Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
421 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012

.DISCUSSION...

A MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH A
TURN TO MUCH NEEDED WETTER AND COOLER WEATHER CONDITIONS. A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NOTED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS WILL HELP TO FURTHER ERODE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
THAT HAS BEEN SO PERSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. IN
ADDITION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR OVER NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS IT REMAINS CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN JET STREAM FLOW. THESE
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE NOW IN PLACE (PWATS EXCEEDING
2 INCHES FROM REGIONAL 00Z SOUNDINGS) SHOULD SUPPORT AN UPSWING IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER COMBINED WITH STRONG HEATING
TODAY SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS /50 PERCENT/ AREAWIDE...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP AS
TEMPERATURES WARM QUICKLY INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S AND COMBINE
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MLCAPE
VALUES BETWEEN 2500-3500 J/KG...LI/S TO -8C...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES GREATER THAN 6.0 C/KM. THIS HIGH CAPE ENVIRONMENT COMBINED
WITH WEAK SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SEVERE
MICROBURSTS CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. DUE TO THE
SLOW MOVING NATURE OF STORMS TODAY...EXPECT WELCOME LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL.

THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO FORCE A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY
EVENING. MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SHOULD INTERACT WITH THE MOIST UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE ON MONDAY. THE FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TO A POSITION JUST NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN STALL OUT ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI THROUGH MID WEEK. IN ADDITION...UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODERATE INSTABILITY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH CONTINUED WEAK SHEAR
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF ENHANCED MICROBURST
POTENTIAL WITH LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK.
ALSO DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF STORMS MOVING OVER SIMILAR
AREAS FROM DAY TO DAY...SEVERAL INCHES OF MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL MAY
ALSO OCCUR IN SOME AREAS. THIS SHOULD HELP BEGIN TO ALLEVIATE THE
SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN AREAS THAT BENEFIT FROM HEAVIER
RAINFALL. NOT ALL AREAS WILL SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN...BUT SOME
AREAS MAY BENEFIT FROM THE WET/STORMY PATTERN. MOST AREAS SHOULD
AT LEAST GET SOME WETTING RAINS THIS UPCOMING WEEK.

THE FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND BEGIN TO LIFT
BACK TO THE NORTH. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST WITH DIURNALLY ENHANCED
CONVECTION BECOMING THE NORM FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO ENHANCED CLOUD COVER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ISOLD TSRAS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDSOUTH ATTM THOUGH NONE
WILL THREATEN THE TAF SITES IN THE SHORT TERM. EXPECT LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS OVERNIGHT. UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS SOME SUNDAY AFTERNOON SO SCT
TSRAS WILL OCCUR. WENT WITH A VCTS AT ALL SITES FOR NOW FROM
08/19Z-09/02Z. WINDS GENERALLY SSW/SW AT 5-10 KTS SUNDAY.

SJM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  94  75  90  75 /  50  50  60  50
MKL  94  72  89  71 /  50  50  60  50
JBR  95  74  89  73 /  50  50  60  50
TUP  94  73  89  73 /  50  40  60  50

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
422 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012

TNZ003-080945-
WEAKLEY TN-
422 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 445 AM CDT FOR...

  SOUTHERN WEAKLEY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 5
MILES SOUTHWEST OF GLEASON AT 423 AM CDT...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN WEAKLEY COUNTY...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR MARTIN...SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3637 8855 3613 8854 3612 8859 3612 8865
      3610 8866 3608 8874 3611 8877 3612 8879
      3635 8892
TIME...MOT...LOC 0923Z 163DEG 13KT 3619 8869