Special Marine Warning 348, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
233 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS
BEEN PARKED ACROSS THE NRN BAHAMAS WILL FINALLY START TO MOVE
NORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY FILL. THIS WILL ALLOW SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND THEREFORE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL BE DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LOCAL FACTORS SUCH AS
DIURNAL HEATING AND SEA BREEZES. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
GULF OF MEX WILL ALSO TEND TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD PRECIP BY WAY OF
SUBSIDENCE. TEPERATUREWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED,
HOWEVER...LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES FROM
REACHING THE TRIPLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NHC CONTINUES TO MONITOR AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEX FOR POSSIBLE
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAY...HOWEVER, LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT
A MID LATITUDE TROUGH SHOULD DIG SOUTHWARD PUSHING A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE GOM AND PUSHING THIS
DISTURBANCE NEWD ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE PARENT TROUGH MOVING
RAPIDLY EASTWARD AND LEAVING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LYING E-W ACROSS
N-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA UNTIL ANOTHER ENERGY IMPULSE
PUSHES IT TO SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY
RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL NORTHEASTERLY SWELL, GENERATED BY LESLIE, WL
BEGIN TO REACH THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF PALM BEACH COUNTY TONIGHT
AND GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. OTHERWISE...FAIRLY BENIGN MARINE
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS AT LEAST THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  89  75  90 / 20 30 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  89  78  90 / 20 20 20 30
MIAMI            76  90  76  90 / 20 20 20 20
NAPLES           74  88  75  90 / 20 30 20 20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...47/RGH
AVIATION/RADAR...10/CD

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
320 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

FLZ067-071-061945-
INLAND BROWARD COUNTY FL INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY FL
320 PM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN BROWARD
COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY...FOR FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...

* UNTIL 345 PM EDT

* AT 317 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HOLEY LAND WILDLIFE
  MANAGEMENT AREA...AND MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
  HOLEY LAND WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA...
  OKEELANTA...
  AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. THESE
WINDS CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 2672 8054 2633 8038 2620 8078 2659 8086
TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 257DEG 16KT 2639 8074

AK

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