Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
650 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2012

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2012/

MORNING CONVECTION HAS MOVED EAST OF THE MIDSOUTH AS EXPECTED
WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE SPREADING OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND
STRETCHES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHEAST TX. THE FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH WALNUT RIDGE ARKANSAS AND IS APPROACHING JONESBORO.

STILL THINK THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...ALTHOUGH THE SITUATION IS NOT CLEAR CUT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EAST OF THE MIDSOUTH
WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT NOW LIMITED ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY IS ALSO SHOWING VERY DRY AIR ALOFT MOVING INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR IS PUSHING INTO
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS. TEMPERATURES
IN NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AR ARE MOVING INTO THE LOWER 90S AND
SURFACE BASED CAPES HAVE INCREASED TO BETWEEN 2000 AND 2500 J/KG AND
LIFTED INDICES HAVE DECREASED TO ABOUT MINUS 6.

LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH (HRRR) MODEL INDICATES THAT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO FORM ALONG THE
COLD FRONT BY 3 OR 4 PM...THEN BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS
THE STORMS MOVE EAST OF THE MS RIVER BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME QUITE
UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 32000 AND 4200 J/KG WITH LIFTED INDICES DECREASING TO MINUS
8. ALTHOUGH...THE HRRR MODEL INDICATES THE STORMS WILL STRUGGLE IN
COVERAGE WITH SUCH DRY AIR ALOFT LIMITING THE MOISTURE.
ALTHOUGH...THE DRY AIR ALOFT WILL ENHANCE THE DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL
WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS.
LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST NEAR THE MS RIVER BY LATE
AFTERNOON...THEN WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH
TONIGHT. THINK THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL END BY LATE EVENING.

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE EARLIER FORECAST CONCERNING TUESDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD OVER THE
MIDSOUTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR GOOD DIURNAL SPREADS IN
TEMPERATURES WITH RELATIVELY COOL NIGHTS AND VERY WARM AFTERNOONS.

A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY WITH
VERY UNSTABLE AND MOIST AIR SPREADING BACK OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL
CAUSE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH
THE REGION FRIDAY INCREASING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTH MS SATURDAY BUT
OTHERWISE KEPT WITH A RAINFREE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
MONDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME QUESTION HOW FAR THE COLD FRONT WILL
SETTLE SOUTHWARD BECOMING STALLING...SO SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AR AND NORTH MS INTO
SUNDAY.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

THE FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH KJBR AND IS NOW MOVING THROUGH KMEM. TSRAS
HAVE MOVED EAST OF KMEM AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY. SCT SHRAS AND TSRAS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS OF
THE MIDSOUTH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND HAVE CONTINUED VCTS AT
KMKL AND KTUP. VFR CONDS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF TSRAS OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME FOG POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT KMKL AND KTUP.
BECOMING CONCERNED ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUDS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. A LARGE DECK OF STRATOCU OVER MO MAY PUSH SE ACROSS THE
AREA LATER TONIGHT. KMKL IS THE MOST LIKELY SPOT TO HAVE MVFR CIGS
AND HAVE ADDED THEM TO THE TAF. THE LOWER CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS
TIME.

SJM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  70  88  68  93 /  20   0  10  10
MKL  66  86  59  90 /  30  10  10  10
JBR  65  87  62  92 /  10   0  10  10
TUP  71  89  65  91 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
130 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2012

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-141100-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
130 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MIDSOUTH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE AFFECTED
AREA IS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM AROUND KENNETT
MISSOURI TO HARRISBURG ARKANSAS TO PHILLIPS COUNTY ARKANSAS.
THERE WILL BE AN ENHANCED RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA.

JCL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
656 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2012

MSZ011-020-021-140030-
YALOBUSHA MS-TALLAHATCHIE MS-QUITMAN MS-
656 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 730 PM CDT FOR...

  SOUTHEASTERN QUITMAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  CENTRAL TALLAHATCHIE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  SOUTHWESTERN YALOBUSHA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF WEBB AT 657 PM CDT...
MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN QUITMAN...TALLAHATCHIE AND YALOBUSHA COUNTIES...INCLUDING
LOCATIONS NEAR CHARLESTON...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

.A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ADVISORY
AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3392 9037 3411 9026 3405 8972 3387 8976
      3387 8978 3389 8978 3389 8992 3383 8992
TIME...MOT...LOC 2357Z 281DEG 40KT 3400 9017

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
657 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2012

MSZ011>013-020-021-140030-
YALOBUSHA MS-TALLAHATCHIE MS-QUITMAN MS-PANOLA MS-LAFAYETTE MS-
657 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 730 PM CDT FOR...

  SOUTHWESTERN LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  SOUTHERN PANOLA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  EAST CENTRAL QUITMAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHEASTERN TALLAHATCHIE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHERN YALOBUSHA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF GEORGE PAYNE STATE PARK
AT 657 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN LAFAYETTE...PANOLA...QUITMAN...TALLAHATCHIE AND YALOBUSHA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR BATESVILLE...GEORGE PAYNE STATE
PARK AND WATER VALLEY...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY. THIS
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT ALSO INCLUDES SARDIS LAKE.

.A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ADVISORY
AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3422 8951 3398 8951 3421 9034 3433 8995
TIME...MOT...LOC 2357Z 290DEG 22KT 3420 8977

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
729 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2012

MSZ012-013-020>022-140100-
YALOBUSHA MS-TALLAHATCHIE MS-PANOLA MS-LAFAYETTE MS-CALHOUN MS-
729 PM CDT MON AUG 13 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR...

  NORTHWESTERN CALHOUN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  SOUTHWESTERN LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  SOUTHEASTERN PANOLA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  SOUTHEASTERN TALLAHATCHIE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  YALOBUSHA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND
WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED FROM 8 MILES WEST OF SPRINGDALE TO
4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SCOBEY AT 730 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN CALHOUN...LAFAYETTE...PANOLA...TALLAHATCHIE AND YALOBUSHA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR GEORGE PAYNE STATE PARK AND WATER
VALLEY...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY. THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ALERT ALSO INCLUDES SARDIS LAKE.

.A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ADVISORY
AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3380 9002 3426 8990 3423 8943 3386 8951
      3386 8969 3386 8977 3389 8978 3389 8992
      3383 8992 3381 8998
TIME...MOT...LOC 0030Z 274DEG 34KT 3423 8975 3388 8984

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