Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Memphis, TN

808 
WWUS54 KMEG 151917
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
217 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

TNC047-069-151930-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0099.000000T0000Z-120315T1930Z/
FAYETTE TN-HARDEMAN TN-
217 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM CDT
FOR HARDEMAN AND EAST CENTRAL FAYETTE COUNTIES...

AT 217 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
MIDDLEBURG...OR NEAR BOLIVAR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BOLIVAR...
HICKORY VALLEY...HORNSBY...TOONE...SHANDY...MIDDLEBURG AND VAN BUREN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

&&

LAT...LON 3506 8918 3520 8927 3543 8887 3523 8878
TIME...MOT...LOC 1917Z 228DEG 20KT 3525 8903

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
134 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 946 AM CDT THU MAR 15 2012/

DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER
70S. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THIS MORNING AND THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING
NORTHEAST. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM WESTERN ARKANSAS
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO REMOVE MORNING
WORDING BUT NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CDT THU MAR 15 2012/

ANOTHER WARM NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
BREEZES AND INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW UPPER 50S DOTTED
ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN THE ONGOING
THINKING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CURRENT WATER VAPOR SHOWS NEXT
SHORTWAVE TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE NOW MOVING INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS ENERGY WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON REACHING THE TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEY LATER THIS EVENING. THIS TRIGGER COUPLED WITH AFTERNOON CAPE
VALUES EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG...AND LAPSE RATES AS STEEP AS 8C SHOULD
LEAD TO SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. ISOLATED ELEVATED STORMS
MAY DEVELOP THIS MORNING...BUT BY 18Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NO
CAP ALLOWING CONVECTION TO TRANSITION TO SURFACE BASED. COVERAGE
LOOKS GREATEST NORTH OF INTERSTATE FORTY...HOWEVER THAT
FOCUS/ORGANIZATION APPEARS TO SHIFT SOUTH DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS TOWARDS GREATER INSTABILITY. THEREFORE...HAVE
DECIDED TO PUT THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIND SHEAR PROFILES ARE WEAK...SO MAIN
THREATS WILL BE WIND AND HAIL. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE NEAR RECORD
VALUES...WITH MANY LOCATIONS TOPPING 80F.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THIS PERIOD
WITH THE MIDSOUTH CONTINUING TO SEE WEAK DISTURBANCES IN AN UPPER
SOUTHWEST FLOW. THOUGH THE CAP STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SO HAVE LEFT RAIN CHANCES FURTHER WEST AND NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FIFTEEN TO TWENTY DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MID MARCH.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A VERY MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL BE SEEN OVER THE
U.S. WITH A DEEP TROUGH IN THE WEST AND RIDGE IN THE EAST. BOTH
THE LATEST GFS AND EURO ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BOTH 500MB HEIGHT
PLACEMENT AND TIMING. FOR THE MIDSOUTH RECORD TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FELT WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER AFTERNOON RH'S. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL AND MORE CONFINED TO ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
WHERE THE CAP WILL BE WEAKER.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LONG RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE APPROACHING WESTERN TROUGH BECOMING CUTOFF AS IT MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG SOUTH TO NORTH MOISTURE FEED
WILL BE IN PLACE FROM TEXAS INTO IOWA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS
PERIOD. THE EURO HAS THIS PRECIPITATION INCHING ITS WAY TO THE
MIDSOUTH BY LATE TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS ABOUT 9 HOURS SLOWER. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY AS THE CUTOFF LOW
LINGERS IN THE ARKLATEX. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER WITH A WATCHFUL EYE ON POTENTIAL FLOODING.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
LOCATIONS THAT GET DIRECTLY IMPACTED BY THUNDERSTORMS. IN THIS
SITUATION...CIGS WOULD DROP TO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN A DIRECT IMPACT AT ANY TAF SITE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.
MAINTAINED VCTS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY DIMINISH THIS EVENING BUT THERE STILL MAY
BE SOME STORM ACTIVITY THEREFORE MAINTAINED A CB GROUP. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL DEVELOP AGAIN ON FRIDAY. LIGHT WINDS
WILL PERSIST TONIGHT THEN INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
FRIDAY MORNING.

JLH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  65  82  63  82 /  30  20  10  20
MKL  60  80  57  82 /  40  30  20  20
JBR  60  79  59  79 /  30  30  20  30
TUP  61  81  59  84 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
316 AM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-161030-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
316 AM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

JAB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
142 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

TNZ090-151915-
HARDEMAN TN-
142 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 215 PM CDT FOR...

  HARDEMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS AT LEAST
40 MPH WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BOLIVAR AT 142 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN HARDEMAN COUNTY...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR BOLIVAR AND
CHICKASAW STATE FOREST...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3509 8907 3525 8917 3543 8886 3524 8878
      3523 8878
TIME...MOT...LOC 1842Z 237DEG 16KT 3522 8902

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
151 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

TNZ089-090-151915-
FAYETTE TN-HARDEMAN TN-
151 PM CDT THU MAR 15 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 215 PM CDT FOR...

  SOUTHEASTERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  WEST CENTRAL HARDEMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS
AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF LAGRANGE AT 152 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN FAYETTE AND HARDEMAN COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3509 8906 3499 8927 3500 8930 3509 8939
      3526 8917
TIME...MOT...LOC 1852Z 228DEG 18KT 3510 8923