Special Marine Warning 365, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
242 PM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

.DISCUSSION...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH IS ROTATING AT THE BASE OF A LARGER SCALE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND ALSO SANDWICHED BETWEEN A STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
ATLANTIC NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK RIDGE
EXTENDS OVER NORTH FLORIDA WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL EAST WIND FLOW
ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS ALONG WITH THE TROUGH OVERHEAD HAS ALSO
GENERATED A VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW WITH AN EAST FLOW LESS THAN 10
KNOTS BELOW 10K FEET AND NEARLY CALM ABOVE THAT LEVEL. THUS, STORM
MOTION WILL BE DRIVEN BY SEA BREEZES FOLLOWED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SOMEWHAT IMPRESSIVE
(ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA STANDARDS) WITH 50H TEMP OF -10
WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY BELOW THE AVERAGE FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. ALL OF
THIS WILL LEAD FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORT LIVED SEVERE BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH POSSIBLE LOCALIZED URBAN TYPE FLOODING
WITH VERY SATURATED GROUNDS FROM SEVERAL WEEKS OF ABOVE NORMAL
RAINFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO REGION.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO ZONAL FLOW BY SUNDAY. LATE IN THE WEEKEND,
A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
STATES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOUTH FLORIDA WITH A DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WITH A CONTINUATION OF HIGH PWAT'S AND
INSTABILITY. CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE AT LEAST HIGH END SCATTERED AND
POSSIBLY NUMEROUS FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL DAYS OF OCTOBER. ANOTHER
REASON FOR KEEPING ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS FLORIDA WILL BE A WEAK COLD
FRONT SAGGING SOUTH DOWN THE PENINSULA NEXT WEEK RESULTING FROM THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL NORTH OF THE MARINE AREAS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
STORMS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WINDS WILL SHIFT
TOWARD THE SOUTH AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND TRACKS EAST TO NORTHEAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS WITH RH VALUES WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  87  77  88 / 20 20 20 40
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  86  77  88 / 20 20 20 40
MIAMI            77  88  77  89 / 20 20 20 50
NAPLES           75  89  76  89 / 20 20 20 40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...30/KOB
AVIATION/RADAR...57/DG

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
309 PM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

FLZ067-282000-
INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY FL
309 PM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN PALM
BEACH COUNTY...FOR FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS FROM
45 TO 55 MPH...UP TO NICKEL-SIZED HAIL...

* UNTIL 400 PM EDT

* AT 308 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
  A DEVELOPING LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
  FROM OKEELANTA TO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LOXAHATCHEE NATIONAL
  WILDLIFE REFUGE...AND MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

* THE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT...
  OKEELANTA...
  US 27...
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS FROM 45 TO 55 MPH...UP
TO NICKEL-SIZED HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION OF
THESE ARE POSSIBLE. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT FOR ADDITIONAL
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

LAT...LON 2633 8037 2634 8042 2652 8089 2654 8089
      2677 8068 2661 8024
TIME...MOT...LOC 1909Z 039DEG 7KT 2663 8072 2645 8034

BAXTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
311 PM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

FLZ071-072-074-281945-
INLAND BROWARD COUNTY FL METRO BROWARD COUNTY FL METROPOLITAN MIAMI
DADE FL
311 PM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN BROWARD
COUNTY...NORTHEASTERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...FOR FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS FROM 45 TO 55 MPH...UP TO NICKEL-SIZED
HAIL...

* UNTIL 345 PM EDT

* AT 308 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM NEAR SOUTHWEST RANCHES...AND
  MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
  SOUTHWEST RANCHES...
  PEMBROKE PINES...
  MIRAMAR...
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS FROM 45 TO 55 MPH...UP
TO NICKEL-SIZED HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION OF
THESE ARE POSSIBLE. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT FOR ADDITIONAL
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

LAT...LON 2593 8037 2596 8034 2595 8050 2603 8057
      2609 8031 2601 8025
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 058DEG 9KT 2603 8033

GREGORIA

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