Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
340 PM CST SUN DEC 9 2012

.DISCUSSION...
LOTS OF WEATHER TO DISCUSS AND MODELS REMARKABLE SIMILAR IN THERE
GENERAL SOLUTIONS UNTIL THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. DEW
POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 60S IN MANY PLACES...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...THIS DUE TO A LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONG
SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH. CAPE IS NOT VERY HIGH FROM LATEST
SOUNDING FROM LZK...HOWEVER HELICITY IS OVER 300 M2/S2. MEMPHIS
SHOWING SIMILAR RESULTS FROM MODELS AND OBSERVATIONS.

THIS EVENING...EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF STORMS WILL PROGRESS WITH
FRONT...HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME WEAKENING UNLESS ADVECTION OF
DEW POINTS OCCURS MORE IN EASTERN HALF OF CWA...WHICH STILL MAY HAPPEN.

HOWEVER...LIFT FROM FRONT WILL PROVIDE INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH BY TOMORROW MORNING FOR AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE MORNING SOME AREAS BASICALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF MEMPHIS MAY SEE SOME SLEET...HOWEVER...GROUND
WILL BE TO WARM FOR ANY ACCUMULATION AND AIR TEMPERATURE SHOULD BE
ABOVE FREEZING SO MELTING WILL OCCUR QUICKLY. WINDS WILL SHIFT AND
BE STRONGER BEHIND FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY AHEAD OF FRONT.

BY TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO TAKE OVER THROUGH FRIDAY.

EXTENDED MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING FOR FRONT NEXT
WEEKEND. GFS INDICATES IT MAY MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY...WHILE
ECMWF IS INDICATING SUNDAY. HAVE LEFT NEXT WEEKEND RELATIVELY WET
IN THE FORECAST AS UNSURE OF TIMING OF FRONT. TLSJR

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS

COMPLEX NEXT 24 HOURS FOR AVIATION WEATHER...AS THE PERSISTENT
MARITIME AIRMASS IS DISPLACED BY AN ARCTIC SURGE TONIGHT.

WARM SECTOR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...WITH MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS AND PREFRONTAL CELLULAR
SHRA/TSRA. IFR CIGS AT LEAST APPEAR UNLIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
THE VFR SLOT OVER NORTHEAST MS MAY EXPAND WESTWARD TO MEM...AT
LEAST TEMPORARILY.

EXPECT LINEAR MODE TSRA ALONG A STRONGLY FORCED ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE THIS EVENING. POST FRONTAL TS SHOULD TAPER OFF TO
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CIGS TOWARD DAYBREAK AT
ALL BUT TUP. A SECONDARY POST FRONTAL DISTURBANCE ALOFT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A BRIEF RAIN/SLEET MIX AT MEM AND MKL POST SUNRISE
MONDAY...PER NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS. GROUND AND BOUNDARY LAYER AIR
TEMPS WILL BE TOO WARM FOR ANY ACCUMULATION.

LOOKING WELL BEYOND THE TAF VALID PERIOD... MONDAY EVENING CARGO
OPS AT MEM SHOULD SEE VFR AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WITH THE VERY
DRY ARCTIC SURFACE RIDGE EDGING IN FROM THE OZARKS.

PWB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  38  42  27  44 / 100  40   0   0
MKL  43  45  23  44 / 100  50  10   0
JBR  34  42  25  42 / 100  20   0   0
TUP  50  50  28  47 / 100  70  10   0

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
313 PM CST SUN DEC 9 2012

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-102315-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
313 PM CST SUN DEC 9 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING...MOST
LIKELY HAZARD WOULD BE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR A TORNADO...MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND IN
TENNESSEE AND MISSISSIPPI IN COUNTIES THAT BORDER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

SOME AREAS MAY SEE SOME SLEET ON MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE NO
ACCUMULATION AND THUS NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

TLSJR

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