Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
603 PM CST SUN DEC 9 2012

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CST SUN DEC 9 2012/

DISCUSSION...
LOTS OF WEATHER TO DISCUSS AND MODELS REMARKABLE SIMILAR IN THERE
GENERAL SOLUTIONS UNTIL THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. DEW
POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 60S IN MANY PLACES...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...THIS DUE TO A LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONG
SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH. CAPE IS NOT VERY HIGH FROM LATEST
SOUNDING FROM LZK...HOWEVER HELICITY IS OVER 300 M2/S2. MEMPHIS
SHOWING SIMILAR RESULTS FROM MODELS AND OBSERVATIONS.

THIS EVENING...EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF STORMS WILL PROGRESS WITH
FRONT...HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME WEAKENING UNLESS ADVECTION OF
DEW POINTS OCCURS MORE IN EASTERN HALF OF CWA...WHICH STILL MAY HAPPEN.

HOWEVER...LIFT FROM FRONT WILL PROVIDE INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH BY TOMORROW MORNING FOR AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING SOME AREAS BASICALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF MEMPHIS MAY SEE SOME SLEET...HOWEVER...GROUND
WILL BE TO WARM FOR ANY ACCUMULATION AND AIR TEMPERATURE SHOULD BE
ABOVE FREEZING SO MELTING WILL OCCUR QUICKLY. WINDS WILL SHIFT AND
BE STRONGER BEHIND FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY AHEAD OF FRONT.

BY TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO TAKE OVER THROUGH FRIDAY.

EXTENDED MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING FOR FRONT NEXT
WEEKEND. GFS INDICATES IT MAY MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY...WHILE
ECMWF IS INDICATING SUNDAY. HAVE LEFT NEXT WEEKEND RELATIVELY WET
IN THE FORECAST AS UNSURE OF TIMING OF FRONT.

TLSJR

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

MULTIPLE CLOUD DECKS PERSIST WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL MOIST WARM SECTOR
WITH MAINLY MVFR AND VFR CIGS AND UNRESTRICTED VSBYS OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION. ALL TAF SITES REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS OF 00Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF MORE SOLID LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH IS
CURRENTLY ALIGNED ALONG AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT. THE PRE-
FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL BE HANDLED WITH VCTS WORDING AT KMEM AND
KTUP...WITH PREVAILING TSRA AT KMKL FOR THE FIRST HOUR OF THE TAF
PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KTS WILL BE COMMON AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AT TAF SITES THIS EVENING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING KJBR FIRST BETWEEN 00Z-01Z...KMEM BETWEEN 03Z-05Z...KMKL
BETWEEN 03-07Z...AND KTUP BETWEEN 05Z-09Z. A FEW OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE THIS EVENING WITH STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL. BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
(UP TO 20 KTS) WILL BE COMMON ALONG WITH LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS.
MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES.

AS DEEP ARCTIC AIRMASS SURGES SOUTH INTO THE REGION BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ACTS ON LINGERING
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND OR
SNOW SHOWERS AT KJBR...KMEM...AND KMKL. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT AND NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON AVIATION. MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SKIES WILL
EVENTUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KTS.

JLH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  38  42  27  44 / 100  40   0   0
MKL  43  45  23  44 / 100  50  10   0
JBR  34  42  25  42 / 100  20   0   0
TUP  50  50  28  47 / 100  70  10   0

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
432 PM CST SUN DEC 9 2012

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-110045-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
432 PM CST SUN DEC 9 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING...MOST
LIKELY HAZARD WOULD BE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR A TORNADO...MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND IN
TENNESSEE AND MISSISSIPPI IN COUNTIES THAT BORDER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
FOR ALL OF THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

SOME AREAS MAY SEE SOME SLEET ON MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE NO
ACCUMULATION AND THUS NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
644 PM CST SUN DEC 9 2012

MOZ115-TNZ001-002-100115-
PEMISCOT MO-LAKE TN-OBION TN-
644 PM CST SUN DEC 9 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 715 PM CST FOR...

  LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  NORTHWESTERN OBION COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  PEMISCOT COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 6 MILES EAST OF WARDELL AT 645 PM CST...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
OCCUR WITH THIS  THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN LAKE...OBION AND PEMISCOT COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS
NEAR CARUTHERSVILLE...HAYTI...REELFOOT LAKE STATE PARK AND STEELE...
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

.A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ADVISORY AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3646 8932 3619 8960 3601 8996 3638 8984
      3639 8976 3643 8973 3640 8968 3641 8960
      3635 8953 3638 8952 3643 8955 3646 8953
      3650 8954 3650 8949 3647 8949 3646 8946
      3650 8941 3651 8931
TIME...MOT...LOC 0045Z 242DEG 36KT 3635 8968

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
658 PM CST SUN DEC 9 2012

ARZ035-100145-
CROSS AR-
658 PM CST SUN DEC 9 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 745 PM CST FOR...

  CROSS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF FAIR OAKS AT 659 PM
CST...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
OCCUR WITH THIS  THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN CROSS COUNTY...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR WYNNE...SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

.A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ADVISORY AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3544 9105 3544 9062 3520 9061 3514 9103
      3515 9105
TIME...MOT...LOC 0059Z 261DEG 31KT 3527 9108

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
710 PM CST SUN DEC 9 2012

ARZ027-035-100145-
CROSS AR-POINSETT AR-
710 PM CST SUN DEC 9 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 745 PM CST FOR...

  EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL CROSS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  SOUTHEASTERN POINSETT COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 5 MILES EAST OF HARRISBURG AT 711 PM CST...
MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
OCCUR WITH THIS  THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN CROSS AND POINSETT COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR
HARRISBURG...LEPANTO...MARKED TREE AND TYRONZA...SHOULD MONITOR THIS
STORM CLOSELY.

.A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ADVISORY AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3544 9089 3560 9082 3570 9033 3570 9028
      3544 9029
TIME...MOT...LOC 0111Z 249DEG 29KT 3558 9057