Alert archive / Arkansas / Special Weather Statements in 2012

Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

October 17, 2012Poinsett County, Arkansas

NWS Memphis, TN issued this special weather statement at Oct 17, 2012, 5:51 PM CDT for Poinsett County, Arkansas. It was in force for 39 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 17, 2012, 5:51 PM CDT (22:51 UTC)
Expired
Oct 17, 2012, 6:30 PM CDT
In force
39 min
Issued by
NWS Memphis, TN

County Poinsett County, AR

The radar

The Memphis radar (KNQA), 99 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:53 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 12:00Z, 10.9 hours before the alert went out and 121 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Little Rock, AR at 12:00Z on 2012-10-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Little Rock, AR at 12:00Z on 2012-10-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 328 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
843 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
328 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
347 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
-0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Oct 17, 5:28 PM CDT, 23 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 17, 5:28 PM CDT, 23 minutes before
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Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 17, 5:30 PM CDT, 21 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
530 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2012

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-190030-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
530 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH REGION TONIGHT.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL BEING A
SECONDARY THREAT. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

A WIND ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT TODAY ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS...THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...WEST TENNESSEE...AND PORTIONS OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. SUSTAINED WINDS NEARING 25 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS NEARING
45 MPH ARE EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH
ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE MIDSOUTH. A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Oct 17, 4:27 PM CDT, 1 hour 24 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
427 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2012

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-180500-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABERDEEN...AMORY...BARTLETT...
BATESVILLE...BLYTHEVILLE...BOLIVAR...BOONEVILLE...
CARUTHERSVILLE...CLARKSDALE...COLLIERVILLE...CORINTH...
COVINGTON...DRESDEN...DYERSBURG...FORREST CITY...GERMANTOWN...
HARRISBURG...HELENA...HUMBOLDT...HUNTINGDON...IUKA...JACKSON...
JONESBORO...KENNETT...LEXINGTON...MARTIN...MEMPHIS...MILAN...
MILLINGTON...NEW ALBANY...OLIVE BRANCH...OXFORD...PARAGOULD...
PARIS...SAVANNAH...SOMERVILLE...SOUTHAVEN...TUNICA...TUPELO...
UNION CITY...WALNUT RIDGE...WEST MEMPHIS...WYNNE
427 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2012

...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID SOUTH FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH WITH
POWERFUL ATMOSPHERIC WINDS WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF ARKANSAS HAVE THUS FAR HELPED TO LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ROUNDS THE BASE OF A BROAD TOUGH...STORMS
SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY. THE LIKELIHOOD OF SUPERCELLS
AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT
THE LIKELIHOOD OF SIGNIFICANT PRE FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE
DIMINISHING.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIALLY DEVELOP TO THE WEST ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A LINE OF STORMS BUILDING
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

ALL SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE POSSIBLE TO INCLUDE DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
EVOLVE INTO AN INTENSE SQUALL LINE BY EVENING AS IT CROSSES THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MOST LIKELY IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI BETWEEN 6 AND 10 PM. DAMAGING WINDS...POTENTIALLY
WIDESPREAD...WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME THE PRIMARY THREAT LATER THIS
EVENING ALTHOUGH A FEW TORNADOES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. THE LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEST
TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY.

SEVERE WEATHER AFTER SUNSET IS PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS. RESIDENTS
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER PLANS NOW
AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IF
SEVERE WEATHER THREATENS YOUR LOCATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST
REGARDING THIS EXPECTED SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION.
Special weather statement, Oct 17, 5:51 PM CDT, 0 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
551 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2012

ARZ027-035-172330-
CROSS AR-POINSETT AR-
551 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 630 PM CDT FOR...

  NORTHWESTERN CROSS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  WESTERN POINSETT COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF HICKORY RIDGE AT 551
PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
OCCUR WITH THIS  THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN CROSS AND POINSETT COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

.A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ADVISORY AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3571 9104 3570 9072 3536 9078 3536 9105
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 255DEG 39KT 3552 9112

The office that day

Everything else NWS Memphis, TN issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 17, 3:49 AM CDTWind AdvisoryMEGBenton, Coahoma, DeSoto, Lafayette, Marshall, Panola and 5 more20 hr
Oct 17, 6:46 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMEGDyer, Lauderdale44 min
Oct 17, 6:07 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMEGClay, Greene38 min
Oct 17, 6:34 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMEGCraighead41 min
Oct 17, 6:40 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMEGCross, Poinsett50 min
Oct 17, 6:41 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMEGDunklin49 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Arkansas, 2012Every special weather statement in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.