Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
925 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE OF GRIDS MAINLY FOR END OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AS IT
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL END CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER
OF FORECAST AREA.

ACTIVE LINE OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL COOLING THINGS OFF LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALMOST ALL THE MID-SOUTH.
WILL BE CLEARING SOME OF THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES SOON.  TLSJR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012/

UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012/

DISCUSSION...

WATCHING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OUT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD
MAKE IT INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. MEANWHILE...THE COLD
FRONT NOW STRETCHES PEORIA ILLINOIS TO NEAR TULSA OKLAHOMA. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE MIDSOUTH AROUND 00Z(7 PM). EXPECT
A SQUALL LINE ALONG THE FRONT WHICH COULD BE SEVERE. DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE STORMS. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL POST-FRONTAL AND WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
JUST RAIN. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT.

SOME LINGERING RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE SATURDAY MORNING BUT THE RAIN WILL
QUICKLY CLEAR BY NOON. PLEASANT TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
THE WEEK. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AS MODELS SHOW A
REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WHILE THE LOWS WILL BE IN THE
50S. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST. SFC WINDS WILL TURN AROUND TO THE
SOUTH AND TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FROM THE 18Z TAF UPDATE...AN
ISOLATED STORM AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE SHOULD APPROACH JBR WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR...BUT OVERALL THINKING IMPACT AT MEM...MKL AND
EVENTUALLY TUP WILL BE SLIGHTLY LATER THAT PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
A LINE OF SHRAS AND TSRAS ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. IFR
VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER TSRAS. AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF SHRAS WITH OCNL MVFR VSBYS. CIGS
WILL ALSO DETERIORATE AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE TO MVFR LEVELS. PRECIP
WILL TAPER OFF AND CLOUDS WILL SCT OUT FROM NW TO SE SATURDAY
MORNING. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW AT ALL SITES TOMORROW
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  67  78  57  82 /  90  20   0   0
MKL  68  76  52  80 /  90  30   0   0
JBR  63  77  54  81 / 100  10   0   0
TUP  71  79  56  81 /  90  60   0   0

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
539 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-081100-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
539 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE MID SOUTH. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL
AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WEST TENNESSEE...NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING IN
SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
518 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

ARZ008-017-072245-
LAWRENCE AR-RANDOLPH AR-
518 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 545 PM CDT FOR...

  LAWRENCE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  SOUTH CENTRAL RANDOLPH COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS
BETWEEN 40 TO 50 MPH WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF ANNIEVILLE
AT 519 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
OCCUR WITH THIS  THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN LAWRENCE AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR
BLACK ROCK...HOXIE...LAKE CHARLES STATE PARK...POCAHONTAS AND WALNUT
RIDGE...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

.A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ADVISORY
AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3624 9134 3625 9133 3625 9127 3629 9126
      3633 9096 3595 9096 3603 9136 3623 9136
TIME...MOT...LOC 2219Z 271DEG 12KT 3618 9129

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
718 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

TNZ019-048-050-051-080045-
CROCKETT TN-DYER TN-HAYWOOD TN-LAUDERDALE TN-
718 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 745 PM CDT FOR...

  WESTERN CROCKETT COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  SOUTH CENTRAL DYER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  EXTREME NORTHWESTERN HAYWOOD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  NORTHEASTERN LAUDERDALE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF HALLS AT 718 PM CDT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
OCCUR WITH THIS  THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN CROCKETT...DYER...HAYWOOD AND LAUDERDALE COUNTIES...
INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR DYERSBURG...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3606 8935 3589 8914 3573 8949 3586 8961
TIME...MOT...LOC 0018Z 230DEG 22KT 3585 8949

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1001 PM CDT FRI SEP 07 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S JONESBORO           35.81N 90.69W
09/07/2012                   CRAIGHEAD          AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN ON THREE CARS NEAR INTERSECTION
            OF CARAWAY ROAD AND HIGHWAY 63.

0800 PM     FLASH FLOOD      JONESBORO               35.82N 90.69W
09/07/2012                   CRAIGHEAD          AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLOODING IN WEST JONESBORO AND JONESBORO. WATER OVER A
            FOOT DEEP.

0850 PM     TSTM WND GST     KENNETT                 36.24N 90.05W
09/07/2012  M0.00 MPH        DUNKLIN            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            40 TO 50 MILE PER HOUR WIND MEASURED ON TRAINED SPOTTERS
            ANEMOMETER.

0952 PM     TSTM WND GST     ATOKA                   35.45N 89.77W
09/07/2012  M0.00 MPH        TIPTON             TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            68 MILE PER HOUR WIND GUST MEASURED NEAR BORDER OF SHELBY
            AND TIPTON COUNTIES.

&&

AJC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1016 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

MSZ001>003-TNZ048>052-088>090-080400-
BENTON MS-MARSHALL MS-DE SOTO MS-SHELBY TN-CROCKETT TN-FAYETTE TN-
HARDEMAN TN-HAYWOOD TN-LAUDERDALE TN-MADISON TN-TIPTON TN-
1016 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR...

  NORTHERN BENTON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHEASTERN DESOTO COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  SOUTHERN CROCKETT COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  HARDEMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  HAYWOOD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHEASTERN LAUDERDALE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  EASTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  EASTERN TIPTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS
LOCATED FROM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF BELLE EAGLE TO 5 MILES EAST OF
OLIVE BRANCH AT 1016 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
OCCUR WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

PEOPLE IN BENTON...CROCKETT...DESOTO...FAYETTE...HARDEMAN...
HAYWOOD...LAUDERDALE...MADISON...MARSHALL...SHELBY AND TIPTON
COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR BOLIVAR...BROWNSVILLE...
COLLIERVILLE...CORDOVA...GERMANTOWN...JACKSON AND OLIVE BRANCH...
SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

.A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ADVISORY
AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3543 8882 3543 8884 3539 8884 3490 8907
      3490 8997 3545 8968 3576 8939 3578 8864
TIME...MOT...LOC 0316Z 274DEG 52KT 3574 8914 3552 8922
          3497 8967

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1023 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

ARZ049-058-MSZ001-007-010-080430-
LEE AR-PHILLIPS AR-TUNICA MS-DE SOTO MS-COAHOMA MS-
1023 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1130 PM CDT FOR...

  LEE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  PHILLIPS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  NORTHWESTERN COAHOMA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  WEST CENTRAL DESOTO COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  TUNICA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS
LOCATED FROM MORO TO 23 MILES WEST OF WHITE RIVER NATIONAL WILDLIFE
REFUGE AT 1024 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
OCCUR WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

PEOPLE IN COAHOMA...DESOTO...LEE...PHILLIPS AND TUNICA COUNTIES...
INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR ELAINE...HELENA...MARIANNA...MARVELL...ST
FRANCIS NATIONAL PARK...WEST HELENA AND WHITE RIVER NATIONAL WILDLIFE
REFUGE...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY. THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ALERT ALSO INCLUDES HORSESHOE LAKE...MIDWAY LAKE AND OLD TOWN LAKE.

.A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ADVISORY
AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3422 9107 3429 9108 3434 9105 3435 9101
      3446 9101 3448 9106 3473 9106 3474 9111
      3483 9111 3487 9108 3487 9041 3484 9041
      3486 9034 3484 9031 3487 9031 3487 9016
      3412 9073 3412 9111
TIME...MOT...LOC 0324Z 271DEG 32KT 3479 9102 3419 9147

30/SIRMON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1031 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

TNZ003-004-020-021-051-052-054-080415-
WEAKLEY TN-CARROLL TN-CROCKETT TN-GIBSON TN-HENDERSON TN-HENRY TN-
MADISON TN-
1031 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1115 PM CDT FOR...

  CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHEASTERN CROCKETT COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHEASTERN GIBSON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  HENRY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  EASTERN WEAKLEY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  NORTHERN HENDERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  NORTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS
LOCATED FROM 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF PALMERSVILLE TO 5 MILES NORTHWEST
OF ADAIR AT 1032 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
OCCUR WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

PEOPLE IN CARROLL...CROCKETT...GIBSON...HENDERSON...HENRY...MADISON
AND WEAKLEY COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR HUMBOLDT...
HUNTINGDON...MCKENZIE...MILAN...NATCHEZ TRACE STATE FOREST...NATCHEZ
TRACE STATE PARK...PARIS LANDING STATE PARK AND PARIS...SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

.A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ADVISORY
AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3635 8806 3635 8809 3625 8808 3622 8813
      3612 8820 3588 8821 3585 8820 3585 8818
      3574 8819 3571 8914 3573 8917 3618 8867
      3651 8862 3650 8805
TIME...MOT...LOC 0332Z 267DEG 32KT 3652 8849 3619 8855
          3578 8900