Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
239 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

.DISCUSSION...

UNSTABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI. THIS ACTIVITY THOUGH HAS BEEN DWARFED COMPARED
TO THE STORMS IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI...WHERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
THE MIDSOUTH WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

SHORT TERM...BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL LIE IN NORTH
MISSISSIPPI AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH MID EVENING WITH
A PULSE TYPE STORM MODE. AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM CAN'T BE RULED
OUT DURING THIS TIME FRAME. CONVECTION...WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING...WILL WANE OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI BY SUNSET WITH MODELS
SHOWING A COLD POOL GENERATION FROM THE MISSOURI STORMS PUSHING
EAST SOUTHEAST TO OUR NORTHERN BORDER. SO HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY
POPS AFTER 03Z ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE BOOTHEEL OF
MISSOURI THEN SLOWLY SLIDING THOSE LIKELY CHANCES TOWARDS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI BY FRIDAY MORNING. A DEVELOPING 25 TO 30 KT LLJ
OVERNIGHT WILL AID IN SOME OF THESE STORMS BEING SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS...THEN WITH SOME HEATING/BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AN
INCREASED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL IS FORECASTED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH
OF THE MEMPHIS METRO BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BELOW THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AS
RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER DURING THE MORNING WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S THROUGH NOON.

MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER WITH FRONTAL PLACEMENT AFTER 18/00Z. THE
GFS IS MORE BOLD ON TAKING THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
COLD POOL SOUTH BELOW I-20 BY FRIDAY EVENING...WHILE THE NAM KEEPS
THE FRONT STALLED NEAR I-40. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF BOTH MODELS
WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LINGERING ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI AND EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DRIER AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MIDSOUTH COUNTIES. THIS PUSH WILL CONTINUE SOUTH LATE SUNDAY AS
BOTH A 500MB LOW CENTER OVER JAMES BAY CANADA DEEPENS AND
REINFORCING SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LOWER UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW THE
90 DEGREE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK....WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

GULF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE AREA STARTING WEDNESDAY
WITH AN UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING FIXED OVER THE LOWER AND
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS FROM THE GFS AND EURO
SHOW A COLD FRONT/REINFORCING SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE MIDSOUTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ON THURSDAY INDICATING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL IN THE AREA. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CLIMB
TO NEAR THE 90F DEGREE NORMAL WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F ALSO
RETURNING...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

A DEEP MOIST AND TROPICAL AIRMASS HAS MOVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. STRONG HEATING COMBINED WITH THIS ENHANCED MOISTURE SHOULD
LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AT
KMEM...KMKL...AND KTUP. THIS DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH BY
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 5-10 KTS THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST FOR LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND IMPACT TAF SITES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT PERIOD. VFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD PREVAIL
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT TURN ABRUBTLY NORTH FOLLOWING
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND INCREASE TO BETWEEN 5-10 KTS.

THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI BY MID MORNING
FRIDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT...INCLUDING KMEM...KMKL...AND KTUP THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END BY MID TO
LATE MORNING AT KJBR. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME MVFR CIGS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL.

JLH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  72  85  65  83 /  60  60  20  20
MKL  69  82  60  82 /  60  60  20  10
JBR  68  82  61  81 /  70  40  20  10
TUP  72  89  67  84 /  30  60  40  20

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
244 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

MSZ013-162015-
LAFAYETTE MS-
244 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 315 PM CDT FOR...

  LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED OVER HOLLY SPRINGS NATIONAL FOREST AT 245 PM
CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
OCCUR WITH THIS  THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN LAFAYETTE COUNTY...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR HOLLY SPRINGS
NATIONAL FOREST AND OXFORD...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3442 8926 3419 8936 3423 8971 3446 8972
TIME...MOT...LOC 1945Z 310DEG 11KT 3433 8955