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH THE MID-EVENING HOURS
BEFORE TRENDING DOWN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS BERYL CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST
TO THE CAROLINA COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
REGION MAINTAINING A BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. AT
THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE
LOWER-LEVELS. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH...DAYTIME HEATING
AND SUFFICIENT SURFACED BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. WITH THE PRIMARY FLOW THROUGH
THE DEEP LAYER REMAINING OUT OF THE SW...EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO BECOME CONCENTRATED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE LOCAL AREA EACH DAY.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...ONE DIFFERENCE TO NOTE FOR THIS PERIOD
IS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SPREADING
NORTH ACROSS THE KEYS AND THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS INCREASE
IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ONLY
ENHANCE THE RAINFALL COVERAGE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD THURSDAY. MODEL PWAT VALUES
REFLECT THIS PATTERN AND GENERALLY INDICATE A NORTH TO SOUTH
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA OR FROM THE LAKE TO THE KEYS WITH THE
HIGHER PWAT VALUES REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THIS AREA (UP
TO 2.2 INCHES). AS A RESULT...WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE THE
RAINFALL CHANCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER THESE
SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE THE BEST SOURCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY-WEEKEND)...
MODELS REMAIN PERSISTENT INTO THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INDICATE THE
PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SPREADING FARTHER NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH
INTO THE LOCAL AREA WILL TRANSLATE TO INCREASING RAINFALL CHANCES
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST HPC 5 DAY PRECIP FORECAST INDICATES
TOTALS REACHING THE 2-3 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
PENINSULA. AS TYPICALLY OBSERVED...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WHERE THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY BECOMES CONCENTRATED.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
REMAINING POSSIBLE EACH DAY. LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES WILL TRANSLATE TO CHOPPIER CONDITIONS EACH DAY...MAINLY
NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE SPREADING NORTH OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL KEEP
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL RED FLAG LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  89  74  88 / 20 40 20 40
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  90  76  88 / 20 40 20 50
MIAMI            75  90  75  89 / 20 40 20 50
NAPLES           74  89  74  89 / 10 20 20 40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...85/AG
AVIATION/RADAR...54/BNB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
930 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

AMZ610-630-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-300200-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-
METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-
METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-
COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-
FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
930 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE INTERIOR AND EASTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY INTERIOR
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS, HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

RIP CURRENTS: SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF COAST BEACHES. FOR THE
ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES, SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

WIND: THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING,
MAINLY OVER INTERIOR AND EASTERN SECTIONS.

HAIL: THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
WITH THE MAIN RISK BEING LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS, SMALL
HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION: WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER INDIVIDUAL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
HIGH WIND, HAIL AND FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

BAXTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1241 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

FLZ073-074-173-291745-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE COUNTY FL INLAND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL METROPOLITAN
MIAMI DADE FL
1241 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY

* UNTIL 145 PM EDT

* AT 1238 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES
  NORTH OF MICCOSUKEE RESORT TO INTERSECTION KROME AND KENDALL DRIVE
  TO 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF INTERSECTION KROME AND KENDALL DRIVE...AND
  MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT...
  MICCOSUKEE RESORT...
  INTERSECTION KROME AND KENDALL DRIVE...
  THE HAMMOCKS...
  PENNSUCO...
  DORAL...
  HIALEAH GARDENS...
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. THESE WINDS
CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED
SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM
PASSES.

ALSO...THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
FUNNEL CLOUDS.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT FOR ADDITIONAL
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

LAT...LON 2594 8026 2583 8027 2567 8029 2556 8063
      2569 8059 2593 8053
TIME...MOT...LOC 1641Z 245DEG 13KT 2583 8049 2573 8050
          2565 8054

BAXTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
121 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

FLZ073-074-173-291745-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE COUNTY FL INLAND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL METROPOLITAN
MIAMI DADE FL
121 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  EAST METRO CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY

* UNTIL 145 PM EDT

* AT 117 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
  A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WEST KENDALL...AND MOVING EAST AT 10
  TO 15 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
  WEST KENDALL...
  SWEETWATER...
  CUTLER RIDGE...
  WESTCHESTER...
  KENDALL...
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. THESE WINDS
CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED
SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM
PASSES.

ALSO...THESE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR FUNNEL CLOUDS.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT FOR ADDITIONAL
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

LAT...LON 2567 8015 2566 8016 2568 8018 2574 8017
      2572 8024 2565 8026 2559 8031 2557 8029
      2554 8017 2560 8051 2579 8047 2582 8018
      2576 8018 2575 8016 2582 8015 2583 8012
TIME...MOT...LOC 1721Z 273DEG 10KT 2569 8038

BAXTER

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
457 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

FLZ073-074-173-292130-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE COUNTY FL INLAND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL METROPOLITAN
MIAMI DADE FL
457 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  EAST CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY

* UNTIL 530 PM EDT

* AT 455 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PERRINE...AND MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
  PERRINE...
  PINECREST...
  SOUTH MIAMI...
  UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI...
  CORAL GABLES...
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2567 8015 2566 8016 2568 8018 2574 8017
      2572 8024 2565 8026 2559 8031 2557 8029
      2553 8016 2553 8031 2553 8042 2575 8042
      2576 8018 2575 8016 2576 8012
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 255DEG 7KT 2563 8030

AK