Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Memphis, TN

454 
WWUS54 KMEG 012214
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
414 PM CST WED FEB 1 2012

ARC077-107-012245-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0040.000000T0000Z-120201T2245Z/
LEE AR-PHILLIPS AR-
414 PM CST WED FEB 1 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CST
FOR PHILLIPS AND SOUTH CENTRAL LEE COUNTIES...

AT 414 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES WEST OF TURKEY SCRATCH
TO 6 MILES WEST OF CREIGH TO 18 MILES WEST OF WHITE RIVER NATIONAL
WILDLIFE REFUGE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM HOLLY GROVE TO 12
MILES SOUTHEAST OF HOLLY GROVE TO GILLETT...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ELAINE...LAKE
VIEW...MARVELL...WEST HELENA...QUARLES...SPRING CREEK...VINEYARD...
TURKEY SCRATCH...CREIGH...CYPERT...GOBELL...LAMBROOK...RATIO AND
CATRON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

&&

LAT...LON 3415 9109 3419 9110 3422 9107 3429 9108
      3434 9105 3435 9101 3446 9101 3448 9106
      3470 9106 3462 9060 3440 9072 3422 9089
      3425 9091 3424 9094 3420 9092 3411 9100
      3411 9112
TIME...MOT...LOC 2214Z 282DEG 39KT 3463 9108 3443 9108
          3419 9135

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
320 PM CST WED FEB 1 2012

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED OUT RATHER WELL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REACH 70+
DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW 60S ALONG EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA
REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL
ARKANSAS BASICALLY ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY TO THE EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TAPPING INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE PASSING OF A WEAK H5
SHORTWAVE AND RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AROUND 8 C/KM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA THIS EVENING AND
NEARLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THIS COULD YIELD A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL QUICKLY FILL IN BEHIND THE
PASSING SYSTEM OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI WHERE REMAINING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHTER WINDS MAY YIELD FOG. OTHERWISE
THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE WASHED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ANOTHER BROAD H5 TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST AND INTO THE GREAT PLAINS.
CONCURRENTLY...THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY MORNING AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT TRIES TO SURGE
NORTH. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH REGARD
TO TIMING AND INTENSITY. PROXIMITY OF THE BEST UPPER DYNAMICS AND
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WARM SECTOR ARE THE TWO MAIN LIMITING
FACTORS WITH REGARD TO SEVERE POTENTIAL.

FROM THIS POINT ON THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. SUNDAY THROUGH
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK THE GFS SWEEPS THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE EAST
COAST ABSORBING IT INTO THE MEAN UPPER FLOW. THIS ALLOWS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE...DRY CONDITIONS...AND MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
FILTER ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. THE ECMWF HOWEVER TRIES TO OCCLUDE THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ESSENTIALLY
STALLING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...THUS KEEPING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. TRENDED WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME AWAITING BETTER LONG
TERM MODEL AGREEMENT.

CCD

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE MID SOUTH AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SOME DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THUS...WILL KEEP CB/VCTS MENTION IN TAFS THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN TONIGHT WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING AS NORTHEAST WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 7 KTS AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

CJC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  51  67  51  67 /  20  10  10  70
MKL  45  67  43  66 /  20   0  10  70
JBR  45  63  44  58 /  10   0  10  70
TUP  52  70  48  67 /  30  10  10  70

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
349 PM CST WED FEB 1 2012

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-030000-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
349 PM CST WED FEB 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY ALONG AND
SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM WYNNE ARKANSAS TO MEMPHIS TO CHARLESTON
MISSISSIPPI. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

CCD