River Flood Advisory 4, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
944 AM CST WED JAN 25 2012

.UPDATE...

SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL...AND WESTERN TENNESSEE. MODELS ARE SHOWING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER TEXAS AND WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST. FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO UPDATE IS NEEDED
TO GRIDS.

RRH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 719 AM CST WED JAN 25 2012/

UPDATE...WARM FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS MORNING IS
BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF MOVING NORTH...AND TOWARDS THE MID
SOUTH LATER TODAY. BASED ON LATEST CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND
THE RUC INDICATING INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...INCREASED MENTION OF ELEVATED THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

UPDATED GRIDS ALREADY PUBLISHED.

CJC

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 456 AM CST WED JAN 25 2012/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/UPPER AIR PROFILER TRENDS THIS
MORNING PLACE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR EL PASO TEXAS WITH A SURFACE
LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANTONIO TEXAS. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THIS SURFACE LOW UP TO WACO TEXAS AND THEN BACK
TOWARDS THE LOUISIANA/ALABAMA COAST AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE. CLOUDY
SKIES AND RAIN ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH AS OF THIS
MORNING/S FORECAST ISSUANCE. AS OF 4 AM CST...TEMPERATURES RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
MID SOUTH AND MIDDLE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS AREAS SOUTH
OF I-40. THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THURSDAY MORNING INTO EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST.

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...RAIN HAS FINALLY
ARRIVED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH COURTESY OF ISENTROPIC
ASCENT LIFTING GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE AND PRODUCING OVERRUNNING
RAIN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY SITUATED ALONG THE
LOUISIANA/ALABAMA COAST THIS MORNING. MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH THIS OVERRUNNING RAIN OCCURRING THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE ENTIRE MID SOUTH. THE ABOVE MENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN
LIFTING NORTH TODAY...AND REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AS EARLY AS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW BEGIN TO
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. KEPT LOWER POPS
ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON AS BEST COVERAGE BY
FAR WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN LOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER...DID ADD ISOLATED THUNDER
FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI
FOR LATE AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS TO FAR NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BISECT THE MID SOUTH FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVE JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. DESPITE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE /LIFT/ AND
SHEAR...NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH QUALITY OF INSTABILITY FORECAST
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. BEST INSTABILITY AXIS WILL REMAIN JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS/EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER HAVE RESULTED IN LOW CONFIDENCE ON STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. NONETHELESS...DAY/EVENING
SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND ADJUST FORECAST AS NECESSARY
IF THIS INSTABILITY AXIS CREEPS FURTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY
INDICATED BY THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS.

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END THURSDAY NIGHT AS COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID SOUTH BY FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS
INDICATE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...ANALYSIS OF MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATES LOW LEVEL
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN NEARLY NON-EXISTENT AND WILL RESULT IN
SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. 00Z GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN AGAIN ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT. CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL RETURN BY NEXT TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

LIGHT RAIN IS FALLING OUT OF FAIRLY A FAIRLY HIGH CLOUD
DECK...RANGING FROM NEARLY 10000 FEET AT MKL TO 5000 FEET AT MEM.
CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER DURING THE DAY AND RAIN WILL BECOME
HEAVIER. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES TODAY WITH MVFR
TO VFR VIS. AFTER SUNSET...IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED WITH POSSIBLE
LIFR CIGS TOWARD MORNING. INCLUDED TEMPO 400 FT CIGS AT JBR AND
MEM PRIOR TO SUNRISE LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
FROM THE EAST AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER EAST TEXAS.

JDS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  55  53  60  39 /  90 100 100  50
MKL  52  49  59  38 / 100  90 100  50
JBR  46  44  49  35 / 100 100 100  30
TUP  62  57  69  42 /  70  80 100  70

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
457 AM CST WED JAN 25 2012

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-261300-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
457 AM CST WED JAN 25 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

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