Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
351 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES A SURFACE
LOW ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW INTO EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS. ACROSS THE MID SOUTH...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT ARE AROUND 90 DEGREES AT
MOST LOCATIONS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE
SHORT TERM AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HOT TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE
WEEK ARE THE PREDOMINANT CONCERNS IN THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY CONFINED THIS AFTERNOON
THUS FAR TO AREAS IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA WHERE MOISTURE
HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT BETTER. WITH VERY LITTLE SHEAR ALOFT THIS PULSE
TYPE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY DAYTIME
INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED. THUS...THIS
AFTERNOON SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE
MUCH.

AT THE SAME TIME...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER ARKANSAS
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA THIS
EVENING...SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MID SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI
BY MONDAY EVENING. OVERALL SHEAR WITH THIS COLD FRONT REMAINS
VERY WEAK AT BEST /0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES BELOW 15 KTS/ AND NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD STRONG/SEVERE
THREAT WITH THE ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE FRONT...UNLESS A COLD POOL IS ABLE TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM AND MOVE
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH THIS PERIOD. NONETHELESS...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ABLE
TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS.

12Z LONG TERM GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY RAIN
FREE WEATHER AND VERY HOT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 90S...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MID SOUTH. DEEPER
MOISTURE NOTED FROM THE GOES SATELLITE SOUNDER ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WEAK CAPPING...STRONG HEATING...AND
INCREASED MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VICINITY OF KMEM AND KJBR THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS.

A SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS STATES THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT AND MAY HELP TO INCREASE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER THE MID
SOUTH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. HAVE MAINTAINED TEMPO GROUPS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT KJBR (02-05Z)...KMEM (03-06Z)...AND KMKL
(04-07Z)...ALTHOUGH STILL THINK ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN LOOSELY ORGANIZED. CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN PREFERRED
REGARDING TEMPO CONDITIONS. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
LATER TONIGHT AND MAINTAINED VCTS.

BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY MORNING WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY OF KTUP WITH EVEN HIGHER CHANCES ANTICIPATED BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD END FURTHER NORTH AT KJBR...KMKL BY MIDDAY. WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT LATER MONDAY
MORNING AT NORTHERN TAF SITES.

JLH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  68  83  60  81 /  40  40  10  10
MKL  63  81  54  79 /  40  40  10  10
JBR  64  80  55  81 /  50  30  10   0
TUP  63  86  58  81 /  20  40  20  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
353 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-211100-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
353 PM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT. A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH
TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH IS THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT REACHES SEVERE LIMITS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

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