Special Weather Statement, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
710 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATON DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012/

CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90F ALONG
AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER...WITH MAINLY 80S ACROSS THE EASTERN
MIDSOUTH COUNTIES. SOUTH WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY WEST OF THE RIVER
AND LIGHTER TO THE EAST. HEAT INDICES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
MID 90S.

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SHORT TERM ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
LIMITED TO POINTS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE FORTY THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET WITH THE
FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

MODELS ARE GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT NOW DRAPED FROM
CENTRAL IOWA TO WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
MIDSOUTH COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAKING ITS WAY TO THE MEMPHIS
AREA TOWARDS SUNRISE. INTENSITY NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AT THIS
TIME...AND COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. A
BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TO THE MID AND
UPPER 80S. POCKETS OF CAPE EXCEEDING 3000J/KG SEEMS REASONABLE
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT HOW MUCH SEVERE COVERAGE AT THIS POINT
IS STILL IN QUESTION AS BOTH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL HAVE TO
ERODE AND UPPER FORCING IS LAGGING BACK INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND PULSE TYPE STORM MODES SEEM MOST
FAVORABLE AS MID LEVEL WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN WEAK OVER THE
AREA. FOR THIS REASON THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOW MONDAY NIGHT
AND ON TUESDAY KEEPING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
FORECAST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE FORTY. FURTHER NORTH DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL
ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS AND DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 40S AND 50S...AS BOTH
A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AND COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SPRING LIKE
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER COUNTIES AND FORESTED REGIONS OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WITH 50S ELSEWHERE.

NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS BACK THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO THE WEST ON
SATURDAY WITH BOTH A WEAK COLD FRONT PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH AND A
WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES OVERHEAD. HAVE LEFT SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS THE AREA WILL LAG IN GULF MOISTURE
RECOVERY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE (07/00Z-08/00Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS LINGERING CONVECTION
DISSIPATES THIS EVENING. S WINDS 4-6 KTS TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
MONDAY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE IN THE DAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT KJBR...KMEM...AND KMKL
AFTER 10Z-13Z...MENTIONED VCSH FOR NOW. WITH DAYTIME HEATING
COMBINING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...THINK CONVECTION WILL
INCREASE IN INTENSITY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING...MENTIONED VCTS AT ALL THE TAF SITES AFTER 15Z-18Z
WITH THE EARLIEST TIME BEING AT KJBR. THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT...PUT TEMPO TSRA MONDAY
AFTERNOON BEGINNING FIRST AT KJBR AND LAST AT KTUP. SW WINDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS MONDAY.

JCL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  72  88  68  81 /  20  60  60  20
MKL  66  86  63  80 /  30  60  60  20
JBR  70  87  63  79 /  40  60  50   0
TUP  68  89  66  85 /  20  50  70  40

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
258 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-072200-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
258 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED STORMS MAY REACH STRONG TO SEVERE LIMITS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS A
SECONDARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL THE
MIDSOUTH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT..

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI AND MAY BE REQUESTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE
ENTIRE MIDSOUTH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

JAB

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
611 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

MSZ024-062345-
MONROE MS-
611 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 645 PM CDT FOR...

  NORTHERN MONROE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED OVER AMORY AT 612 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 15
MPH.

PEOPLE IN MONROE COUNTY...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR AMORY...SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3383 8828 3393 8861 3409 8855 3409 8848
      3404 8820
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 286DEG 11KT 3399 8847

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
631 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

ARZ028-MOZ113-115-070000-
MISSISSIPPI AR-DUNKLIN MO-PEMISCOT MO-
631 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR...

  NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  SOUTHEASTERN DUNKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...
  SOUTHWESTERN PEMISCOT COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF GOSNELL AT 632 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN DUNKLIN...MISSISSIPPI AND PEMISCOT COUNTIES...INCLUDING
LOCATIONS NEAR BLYTHEVILLE...GOSNELL AND STEELE...SHOULD MONITOR THIS
STORM CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3622 8993 3607 8973 3587 8999 3600 9015
TIME...MOT...LOC 2332Z 223DEG 11KT 3600 8999

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
658 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

ARZ028-070030-
MISSISSIPPI AR-
658 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 730 PM CDT FOR...

  NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 4 MILES WEST OF DELL AT 658 PM CDT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN MISSISSIPPI COUNTY...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR
BLYTHEVILLE...GOSNELL AND MANILA...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.
THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT ALSO INCLUDES BIG LAKE.

&&

LAT...LON 3584 8982 3572 9013 3587 9025 3600 9002
      3600 8994
TIME...MOT...LOC 2358Z 239DEG 10KT 3584 9010

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
730 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

ARZ009-070100-
CLAY AR-
730 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR...

  WESTERN CLAY COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 5 MILES EAST OF CORNING AT 731 PM CDT...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN CLAY COUNTY...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR CORNING...SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3628 9047 3639 9065 3650 9055 3650 9023
TIME...MOT...LOC 0031Z 218DEG 15KT 3641 9049

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
733 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

ARZ008-009-017-018-026-070100-
CLAY AR-CRAIGHEAD AR-GREENE AR-LAWRENCE AR-RANDOLPH AR-
733 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR...

  EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CLAY COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  NORTHWESTERN CRAIGHEAD COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  WESTERN GREENE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  SOUTHEASTERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  SOUTHEASTERN RANDOLPH COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF FONTAINE AT 734 PM CDT...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN CLAY...CRAIGHEAD...GREENE...LAWRENCE AND RANDOLPH
COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR HOXIE AND WALNUT RIDGE...SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3632 9079 3616 9054 3587 9088 3598 9105
TIME...MOT...LOC 0034Z 218DEG 15KT 3600 9090