Frost Advisory 6, NWS Memphis, TN

208 
WWUS74 KMEG 290208
NPWMEG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
908 PM CDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...WIDESPREAD FROST EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE MIDSOUTH...

.THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES COOLING TO THE
MID 30S WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A
JONESBORO ARKANSAS TO PARIS TENNESSEE LINE.

ARZ008-009-017-018-026-MOZ113-115-TNZ001>004-291300-
/O.CON.KMEG.FR.Y.0006.121029T0900Z-121029T1300Z/
RANDOLPH-CLAY-LAWRENCE-GREENE-CRAIGHEAD-DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT-LAKE-
OBION-WEAKLEY-HENRY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WALNUT RIDGE...PARAGOULD...JONESBORO...
KENNETT...CARUTHERSVILLE...UNION CITY...MARTIN...DRESDEN...PARIS
908 PM CDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM CDT
MONDAY...

* TEMPERATURE/FROST COVERAGE...LOWS IN THE MID 30S WILL ALLOW 
  AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP. 

* TIMING...FROM 4AM TO 8AM MONDAY MORNING

* IMPACTS...TENDER PLANTS AND REMAINING UNHARVESTED AGRICULTURAL 
  VEGETATION WILL SUBJECTED TO NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$

846 
WWUS74 KMEG 291312
NPWMEG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
812 AM CDT MON OCT 29 2012

ARZ008-009-017-018-026-MOZ113-115-TNZ001>004-291415-
/O.EXP.KMEG.FR.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-121029T1300Z/
RANDOLPH-CLAY-LAWRENCE-GREENE-CRAIGHEAD-DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT-LAKE-
OBION-WEAKLEY-HENRY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WALNUT RIDGE...PARAGOULD...JONESBORO...
KENNETT...CARUTHERSVILLE...UNION CITY...MARTIN...DRESDEN...PARIS
812 AM CDT MON OCT 29 2012

...FROST ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM THIS MORNING ALONG WITH
INCREASING WINDS WHICH SHOULD ELIMINATE ANY REMAINING FROST.

$$

JLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
302 PM CDT SUN OCT 28 2012

.DISCUSSION...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING MIDSOUTH FORECAST AS THE
MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT ABOUT THE INTENSITY...TRACK AND TIMING
OF SANDY...AND THEREFORE THE LACK OF MOVEMENT OF THE CURRENT SURFACE
RIDGE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. THIS THINKING WILL PLACE THE
MIDSOUTH ON THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE CIRCULATION THROUGH TUESDAY.
925MB WINDS HAVE BEEN RANGING FROM 20 TO 25 KTS TODAY...AND
FORECASTED TO INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 KTS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
NIGHT. THUS A REPEAT FROM LAST NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH SURFACE WIND
SPEEDS DIMINISHING LATE THIS EVENING TO THE 5-8KT RANGE JUST ENOUGH
TO KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE FREEZING. WILL
BE PLACING A FROST ADVISORY OUT FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AS THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
GREATER AREAS OF FROST. ELSEWHERE...PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED WITH BREEZY NORTH
WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. BELIEVE WINDS WILL
REMAIN STOUT ENOUGH AGAIN FOR MONDAY NIGHT TO PRECLUDE ANY FREEZING
TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA. MODELS SHOW SANDY FULLY TRANSITIONED TO
AN EXTRA-TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY AND BEGINNING TO SLOWLY FILL.
THIS MAY ALLOW THE SURFACE RIDGE TO MOVE FARTHER OVERHEAD AND
LOWERING THE SURFACE WINDS. TEMPERATURES WOULD THEN HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE TO DIP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW...COMBINED WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TOWARDS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY MILDER HIGH TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY
WEATHER FOR THE MIDSOUTH. LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING MAY
FLIRT WITH 32F IN THE KNOWN COLDER MIDSOUTH LOCATIONS. HIGHS BY
FRIDAY SHOULD CLIMB CLOSER TO 70F FOR THE AREA...AS WINDS TURN
TOWARDS THE SOUTH.

EXTENDED...MOISTURE AND A CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BEGIN RETURNING TO
THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS THE GFS AND EURO INDICATE 60+ DEWPOINTS
SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT IS STILL IN QUESTION...SO HAVE LEFT IN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAIN FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH HIGHS REMAINING NEAR 70F.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
GUSTS EXPECTED MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MID TO LATE MORNING
MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN THE BUILDING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND HURRICANE SANDY.

JLH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  37  57  37  60 /   0   0   0   0
MKL  34  56  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
JBR  35  56  34  60 /   0   0   0   0
TUP  35  58  34  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
344 AM CDT SUN OCT 28 2012

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-291045-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
344 AM CDT SUN OCT 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

AREAS OF MORNING FROST AND FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THIS
WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

PWB