Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
244 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. A SERIES
OF WEAK PERTURBATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AROUND THE BASE OF
THIS TROUGH AND ACROSS THE PENINSULA. THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THIS PERIOD. DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED
WITH DEVELOPING SEA/LAKE BREEZES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED
AFTERNOON STORMS EACH DAY. A NORTHWEST TO WEST STEERING FLOW WILL
ALSO RESULT IN THE STORMS DEVELOPING MOSTLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS
AND MOVING TOWARD THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SHOULD BEGIN TO FILL UP AND BE REPLACED BY A BUILDING DEEP LAYER
RIDGE. HOWEVER...LONG RANGE GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY GFS SHOWS A
DISTURBANCE IN THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE MOVING ACROSS S. FLORIDA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
AT THIS TIME WL KEEP SCT SHWRS/TSTMS IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MOSTLY EAST
AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A SMALL NE SWELL
SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM SUNDAY ON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  84  73  83 / 10 30 30 30
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  84  73  83 / 20 40 30 30
MIAMI            73  84  73  83 / 20 50 30 30
NAPLES           72  86  71  86 / 10 30 30 30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...47/RGH
AVIATION/RADAR...57/DG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1021 AM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012

AMZ610-630-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-190530-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-
METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-
METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-
COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-
FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
1021 AM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING INTERIOR/EAST COAST...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING, WITH THE FOCUS BEING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST
METROPOLITAN AREAS. GIVEN SUNSHINE, MORE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED
WITH BETTER SURFACE HEATING AND COLDER AIR ALOFT TODAY, A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, STRONG WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINS. ALSO, A
BRIEF TORNADO JUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.

WIND: WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST.

HAIL: LARGE HAIL TO AROUND QUARTER SIZE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST.

TORNADOES: A BRIEF TORNADO JUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

FLOODING: LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, POSSIBLY RESULTING
IN ISOLATED STREET FLOODING AND FLOODING OF POORLY DRAINED
LOCALES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST DAILY WITH
LIGHTNING AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS BEING THE PRIMARY RISKS AT
THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER
INDIVIDUAL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HIGH WIND, HAIL AND
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

GREGORIA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
126 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012

FLZ073-074-173-181815-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE COUNTY FL INLAND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FL METROPOLITAN
MIAMI DADE FL
126 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY

* UNTIL 215 PM EDT

* AT 124 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR INTERSECTION KROME AND KENDALL DRIVE...AND
  MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
  INTERSECTION KROME AND KENDALL DRIVE...
  THE HAMMOCKS...
  WEST KENDALL...
  KENDALL...
  SOUTH MIAMI...
  UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI...
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS FROM TO 45 MPH...SMALL
HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION OF THESE ARE
POSSIBLE. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER IN
FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE WINDS
CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED
SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM
PASSES.

LAT...LON 2564 8026 2560 8054 2568 8057 2579 8030
      2565 8026
TIME...MOT...LOC 1726Z 251DEG 16KT 2565 8049

MJB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
146 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012

FLZ067-068-072-168-172-181815-
COASTAL BROWARD COUNTY FL COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY FL INLAND PALM
BEACH COUNTY FL METRO BROWARD COUNTY FL METRO PALM BEACH COUNTY FL
146 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN BROWARD COUNTY
  SOUTHEASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY

* UNTIL 215 PM EDT

* AT 143 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BOCA RATON...AND MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
  DEERFIELD BEACH...
  BOCA RATON...
  DELRAY BEACH...
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS FROM 45 TO 55 MPH...UP
TO NICKEL-SIZED HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION OF
THESE ARE POSSIBLE. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT FOR ADDITIONAL
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

LAT...LON 2655 8004 2647 8005 2643 8005 2640 8006
      2637 8006 2627 8008 2625 8017 2658 8034
      2658 8003 2655 8003
TIME...MOT...LOC 1746Z 252DEG 11KT 2635 8012

GREGORIA

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
244 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012

FLZ070-071-073-181930-
INLAND BROWARD COUNTY FL INLAND COLLIER COUNTY FL INLAND MIAMI-DADE
COUNTY FL
244 PM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN RURAL BROWARD COUNTY
  NORTHWESTERN RURAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY
  EAST CENTRAL RURAL COLLIER COUNTY

* UNTIL 330 PM EDT

* AT 239 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF BIG CYPRESS NATIONAL
  PRESERVE...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. MERGING STORM OUTFLOW
  BOUNDARIES COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
  ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA WITHIN THE NEXT HALF HOUR.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
  RURAL EASTERN COLLIER COUNTY
  RURAL SOUTHWESTERN BROWARD COUNTY
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS FROM 45 TO 55 MPH...UP
TO NICKEL-SIZED HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION OF
THESE ARE POSSIBLE. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2616 8064 2586 8065 2589 8111 2616 8109
TIME...MOT...LOC 1843Z 271DEG 14KT 2605 8101

GREGORIA