Severe Thunderstorm Warning 195, NWS Memphis, TN

492 
WWUS54 KMEG 301947
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
247 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

MSC135-161-302015-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0195.000000T0000Z-120530T2015Z/
YALOBUSHA MS-TALLAHATCHIE MS-
247 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM CDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL TALLAHATCHIE AND CENTRAL YALOBUSHA COUNTIES...

AT 247 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
CHARLESTON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO CHARLESTON...
TILLATOBA...ROSEBLOOM...BRYANT AND GUMS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

&&

LAT...LON 3386 9002 3402 9007 3417 8961 3394 8953
      3389 8984 3389 8992 3388 8992
TIME...MOT...LOC 1947Z 254DEG 26KT 3396 8994

$$

559 
WWUS54 KMEG 302005
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
305 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

MSC135-161-302015-
/O.CAN.KMEG.SV.W.0195.000000T0000Z-120530T2015Z/
YALOBUSHA MS-TALLAHATCHIE MS-
305 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL TALLAHATCHIE AND
YALOBUSHA COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

AT 305 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE 
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED...AND NO 
LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. THEREFORE...THE 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS CANCELLED.

.CONTINUE TO MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS AS FUTURE WARNINGS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR YOUR AREA.

.A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALERT
AREA.

LAT...LON 3386 9002 3402 9007 3417 8961 3394 8953
      3389 8984 3389 8992 3388 8992
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 254DEG 26KT 3398 8978

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1238 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

.UPDATE...
AFTER COORDINATION WITH SPC... SEVERE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
EAST CENTRAL AR AND MUCH OF NORTH MS. RADAR SHOWED A STRONG TO
SEVERE LINE LIFTING INTO EAST CENTRAL AR...RIDING ALONG AN OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ORGANIZED BY SOUTHERN MO/SOUTHERN IL SHORTWAVE.

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT DROPPED INTO WEST TN EARLIER THIS MORNING
HAS LED A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MEMPHIS AREA.

PWB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1223 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012/

UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED OVER NORTHEAST AR AT MIDMORNING.
OVERALL A DECREASING INTENSITY TREND WAS SHOWN BY RADAR...THOUGH A
FEW STRONGER CELLS WERE NOTED OVER NORTH CENTRAL AR. THE STORMS
HAD FORMED ON THE NOSE OF A LOW LEVEL THETA E RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN
AR... AND WERE AIDED BY A SHORTWAVE TROF EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...LIFTING EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN MO.

FORECAST WAS RECENTLY UPDATED TO LOWER TEMPS OVER NORTHEAST AR AND
PORTIONS OF WEST TN...WHERE AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE AFFECTED BY
THE COLD POOL FROM THIS MORNING/S STORMS. OTHER UPDATES INCLUDED A
BUMP IN POPS INTO NORTHWEST TN... WHERE OUTFLOW SHOULD STALL NEAR
PEAK AFTERNOON SURFACE HEATING.

PWB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 708 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012/

UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012/

DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON TEMPS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE LOW 60S. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING
UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE DECAYING MCS OVER EASTERN OK...SWRN
MO...WRN AR...AND NERN TX. SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS HAVE FAILED RATHER
MISERABLY IN THEIR DEPICTION OF THIS MCS IN THE 06Z-12Z TIME FRAME
HAVING IT DISPLACED MUCH TOO FAR NORTH. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
STORMS HAVE ALSO FIRED RECENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL AR. MESOSCALE
MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR HAVE PERFORMED MUCH BETTER AND WILL FOLLOW
THOSE FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS TODAY. THAT BEING SAID...THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS MCS IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO LOUISIANA THIS
MORNING. ITS RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
EAST/NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
AN UNCAPPED...MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME STORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS ERN
AR...SWRN TN...NWRN MS THIS AFTERNOON. BUMPED UP POPS INTO THE
30-40 PCT RANGE THERE WITH DIMINISHING POPS TO THE EAST. LARGE
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AT THE SURFACE AS TEMPERATURES RISE AGAIN
INTO THE LOW 90S MAY LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS WITH SOME OF THESE
STORMS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL BE FORMING OVER OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI THURSDAY MORNING. ROBUST
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY ACROSS OKLAHOMA
WHICH WILL GROW INTO ANOTHER MCS TONIGHT. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW
FAR EAST THIS MCS WILL TRACK OVERNIGHT...SOME INDICATIONS SUGGEST
IT MAY REACH EASTERN ARKANSAS LATE. THEREFORE...KEPT MODERATE CHC
POPS ACROSS THAT REGION.

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY
AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD A WARM/MOIST WARM SECTOR.
WHILE WIND SHEAR REMAINS LOW AT LEAST EARLY...MODERATELY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE. THE
RISK OF SEVERE WILL INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS
JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MAY SEE MESSY CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS
EVENTUALLY FORM A SQUALL LINE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AFTER
21Z-00Z WITH ATTENDANT WIND DAMAGE THREAT. LOW LEVEL FLOW/VEERING
DOES NOT APPEAR SUPPORTIVE FOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT SO WILL REMOVE
THAT THREAT FROM THE HWO.

GFS STILL LAGS BACK WITH THE COLD FRONT...WITH ALL OTHER LARGE
SCALE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DRYING THINGS OUT BY 12Z FRIDAY.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BRING A REFRESHING FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER
40S/MID 50S.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

WAA RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND AS A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS
BEGINS TO BUILD EASTWARD. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE RIDGE
AXIS A BIT WESTWARD WITH RECENT RUNS AND NOW KEEPS THE MIDSOUTH IN
A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A PESKY WEAK FRONT REMAINING IN PLACE.
THUS...SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED FOR
SUNDAY AND BEYOND. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK WARM...UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S.

BORGHOFF

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

STRENGTHENING LINE OF CONVECTION BETWEEN MEM AND LZK WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAIN THREAT FOR THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL RIDE ALONG I-40 AND POINTS SOUTH. HAVE
PLACED TEMPO FOR THUNDER IN AT MEM AND LATER FOR TUP AS CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY TRACK ACROSS ALL OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. HEAVIEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DROP CONDITIONS
DOWN TO MVFR...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE. JBR
INITIALLY WILL SEE VCTS AND TEMPO SHOWERS...WHILE MORE STABLE AIR
WILL LIKELY KEEP MKL OUT OF THE THREAT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE WILL CONTINUE AT MEM...MKL...AND JBR AND
EVENTUALLY TUP WILL SEE A NORTH WIND SHIFT AHEAD OF THE LINE OF
STORMS.

STORMS WILL DIMINISH AND SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND
THE LINE...WITH LIGHT WINDS BY EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER CENTRAL
PLAINS CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE NEXT THREAT FOR STORMS.

JAB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  73  82  56  74 /  30  90  50  10
MKL  66  81  55  71 /  30  80  70  10
JBR  69  77  54  74 /  40  90  30  10
TUP  69  86  58  73 /  20  60  80  20

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1212 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-311145-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
1212 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM WEST MEMPHIS ARKANSAS...TO HOLLY SPRINGS AND
TUPELO MISSISSIPPI. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. DAMAGING WIND IS
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS...ALTHOUGH SOME HAIL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.

BORGHOFF/PWB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1227 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

ARZ058-301815-
PHILLIPS AR-
1227 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 115 PM CDT FOR...

  SOUTHERN PHILLIPS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 13 MILES WEST OF WHITE RIVER NATIONAL
WILDLIFE REFUGE AT 1227 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN PHILLIPS COUNTY...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR ELAINE AND WHITE
RIVER NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3415 9109 3419 9110 3422 9107 3430 9108
      3434 9105 3435 9101 3446 9100 3445 9070
      3423 9089 3425 9091 3424 9094 3419 9092
      3411 9099 3412 9112
TIME...MOT...LOC 1727Z 225DEG 25KT 3418 9128

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1235 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

ARZ048-049-301800-
LEE AR-ST. FRANCIS AR-
1235 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 100 PM CDT FOR...

  NORTHWESTERN LEE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  WESTERN ST. FRANCIS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WHEATLEY AT 1235 PM
CDT...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN LEE AND ST. FRANCIS COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR
FORREST CITY AND PALESTINE...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3500 9116 3501 9106 3515 9105 3514 9077
      3490 9077 3486 9112 3490 9113 3491 9115
      3491 9116
TIME...MOT...LOC 1735Z 263DEG 21KT 3486 9118

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
134 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

MSZ007-010-011-020-301915-
TUNICA MS-TALLAHATCHIE MS-QUITMAN MS-COAHOMA MS-
134 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 215 PM CDT FOR...

  EASTERN COAHOMA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  QUITMAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  WEST CENTRAL TALLAHATCHIE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  SOUTHERN TUNICA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 4 MILES WEST OF JONESTOWN AT 134 PM CDT...
MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN COAHOMA...QUITMAN...TALLAHATCHIE AND TUNICA COUNTIES...
INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR CLARKSDALE...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY. THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT ALSO INCLUDES BEAVERDAM
LAKE...FLOWER LAKE...MOON LAKE AND TUNICA LAKE.

&&

LAT...LON 3452 9053 3463 9057 3463 9033 3455 9020
      3425 9020 3399 9029 3398 9066
TIME...MOT...LOC 1834Z 268DEG 37KT 3432 9047

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
203 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

MSZ011-012-020-301945-
TALLAHATCHIE MS-QUITMAN MS-PANOLA MS-
203 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 245 PM CDT FOR...

  WESTERN PANOLA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  QUITMAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  TALLAHATCHIE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED OVER BELEN AT 204 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.

PEOPLE IN PANOLA...QUITMAN AND TALLAHATCHIE COUNTIES...INCLUDING
LOCATIONS NEAR BATESVILLE AND CHARLESTON...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY. THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT ALSO INCLUDES ARKABUTLA LAKE.

&&

LAT...LON 3426 9041 3426 9040 3442 9039 3441 9030
      3451 9031 3451 9020 3455 9019 3456 8992
      3382 8993 3381 9045
TIME...MOT...LOC 1904Z 256DEG 22KT 3429 9031

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
207 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     TSTM WND GST     CLARKSDALE              34.20N 90.58W
05/30/2012  E60.00 MPH       COAHOMA            MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            POWER AND TRAFFIC LIGHTS OUT IN CITY DUE TO DOWN TREE
            LIMBS ON POWER LINES.

&&

JAB