Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
239 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

.DISCUSSION...TROPICAL STORM BERYL CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST AND
WILL LIKELY MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT ALONG THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST. AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES LOCALLY, THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY. WHILE THE MOST ORGANIZED AND HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH, SOME LOW LEVEL FORCING
WILL BE PROVIDED BY MESO-SCALE EFFECTS, DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARIES, AND SEA/LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY AND THIS EVENING, THE NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED
ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, ALTHOUGH THE EXPECTED
EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTION ALONG WITH THE PREVAILING STEERING
FLOW WILL ULTIMATELY FAVOR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THE
IMMEDIATE WEST COAST SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. A FEW STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG AND WITH SOME DRY AIR ALOFT, WIND GUSTS ARE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN. A FEW CLOUD CONVERGENCE BANDS ON THE OUTER
PERIPHERY OF BERYL MAY ALSO AID IN CONVECTION INITIATION,
PARTICULARLY IN THE LAKE REGION. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT, WE DO
EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY 04Z.

AS BERYL CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST ON MONDAY, THE LOCAL LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY. A FEW MODEL
SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT A RIBBON OF DRIER AIR MAY FORM TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF BERYL AND OVERSPREAD THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. BUT, IT STILL APPEARS THAT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND
FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF ACTIVITY.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT, THE REMNANTS OF BERYL WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST AND BACK INTO THE
ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE, A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
DEEPEN OVER THE REGION, RESULTING IN PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS A RESULT, DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT OR ABOVE CLIMO. A
SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO WORK ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE THURSDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON
FRIDAY, INDUCING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AND PUSH NORTHEAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ITS ASSOCIATED WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
COULD PASS THROUGH AT LEAST NORTHERN FLORIDA. INTERESTINGLY, THE
LATEST GFS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE FORMING JUST EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
BY EARLY FRIDAY AND THEN PUSHES IT NORTHEAST INTO THE OPEN
ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. OVERALL, THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE RATHER
UNSETTLED WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES AND ALSO
ALONG THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE WILL MOVE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 20
TO 25 MPH. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS...FROM KFLL SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 18 AND 20Z. SO LEFT VCTS
STARTING AT 18Z FOR ALL EAST COAST TERMINALS THROUGH 02-04Z. THE
GULF COAST SEA BREEZE HAS ALREADY PUSHED THROUGH KAPF WITH
WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED THERE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WAS PUSHING INLAND ACROSS MIAMI DADE
COUNTY...BUT THE SEA BREEZE REMAINED CLOSER TO THE COAST FURTHER
NORTH...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS PALM BEACH COUNTY. SO SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE EAST
COAST TERMINALS. AS BERYL MOVES INLAND TONIGHT...WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT BUT REMAIN OR TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST
AT THE EAST COAST TERMINALS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY LEAD TO
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS...AND EVEN
TOWARDS KAPF AS WINDS OVER THE WATER REMAIN SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY. FOR NOW...LEFT OUT MENTION OF SHOWERS UNTIL 10-14Z
FOR ALL AREAS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS
BY MID MORNING FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES...WITH A SOUTHERLY
WIND AT KAPF.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS TO NEAR 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING,
MAINLY IN THE GULF STREAM WATERS TO THE EAST OF PALM BEACH
COUNTY. THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT THE NNE SWELL WILL PEAK AT 3-4 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. SOME
INCREASED SURF, ALONG WITH THE SWELL, WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE PALM BEACHES THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY,
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO MAJOR CONCERNS AS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  87  75  88 / 40 50 30 40
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  88  77  88 / 40 50 30 40
MIAMI            75  88  75  88 / 30 40 30 40
NAPLES           73  86  74  88 / 30 40 30 30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL PALM
     BEACH.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...14/MJB
AVIATION/RADAR...84/AK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
229 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

AMZ610-630-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-280930-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-
METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-
METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-
COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-
FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
229 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES OF PALM BEACH COUNTY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY INTERIOR AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

WIND: THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING,
MAINLY OVER INTERIOR AND EASTERN SECTIONS.

HAIL: THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SMALL HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE.

WATERSPOUTS: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF WATERSPOUTS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY.

RIP CURRENTS: A SMALL TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST SWELL
GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL AFFECT THE ATLANTIC WATERS
OFF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SWELL WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE BEACHES OF
PALM BEACH COUNTY RESULTING IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.
SMALLER SWELLS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE BEACHES OF BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH WILL ALSO LEAD TO A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF COAST BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
WITH THE MAIN RISK BEING LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS, AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER
INDIVIDUAL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HIGH WIND, AND
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

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