Areal Flood Advisory 21, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
632 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012/

DISCUSSION...

WATCHING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OUT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD
MAKE IT INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. MEANWHILE...THE COLD
FRONT NOW STRETCHES PEORIA ILLINOIS TO NEAR TULSA OKLAHOMA. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE MIDSOUTH AROUND 00Z(7 PM). EXPECT
A SQUALL LINE ALONG THE FRONT WHICH COULD BE SEVERE. DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE STORMS. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL POST-FRONTAL AND WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
JUST RAIN. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT.

SOME LINGERING RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE SATURDAY MORNING BUT THE RAIN WILL
QUICKLY CLEAR BY NOON. PLEASANT TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
THE WEEK. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AS MODELS SHOW A
REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WHILE THE LOWS WILL BE IN THE
50S. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST. SFC WINDS WILL TURN AROUND TO THE
SOUTH AND TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

KRM

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING FROM THE 18Z TAF UPDATE...AN
ISOLATED STORM AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE SHOULD APPROACH JBR WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR...BUT OVERALL THINKING IMPACT AT MEM...MKL AND
EVENTUALLY TUP WILL BE SLIGHTLY LATER THAT PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
A LINE OF SHRAS AND TSRAS ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. IFR
VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER TSRAS. AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF SHRAS WITH OCNL MVFR VSBYS. CIGS
WILL ALSO DETERIORATE AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE TO MVFR LEVELS. PRECIP
WILL TAPER OFF AND CLOUDS WILL SCT OUT FROM NW TO SE SATURDAY
MORNING. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW AT ALL SITES TOMORROW
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  67  78  57  82 / 100  20   0   0
MKL  68  76  52  80 / 100  30   0   0
JBR  63  77  54  81 / 100  10   0   0
TUP  71  79  56  81 /  90  60   0   0

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-ST.
     FRANCIS.

MO...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CALHOUN-COAHOMA-
     DESOTO-LAFAYETTE-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-
     TUNICA-YALOBUSHA.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR FAYETTE-LAUDERDALE-
     SHELBY-TIPTON.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
539 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-081100-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
539 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE MID SOUTH. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL
AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WEST TENNESSEE...NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING IN
SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
518 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

ARZ008-017-072245-
LAWRENCE AR-RANDOLPH AR-
518 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 545 PM CDT FOR...

  LAWRENCE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  SOUTH CENTRAL RANDOLPH COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR LARGER AND WINDS
BETWEEN 40 TO 50 MPH WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF ANNIEVILLE
AT 519 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
OCCUR WITH THIS  THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN LAWRENCE AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR
BLACK ROCK...HOXIE...LAKE CHARLES STATE PARK...POCAHONTAS AND WALNUT
RIDGE...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

.A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ADVISORY
AREA.

&&

LAT...LON 3624 9134 3625 9133 3625 9127 3629 9126
      3633 9096 3595 9096 3603 9136 3623 9136
TIME...MOT...LOC 2219Z 271DEG 12KT 3618 9129