Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
922 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI THIS
EVENING. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG
AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND THESE WILL CONTINUE TO SAG
SOUTHEAST INTO MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT. ANY SEVERE CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE TO WANE OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES AND UPPER
LEVEL WIND FIELDS REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. CURRENT FORECAST WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH LOOK ON
TRACK. NO UPDATES NEEDED ATTM.

SJM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012/

UNSTABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI. THIS ACTIVITY THOUGH HAS BEEN DWARFED COMPARED
TO THE STORMS IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI...WHERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
THE MIDSOUTH WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

SHORT TERM...BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL LIE IN NORTH
MISSISSIPPI AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH MID EVENING WITH
A PULSE TYPE STORM MODE. AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM CAN'T BE RULED
OUT DURING THIS TIME FRAME. CONVECTION...WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING...WILL WANE OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI BY SUNSET WITH MODELS
SHOWING A COLD POOL GENERATION FROM THE MISSOURI STORMS PUSHING
EAST SOUTHEAST TO OUR NORTHERN BORDER. SO HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY
POPS AFTER 03Z ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE BOOTHEEL OF
MISSOURI THEN SLOWLY SLIDING THOSE LIKELY CHANCES TOWARDS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI BY FRIDAY MORNING. A DEVELOPING 25 TO 30 KT LLJ
OVERNIGHT WILL AID IN SOME OF THESE STORMS BEING SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS...THEN WITH SOME HEATING/BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AN
INCREASED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL IS FORECASTED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH
OF THE MEMPHIS METRO BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BELOW THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AS
RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER DURING THE MORNING WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S THROUGH NOON.

MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER WITH FRONTAL PLACEMENT AFTER 18/00Z. THE
GFS IS MORE BOLD ON TAKING THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
COLD POOL SOUTH BELOW I-20 BY FRIDAY EVENING...WHILE THE NAM KEEPS
THE FRONT STALLED NEAR I-40. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF BOTH MODELS
WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LINGERING ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI AND EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DRIER AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MIDSOUTH COUNTIES. THIS PUSH WILL CONTINUE SOUTH LATE SUNDAY AS
BOTH A 500MB LOW CENTER OVER JAMES BAY CANADA DEEPENS AND
REINFORCING SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LOWER UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW THE
90 DEGREE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK....WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

GULF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE AREA STARTING WEDNESDAY
WITH AN UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING FIXED OVER THE LOWER AND
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS FROM THE GFS AND EURO
SHOW A COLD FRONT/REINFORCING SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE MIDSOUTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ON THURSDAY INDICATING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL IN THE AREA. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CLIMB
TO NEAR THE 90F DEGREE NORMAL WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F ALSO
RETURNING...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON
FRIDAY. CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR LEVELS IN THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND THEN
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH.

ARS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  72  85  65  83 /  60  60  20  10
MKL  69  82  60  82 /  60  60  20  10
JBR  68  82  61  81 /  70  40  20  10
TUP  72  89  67  84 /  30  60  40  20

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

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