Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
256 PM CDT TUE MAY 8 2012

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS
AFTERNOON. A SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT HAS INTERACTED WITH THE FRONT AND A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE TO RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE FRONT. SBCAPES ARE CURRENTLY IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG WITH LI/S
BETWEEN -3C AND -5C OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI. A FEW STRONG STORMS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THESE AREAS...BUT
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN
MODEST AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS WEAK. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE LATE INTO THIS EVENING AS A
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX NOW OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS MOVES EAST
AND SUSTAINS CONVECTION OVER THE AREA. CONVECTION SHOULD
EVENTUALLY WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS. FURTHER
NORTH...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AND KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY AND COOLER.

THE STALLED FRONT SHOULD ADVANCE FURTHER SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY AND FORCES THE FRONT TO THE GULF COAST. ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI SHOULD END BY LATE
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. THIS SHOULD BRING DRY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE MID
SOUTH BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS. DRY
AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WITH CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITY SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION.

BETTER MOISTURE WILL RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND AS SURFACE WINDS TURN
SOUTHERLY AND A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES...HIGHER HUMIDITY...AND
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A SMALL BATCH OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS HAS BEEN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER ARKANSAS FOR MOST OF THE MORNING. A LARGE
CONFLUENT ZONE BETWEEN A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF...AND EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES APPEAR TO BE
TRIGGERING THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER GIVEN THE LACK OF MORE LOCALIZED
FOCUS...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH RESPECT TO COVERAGE AND
LOCATION OF THESE SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT. KEPT VCSH MENTION AT
KTUP LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ALL OTHER
LOCATIONS DRY.

BORGHOFF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  62  78  56  79 /  40  10   0   0
MKL  54  77  47  75 /  30   0   0   0
JBR  55  77  51  77 /  20   0   0   0
TUP  61  78  52  77 /  60  20   0   0

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
324 PM CDT TUE MAY 8 2012

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-092230-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
324 PM CDT TUE MAY 8 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...GENERALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A CLARKSDALE TO TUPELO LINE. THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH MISSISSIPPI.

JLH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
413 PM CDT TUE MAY 8 2012

MSZ016-017-024-082145-
MONROE MS-LEE MS-ITAWAMBA MS-
413 PM CDT TUE MAY 8 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 445 PM CDT FOR...

  SOUTHWESTERN ITAWAMBA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  SOUTHEASTERN LEE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHERN MONROE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 3 MILES EAST OF SHANNON AT 413 PM CDT...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN ITAWAMBA...LEE AND MONROE COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS
NEAR AMORY...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3385 8852 3404 8872 3407 8872 3407 8876
      3410 8879 3423 8864 3401 8833
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 315DEG 16KT 3410 8864