Special Marine Warning 37, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
215 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2012

...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVER S FLA THIS WEEKEND...
...TWO ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...

AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE RKY MTN CHAIN INTO S CANADA ALLOWING
A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TO PLUNGE INTO THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OFF OF THE GULF
COAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE
SE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BEFORE LIFTING TO THE NE SATURDAY EVENING
AND CROSSING N FLA SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN NE ALONG THE SE U.S.
COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DIVING SE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ABSORBS THE E COAST LOW INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE E OHIO RIVER VALLEY THAT MOVES NORTHWARD INTO S CANADA.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP...THE S FLA AREA WILL BE UNDER AN INCREASING
AND BECOMING DIVERGENT SW WIND FLOW ALOFT WITH EMBEDDED IMPULSES
GENERATING CONVECTION. THE DIURNAL CONVECTION TODAY WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING HOURS MAINLY NE BUT DEVELOPING ACTIVITY OVER THE S
CENTRAL GULF WILL SPREAD NE AND ONTO THE W COAST LATE TONIGHT AND
SPREAD ACROSS S FLA TO THE E COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. ACTIVITY
COULD GET ACTIVE ESPECIALLY ON THE W COAST BUT WEAKEN SOME UPON
REACHING THE E COAST. WITH CLOUD COVER AND A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE EARLY SATURDAY...HEAVY CONVECTION MAY BE LIMITED DURING
THE DAY BUT A LITTLE HEATING IN THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE ( BECOMING 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ) WITH
POSSIBLE LAKE/SEA BREEZES...SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN AGAIN
BE EXPECTED. WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE
...POSSIBLE TRAINING OF ECHOES...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...WILL NOT BE
OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY W. LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT....IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST IMPULSE WILL MOVE
OVER S FLA. STRONG STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF AND
ACROSS S FLA WITH EVEN SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WINDS BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. DECREASING CONVECTION EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH ALL
ACTIVITY ENDING SUNDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS AS THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN WAFFLING ON THE TIMING BUT THIS IS THE CURRENT THINKING.
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS IN SOUTH FLORIDA ARE URGED TO KEEP ABREAST OF
THE LOCAL FORECAST AS THIS WEATHER SITUATION CONTINUES TO UNFOLD.

.EXTENDED PERIOD...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A DRY NW WIND FLOW WILL
BE OVER S FLA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
MAX/MIN TEMPS A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS THEN A SLOW
WARMING REND TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&
.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS REALLY BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW/FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS INCREASING ABOVE
ADVISORY CRITERIA POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE INCREAS
-ING SW WIND FLOW WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN THE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AND ROUGH SURF ALONG THE WEST COAST OF S FLA BEGINNING AS
EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE W
COAST OF S FLA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WATER LEVELS MAY REACH 1 TO 2
FT ABOVE THE REGULAR HIGH TIDE FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ANYWHERE FROM MARCO ISLAND TO EVERGLADES CITY. ANY
AREAS TYPICALLY VULNERABLE TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AS THIS GULF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS AND TRACKS EAST OVER THE FL PENINSULA.

&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME BUT MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS S FLA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RH FALLING
AT OR BELOW 35%.

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  81  70  85 / 40 80 70 50
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  82  71  86 / 40 80 70 50
MIAMI            72  83  70  85 / 40 80 70 50
NAPLES           68  82  69  81 / 50 80 70 50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...15/JR
AVIATION/RADAR...84/AK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
456 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2012

AMZ610-630-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-210400-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-
METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-
METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-
COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-
FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
456 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2012

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA. LATE
TONIGHT, AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE REGION. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM ANY
STORMS WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN, AND GUSTY WINDS.

WATERSPOUTS: INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF
WATERS LATE TONIGHT ALONG WITH FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES WILL LEAD
TO A SLIGHT RISK OF WATERSPOUTS OFF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST.

WIND: ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CREATE A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES.

FLOODING: ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVY SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A STRONG DEVELOPING COLD FRONT MAY
OCCUR ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
FORECAST, CONDITIONS COULD BE MOST FAVORABLE LATER ON SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME, ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADOES, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL. FORECAST DETAILS ON THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE FURTHER REFINED, SO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECAST UPDATES.

MARINE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DETERIORATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS EARLY
AS SATURDAY EVENING WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY BY
EARLY SUNDAY AS WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE ACROSS LOCAL GULF AND
ATLANTIC WATERS.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT ALONG THE GULF COASTAL AREAS FROM MARCO ISLAND TO EVERGLADES
CITY AS WATER LEVEL REACH BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET ABOVE REGULAR HIGH
TIDE.

THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND ON BOTH THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST BEACHES AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION: WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER INDIVIDUAL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
HIGH WIND AND FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE IN MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

MOLLEDA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
527 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     HAIL             JUPITER                 26.93N 80.10W
04/20/2012  E0.25 INCH       PALM BEACH         FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED PEA SIZED HAIL AND WINDS TO AT LEAST 50
            MPH ALONG BEACH IN JUPITER.

&&

MOLLEDA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
536 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2012

FLZ067-202215-
INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY FL
536 PM EDT FRI APR 20 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL RURAL PALM BEACH COUNTY

* UNTIL 615 PM EDT

* AT 531 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LION COUNTRY SAFARI...AND
  MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
  RURAL CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PALM BEACH COUNTY.

FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS FROM 45 TO 55 MPH...UP
TO NICKEL-SIZED HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION OF
THESE ARE POSSIBLE. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

THIS STORM IS SHOWING ROTATION. REMAIN ALERT FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

LAT...LON 2667 8033 2640 8025 2635 8064 2660 8068
TIME...MOT...LOC 2135Z 003DEG 10KT 2655 8044

GREGORIA

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