Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Memphis, TN

136 
WWUS54 KMEG 312022
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
322 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012

TNC071-312100-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0111.000000T0000Z-120331T2100Z/
HARDIN TN-
322 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN HARDIN COUNTY...

AT 323 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
BRUTON BRANCH...OR NEAR PICKWICK LANDING STATE PARK...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MADDOX...
POLLARDS MILL...BRUTON BRANCH AND PICKWICK LANDING STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

&&

LAT...LON 3500 8799 3500 8808 3500 8809 3499 8810
      3500 8821 3511 8827 3517 8822 3502 8798
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 325DEG 11KT 3509 8822

$$

035 
WWUS54 KMEG 312038
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
338 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012

TNC071-312100-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0111.000000T0000Z-120331T2100Z/
HARDIN TN-
338 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN HARDIN COUNTY...

AT 325 PM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING 
HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF PICKWICK DAM.  THIS STORM 
WAS LOCATED NEAR BRUTON BRANCH...OR NEAR PICKWICK LANDING STATE 
PARK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THIS STORM HAS INTENSIFIED AND 
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE PING PONG SIZE HAIL.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO POLLARDS MILL
AND BRUTON BRANCH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

&&

LAT...LON 3509 8822 3513 8817 3502 8798 3500 8799
      3500 8809 3499 8810 3500 8821
TIME...MOT...LOC 2037Z 325DEG 11KT 3507 8817

$$

292 
WWUS54 KMEG 312052
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
352 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012

TNC071-312102-
/O.EXP.KMEG.SV.W.0111.000000T0000Z-120331T2100Z/
HARDIN TN-
352 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN HARDIN COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 400 PM CDT...

AT 352 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA
AND WEAKENED. THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3509 8822 3513 8817 3502 8798 3500 8799
      3500 8809 3499 8810 3500 8821
TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 325DEG 11KT 3503 8814

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
233 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF WEST TENNESSEE AND EXTREME NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND POINTS
EASTWARD. FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING NEAR THE TENNESSEE
RIVER...HOWEVER THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WERE SOUTH OF NASHVILLE.
THIS ACTIVITY WAS JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED WITH TWO DISTINCT MINOR SHORTWAVES DROPPING SOUTHEAST
IN AN UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WERE
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S...YIELDING A WIDE CUMULUS FIELD OVER THE AREA. CAPE VALUES OFF
SPC MESOANALYSIS AT 2PM WERE 3500 J/KG OVER THE WATCH AREA.

REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MID EVENING HOURS AS A
SECOND SHORTWAVE IN CENTRAL MISSOURI TRACKS OVER THE REGION. STILL
IN QUESTION IS OVERALL COVERAGE...BUT FEEL THE BEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS WILL BE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SOME OF THESE STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING. ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE DOWN LATER THIS EVENING WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AREAS OF
FOG WILL AGAIN DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE...WHICH MAY PROMPT A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE MIDSOUTH WEATHER...WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S. A STRAY SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI..BUT LEAVE ANY MENTION
OUT OF THE UPCOMING FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE AREA WILL BE
DRY...WITH HEAT INDICIES REACHING INTO THE LOW 90S. FURTHER WEST AN
APPROACHING MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES WITH
MODELS SHOWING THE ENERGY BECOMING CUTOFF OVER NEW MEXICO ON MONDAY.
HAVE LOWERED POPS MONDAY NIGHT AS MODEL TENDENCIES HAVE CONTINUED
TO SLOW THIS FEATURE...SO INCREASING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE LIKELY
TO BE THE ONLY IMPACT MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HAVE KEPT CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD DESPITE THE CHANGING CUTOFF LOW PLACEMENT/TIMING FROM THE
MODELS...AS A MODEST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DEVELOP ALOFT. EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY TRIGGERING CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE BOOSTED TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES
AS SKY COVER WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN. A RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS STILL REMAINS FAVORABLE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT MAY
EXTEND INTO THURSDAY AS MODELS DIFFER ON THE LOW CENTER TRACK.
CURRENTLY THE EURO AND CANADIAN RUNS TAKE THE LOW OVER THE
MIDSOUTH WHILE THE GFS NOW TAKES IT NORTH THROUGH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS SHOW A RIDGE
BUILDING BACK IN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST BEGINNING
EARLY FRIDAY. HAVE THE AREA DRY BOTH DAYS... HOWEVER THE GFS DOES
TRY TO BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 80F WITH LOWS NEAR 60F.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

A CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS A VERY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WHICH IS CURRENTLY STILL WEAKLY CAPPED ACROSS THE AREA
IS IN PLACE. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE TO DETERMINE WHEN AND EVEN IF
THE CAP BREAKS AND RESULTANT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. AT THIS
POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE INCLUDING
KMKL. EVEN HERE...NOT SURE WHETHER COVERAGE WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRENT A TEMPO. PLAN TO CARRY VCTS AT KMKL AND CB ELSEWHERE. ALSO
WILL KEEP PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BECOME SEVERE
CONSIDERING THAT MLCAPES ARE CURRENTLY APPROACHING 3000
J/KG...LI/S TO -10C...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 8.0
C/KM. THIS WOULD RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINDS GREATER
THAN 60 MPH AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL /GOLFBALL OR
LARGER/ IN AREAS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND BECOME SEVERE. IF
ANY OF THESE STORMS IMPACT A TAF SITE...CONDITIONS WOULD
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY WITH A RESULTANT HAZARD TO LOCAL AVIATION.
AGAIN...THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE NEAR KMKL
AND EVEN HERE COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED.

ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES DEVELOPING. PATCHY FOG MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE STORMS OCCUR. ANY FOG COULD REDUCE VSBYS
TO MVFR.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BY MID MORNING SUNDAY AFTER FOG
MIXES OUT. NO CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

JLH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  67  88  67  87 /  40   0   0  10
MKL  59  88  62  88 /  50  10   0  10
JBR  63  88  64  88 /  20   0   0  10
TUP  62  87  63  87 /  50  10   0  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
246 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-012200-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
246 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI. MAINLY EAST OF A TRENTON TENNESSEE
TO A HOLLY SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI LINE. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS
AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME
WEST TENNESSEE...NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY SEVERE STORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING.

JAB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
309 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012

TNZ092-312045-
HARDIN TN-
309 PM CDT SAT MAR 31 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 345 PM CDT FOR...

  SOUTHERN HARDIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING DIME SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS AT
LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTH OF PICKWICK DAM AT 309 PM
CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

PEOPLE IN HARDIN COUNTY...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR PICKWICK LANDING
STATE PARK...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

.A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ADVISORY
AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3500 8799 3500 8821 3516 8832 3520 8825
      3502 8798 3501 8798
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 324DEG 11KT 3514 8826