Flood Watch 7, NWS Miami, FL

482 
WGUS62 KMFL 232116
FFAMFL

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
516 PM EDT SUN SEP 23 2012


FLZ067>075-168-172>174-232230-
/O.CAN.KMFL.FA.A.0007.000000T0000Z-120924T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
516 PM EDT SUN SEP 23 2012

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON HAS LIMITED THE OVERALL THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL. ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAS OCCURRED OVER THE
WATCH AREA DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...SO THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR MORE RAIN ACROSS
MAINLY MIAMI DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES THIS EVENING...BUT THE
THREAT FOR MAJOR FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
343 AM EDT SUN SEP 23 2012

...FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST OF THE CWA TODAY...

SHORT TERM (TODAY)...S FLA STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE FULL
LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E U.S WHICH WILL BE STRENGTHENED
AGAIN TODAY AS SOME ENERGY DIVES SE INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS DRIVES THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO N FLA THIS MORNING. WITH THE STRONG ATLC
UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE S BAHAMAS...CUBA AND THE N CARIBBEAN
...A SW WIND FLOW AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OVER S FLA KEEPING THE
RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE AREA. WATER VAPOR LOOPS
INDICATE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVING NE OVER THE GULF OF MEX WHICH
WILL CROSS S FLA TODAY. THUS, ANOTHER WET DAY FOR S FLA AS ALL AREAS
WILL AGAIN SEE PRECIPITATION BUT ESPECIALLY THE SE 2/3RDS OF THE
AREA WHERE HEAVY RAINS SATURDAY TOTALLY SATURATED THE SOILS AND NOT
MUCH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND
FLOOD PRONE AREAS. A FLOOD WATCH WILL BEGIN AT 6 AM EDT AS THE HRR
INDICATES CONVECTION MOVING NE FROM THE GULF THAT WILL MOVE OVER
SE COLLIER...MAINLAND MONROE AND MIAMI DADE COUNTIES. SOME INSO
-LATION...SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE FROM
THE GULF WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER BOUT OF RAINFALL MAINLY THIS AFTER
-NOON. THE SW STEERING WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN
BE EXPECTED AGAIN. WITH POSSIBLE TRAINING OF ECHOES AND THE TOTALLY
SATURATED SOILS...THE WATCH WAS ISSUED.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS TONIGHT AND THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO S CENTRAL FLA EARLY MONDAY AND INTO S
FLA TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT POSSIBLY STALLING OVER THE FLA STRAITS AS
THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE NE. DRIER AIR MOVES OVER S
FLA BUT SW NOCTURNAL SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER CAN OCCUR TONIGHT AND
MONDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING MAINLY INTERIOR
AND E ACTIVITY WITH THE HIGHER POPS TOWARD THE SE.

&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS AN UPPER
LOW MOVES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
CONTINUING TO SHOVE THE E COAST UPPER TROUGH TO THE NE. WITH THE
ATLC RIDGE STILL ANCHORED TO THE SE OF THE AREA...A SW FLOW ALOFT
PERSISTS THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY. THE STALLED
FRONT KEEPS AN AREA OF LIFT/CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY OVER S FLA AND
WITH THE SW FLOW ALOFT...THE DIURNAL ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY
THE INTERIOR AND E THOUGH WITH LESS INTENSITY THAT THIS WEEKEND
HAS/WILL SEE.

&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW TODAY BECOMES NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND
INCREASES MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH S FLA WHICH STALLS
OVER THE FLA STRAITS. ATLC SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FEET TODAY WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET IN THE NW WIND FLOW WITH THE HIGHER SEAS OFF
OF PALM BEACH COUNTY. GULF WATERS APPEAR TO STAY WITHIN THE 1 TO 2
FOOT RANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MAY INCREASE
ALONG THE E COAST WITH THE NE WINDS AND FAVORABLE TIDES.

&&
.FIRE WEATHER...EVERYTHING WILL GET WET OR IS IN STANDING WATER. NO
PROBLEMS EXPECTED.

&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  74  87  77 / 60 50 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE  86  76  87  78 / 70 50 40 20
MIAMI            87  75  88  77 / 70 50 40 20
NAPLES           86  73  89  72 / 50 40 30 20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH PALM BEACH, BROWARD, MIAMI DADE, MAINLAND
     MONROE AND COLLIER COUNTIES FROM 6 AM EDT UNTIL 8 PM EDT.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...15/JR
AVIATION/RADAR...10/CD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
935 PM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
231100-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
935 PM EDT SAT SEP 22 2012

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
MAIN IMPACTS FROM THE STORMS.

FLOODING: GIVEN THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL, ISOLATED STREET FLOODING
AND FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH
ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY,
AND WITH A CONTINUED TROUGH ALOFT, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL AGAIN
FOR ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS COULD LEAD TO FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SATURATED GROUND FROM THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL.
A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY, AND THIS WILL BE ASSESSED
OVERNIGHT...SO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATES.

A RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE
EAST COAST BEACHES AS EASTERLY WINDS RETURN DUE TO A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

GREGORIA