Severe Thunderstorm Warning 210, NWS Memphis, TN

445 
WWUS54 KMEG 031751
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1251 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

MSC081-117-145-031800-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0210.000000T0000Z-120603T1800Z/
UNION MS-PRENTISS MS-LEE MS-
1251 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN LEE...SOUTHWESTERN PRENTISS AND SOUTHEASTERN UNION
COUNTIES...

AT 1251 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR JUG
FORK...OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BALDWYN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BALDWYN...
BLUE SPRINGS...GRAHAM...REESE...FAIRFIELD...ELLISTOWN...BRANYAN...
ALPINE...JERICHO...BETHANY...CORRONA...GRAVES...BOGGAN BEND AND JUG
FORK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

&&

LAT...LON 3446 8852 3446 8854 3443 8854 3426 8862
      3435 8883 3437 8883 3437 8889 3438 8892
      3456 8880 3452 8850
TIME...MOT...LOC 1751Z 294DEG 27KT 3442 8875

$$


RRH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
945 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

.UPDATE...

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE
WARM FRONT FROM SRN MO INTO NCTRL/NERN AR. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING TO THE ESE ALONG THIS FRONT
ACROSS SWRN TN AND NERN MS. THE ACTIVITY OVER NERN AR IS BEING
ENHANCED BY AN MCV OVER NERN OK. THINK ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE DAY AS THIS MCV PUSHES EAST
INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR
SHOULD KEEP STORMS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...BUT A FEW MAY STILL
APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS GIVEN STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ASSOCIATED WITH ADVANCING EML.

INCREASED POPS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS WHERE
ONGOING CONVECTION MAY EXPAND INVOF MCV.

BORGHOFF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/

DISCUSSION...

A LARGE SCALE BLOCKING PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER
48 TODAY AND THIS OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST INTO NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE MID SOUTH POSITIONED BENEATH FASTER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM LOW
PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. THIS WARM FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN A WARMER AND MUCH MORE HUMID
AIRMASS...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S
SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THE AIRMASS SHOULD DESTABILIZE WITH SURFACE
HEATING LATER TODAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT AS IT LIFTS
NORTHWARD. MLCAPES SHOULD INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG...LI/S
WILL RANGE FROM -6C TO -10C...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
APPROACH 7.0 C/KM NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. RELATIVELY LOW MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS AND MINIMAL CAPPING NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD
ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS TO FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE ORDER OF
30-40 KTS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WOULD ALLOW ANY STORMS THAT CAN
DEVELOP TO APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

BY LATE THIS EVENING...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
WESTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE EAST AND HELP TO INITIATE
NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
(MCS) WHICH WILL MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WARM FRONT
INTO THE MID SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN
QUITE UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE STALLING WARM
FRONT WHICH SHOULD POSITION ITSELF ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG...LI/S
WILL REMAIN BETWEEN -3C AND -6C...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR 7.0 C/KM. THIS UNSTABLE AIRMASS COMBINED WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR BETWEEN 30-40 KTS...SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CONTINUED AND
POSSIBLY EXPANDING THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT. THE
GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS. THERE
MAY ALSO BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. IT APPEARS AT THIS
TIME THAT THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE RATHER LOW...SO PLAN TO
REMOVE WORDING FROM THE LATEST HWO.

THE MCS SHOULD BE EXITING THE FORECAST AREA AND MOVING INTO MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN ALABAMA BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX SHOULD SEND A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS OUR
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WANES. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DESTABILIZE ONCE AGAIN
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 40 AS ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVES
OVER THE BOUNDARY. ONCE AGAIN...INSTABILITY LEVELS AND SUFFICIENT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE EVENTUALLY
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

ANOTHER STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH ON TUESDAY HELPING TO SEND A SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY STALL OUT EITHER ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OR EVEN FURTHER SOUTH.
THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF MODEL SPREAD WITH REGARD TO THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SHORTWAVE ON TUESDAY AND EVENTUAL SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE FRONT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WAVE AND ADVANCES THE FRONT INTO A POSITION
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE LATEST ECMWF MAINTAINS ITS
TREND OF A WEAKER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND TENDS TO STALL THE
FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THE EURO MODEL
INTRODUCES ADDITIONAL SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY BY MID WEEK WHICH
TRIGGERS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES
POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THURSDAY UNTIL
MODEL GUIDANCE LOCKS ON TO A PARTICULAR SOLUTION.

THE FRONT IS FINALLY PUSHED SOUTH OF THE ENTIRE AREA BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
FROM THE NORTH WITH BUILDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BY THE WEEKEND.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH TAF SITES TODAY WITH THE
BEST TIME FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR
MAINLY AFTER 19Z...ESPECIALLY AT MEM/JBR.  THUS...ADDED TEMPOS
BETWEEN 21-23Z AT THESE LOCATIONS WITH PREVAILING VCTS AT ALL
SITES. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED
LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 04/06Z AS A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS UPSTREAM ACROSS MISSOURI AND DROPS INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. ADDED VCTS IN
AT MEM...MKL...JBR TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW WITH TIMING TO INCLUDE TEMPOS
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL WITH ONLY REDUCTIONS OCCURRING WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS.

CJC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  88  71  89  70 /  40  50  50  30
MKL  88  67  85  65 /  40  60  60  30
JBR  89  69  88  67 /  10  60  50  30
TUP  89  69  89  69 /  20  40  50  40

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1139 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-041200-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
1139 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
MIDSOUTH. A WARM FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE MID SOUTH TODAY WITH THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMING UNSTABLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LIKELIHOOD OF MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES
TONIGHT AS A COMPLEX DEVELOPS OVER MISSOURI AND PUSHES SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. SOME STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE  EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND
INTERACT WITH AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

BORGHOFF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1034 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

MSZ001-002-031600-
MARSHALL MS-DE SOTO MS-
1034 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1100 AM CDT FOR...

  NORTHEASTERN DESOTO COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER WAS LOCATED
OVER OLIVE BRANCH AT 1034 AM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN DESOTO AND MARSHALL COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR
OLIVE BRANCH...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3499 8942 3477 8946 3484 8994 3500 8991
TIME...MOT...LOC 1534Z 277DEG 24KT 3492 8981

RRH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1140 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

MSZ002-003-031715-
BENTON MS-MARSHALL MS-
1140 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1215 PM CDT FOR...

  WEST CENTRAL BENTON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  CENTRAL MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER WAS LOCATED
OVER BYHALIA AT 1140 AM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN BENTON AND MARSHALL COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR
HOLLY SPRINGS...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3464 8931 3478 8972 3487 8972 3492 8969
      3485 8924
TIME...MOT...LOC 1640Z 285DEG 25KT 3483 8965

RRH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1216 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

MSZ003-009-014-016-031745-
BENTON MS-UNION MS-PRENTISS MS-LEE MS-
1216 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1245 PM CDT FOR...

  SOUTH CENTRAL BENTON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHWESTERN LEE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  SOUTHWESTERN PRENTISS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  UNION COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER WAS LOCATED 6
MILES NORTHWEST OF NEW ALBANY AT 1216 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN BENTON...LEE...PRENTISS AND UNION COUNTIES...INCLUDING
LOCATIONS NEAR BALDWYN AND NEW ALBANY...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3430 8868 3451 8922 3463 8913 3462 8909
      3460 8908 3460 8900 3452 8859
TIME...MOT...LOC 1716Z 289DEG 31KT 3453 8905

RRH