Severe Thunderstorm Warning 24, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

480 
WWUS54 KMAF 272158
SVSMAF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
458 PM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012

TXC043-243-371-272230-
/O.CON.KMAF.SV.W.0024.000000T0000Z-120327T2230Z/
PECOS TX-BREWSTER TX-JEFF DAVIS TX-
458 PM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN JEFF DAVIS...NORTH CENTRAL BREWSTER AND WESTERN
PECOS COUNTIES...

AT 455 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR FORT STOCKTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...FORT
STOCKTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS... DEADLY CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. REMEMBER... IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER... YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK
SAFE SHELTER NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 3124 10312 3087 10254 3025 10339 3053 10378
      3076 10356
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 226DEG 19KT 3088 10292

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
216 PM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLD CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN DAVIS MTNS WHERE DWPNTS ARE IN T
40S/50S. CONTINUED DEVELOP IS EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW HRS ACROSS THE
TRANS PECOS...ESPECIALLY THE LOWER TRANS PECOS. STEEP LR/S...HIGH
CLOUDS BASES FAVORS HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE
SCATTERED (30%) POPS THERE INTO THE EVENING. FCST THE NEXT FEW
DAYS IS FOCUSED AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
DOES LOOK TO INCREASE WED/THUR. WATER VAPOR INDICATES AND BROAD
MID LEVEL TROF 500NM SW OF PRESIDIO ATTM. WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW TROF
WILL MOVE INVOF PRESIDIO BY MID WED AM. MEANWHILE SFC PRESSURE FALLS
OF 8MB ACRS ERN NM THRU THE DAY WILL HOLD LOW LEVEL MSTR FARTHER
W...M40S DWPNTS EVEN AS FAR W AS DAVIS MTNS AND WITH 7H-5H LR/S
AROUND 8.5 C/KM...CAPES AROUND 1J/KG ARE REASONABLE. THIS ALONG WITH
AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV TROF SEEN ON WATER VAPOR WHICH IS EVIDENT ON
NAM12/GFS ACRS TRANS PECOS FAVORS THE DEVELOPMENT OF TSRA WED PM...
ALBEIT SOMEWHAT UNSEASONAL FOR DAVIS MTNS TO GET RAIN THIS EARLY
IN THE SPRING. BULK SHEAR IS ON THE POOR SIDE BUT AGAIN LR/S AND
WELL MIXED SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL FAVOR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. TSTMS
ARE FAVORED TO DEVELOP NEWD FROM THE DAVIS MTNS/UPPER TRANS PECOS
INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY INTO FAR SE PARTS OF SE NM AND THE
NW PB WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES. NAM12 IS CONSISTENT
FROM PREVIOUS 24HR MODEL RUNS TO THIS MORNINGS RUN GENERATING QPF
SE NM/NW PB. 7H WINDS ARE WEAKISH 10-15KTS AND 5H WINDS ARE EVEN
WEAKER...SUGGESTING OUTFLOW DOMINATED STORMS POTENTIALLY AIDING
IN ADDITIONAL TSRA DEVELOPMENT. MORE OF THE SAME THUR AS AFOREMENTIONED
SHRTWV TROF IS ADVERTISED TO LINGER IN WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW AS
ANOTHER SHRTWV TROF IS PROGGED TO COME OUT FROM NRN NM. FOR THE
MOST PART WEAK MID LEVEL WINDS WILL MITIGATE AN EWD MOVEMENT OF
LOW LEVEL MSTR. NAM12 DOES SHOW FORMIDABLE CINH BUT CONVERGENCE
AND SHRTWV TROF MAY OVERCOME THE CINH. TSRA ARE FAVORED TO
DEVELOP IN LOWER TRANS PECOS DURING PEAK HEATING AND THEN LIKELY
TO RE-FOCUS N-NE. WILL LEAVE LINGERING ISOLD POPS IN THE FAR E FRI
BUT MOSTLY DRY AS NW FLOW IS IN SEEN IN A WAKE OF SHRTWV TROF. 85H
THERMAL RIDGE MAY BE DIMINISHED SOME...BUT 85H TEMPS ABOVE 20C
ARE LIKELY FRI PM. DRY NW MID LEVEL FLOW SAT WITH THERMAL RIDGE
AMPLIFYING IN ERN NM. MODEL SOLNS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
FOR SUNDAY WITH GFS NOW SIMILAR TO ECMWF. IT HAS BECOME CLEAR THAT
THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDY...VERY WINDY...EVEN STRONG WINDS HAS
INCREASED. IT WILL BE HOT/DRY SUNDAY TOO...PROBABLY MORESO THAN THE
MODELS INDICATE AS IS THE USUAL CASE WITH THESE HIGH WINDS DAYS.
FOR WHAT ITS WORTH THE 06Z DGEX SHOWS THE WINDS TO SCREAM...95KTS
AT 5H ERN NM/SP AND AT LEAST M20C 85H TEMPS. GFS/ECMWF ARE FARTHER
N WITH SPEED MAX NE NM/PANHANDLE BUT WITH 30KTS AT 85H IT WILL
STILL BE WINDY/VERY WINDY ACRS SE NM/PB.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW AFTERNOON RH/S OF 5 TO 15 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS...GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS AND UPPER TRANS PECOS REGION OF WEST TEXAS BEHIND A DRYLINE.
WITH RATHER WEAK FLOW ALOFT 20 FOOT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW
20 MPH SUSTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHTNING POTENTIAL WILL BE
ION THE INCREASE ACROSS THE TRANS PECOS...SE NM...PB THROUGH THRU
THURSDAY. THE LOW RH/S WILL SPREAD EAST TO INCLUDE MUCH OF WEST
TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE DRYLINE
MOVES FURTHER EAST BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS FLOW ALOFT
WILL ALSO NOT BE VERY STRONG AND SUSTAINED 20 FOOT WINDS OF 20 MPH
OR GREATER ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. BY SUNDAY AND NEXT
MONDAY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS APPEAR TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY AS WINDS INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH DRY AIR EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS WEST
TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              62  84  60  81  /  10  20  20  20
CARLSBAD NM                52  87  55  87  /  10  20  20  10
DRYDEN TX                  64  81  64  80  /  30  30  30  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           62  87  61  85  /  20  30  30  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          57  80  57  80  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   55  84  55  81  /  10  20  20  20
MARFA TX                   47  79  48  79  /  20  50  50  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    60  84  59  80  /  10  20  20  20
ODESSA TX                  61  83  60  80  /  10  20  20  20
WINK TX                    61  88  59  88  /  10  20  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
204 PM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-281130-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
204 PM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012 /104 PM MDT TUE MAR 27 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS EVENING
EAST OF A DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM TATUM...HOBBS...MARFA...TO
CANDELARIA. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE STOCKTON PLATEAU...
BIG BEND...AND LOWER TRANS PECOS. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY FREQUENT LIGHTNING...SMALL
HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN
THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY ALONG A DRYLINE FROM THE TEXAS...NEW MEXICO BORDER
SOUTH INTO THE BIG BEND REGION. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
316 PM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012

TXZ058-074-075-272045-
PECOS-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
316 PM CDT TUE MAR 27 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTING EAST CENTRAL JEFF DAVIS...NORTH CENTRAL BREWSTER...SOUTH
CENTRAL REEVES AND WEST CENTRAL PECOS COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

AN INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF HOVEY AT 315
PM CDT...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS... HAIL... HEAVY RAIN... AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&